Boise State vs Fresno State Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NCAAF, Week 6

• The Boise State Broncos are a -10.5 point favorite vs. the Fresno State Bulldogs
• Boise State vs. Fresno State Total (Over/Under): 49.5 points
• TV Channel: CW

Boise State (4-1) visit Valley Children’s Stadium to take on Fresno State (4-1) on Oct. 10 in Fresno, CA. Kickoff is scheduled for 10:30 pm.

The Boise State Broncos are betting favorites in Week 6, with the spread sitting at -10.5 (+150).

The Boise State vs. Fresno State Over/Under is 49.5 total points.

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Boise State vs. Fresno State Odds, Spread, Over/Under:

Boise State vs Fresno State Prediction:

The winning team model predicts Boise State will win this game with 57.8% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

The winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both the Boise State Broncos and the Fresno State Bulldogs, key player performances this season and recent team trends.

Boise State vs Fresno State Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Boise State will cover the spread with 51.1% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

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Boise State Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Boise State Broncos is 3-1 against the spread this college football season (+1.9 Units / 34.8% ROI).

• Boise State is 4-1 when betting on the Moneyline for +3 Units / 6.08% ROI
• Boise State is 4-1 when betting the Over for +2.88 Units / 52.36% ROI
• Boise State is 1-4 when betting the Under for -3.42 Units / -62.18% ROI

Fresno State Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Fresno State Bulldogs is 4-1 against the spread this college football season (+2.9 Units / 52.73% ROI).

• Fresno State is 4-1 when betting on the Moneyline for +3.05 Units / 16.01% ROI
• Fresno State is 2-3 when betting the Over for -1.3 Units / -23.64% ROI
• Fresno State is 3-2 when betting the Under for +0.8 Units / 14.55% ROI

Boise State: Keys to the Game vs. Fresno State

Boise State was undefeated (5-0) when sacking the QB less than 3 times last season– best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .388

Boise State was 11-1 (.917) when converting 55% or more of its red zone chances into touchdowns last season– 2nd-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .584

Boise State was 11-1 (.917) when converting 55% or more of its red zone chances into touchdowns last season– T-4th-best in FBS; Average: .624

Boise State was undefeated (5-0) when sacking the QB less than 3 times last season– best in FBS; Average: .429

Fresno State: Keys to the Game vs. Boise State

Fresno State is 12-1 (.923) when rushing more than 30 times since the 2024 season– 2nd-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .573

Fresno State is 12-3 (.800) when allowing less than 5 yards per rush since the 2024 season– 7th-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .583

Fresno State is 12-2 (.857) when intercepting at least 1 pass since the 2024 season– 32nd-best in FBS; Average: .686

Fresno State is 12-2 (.857) when rushing for more than 100 yards since the 2024 season– 5th-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .595

Matchup Notes for Boise State vs. Fresno State

Fresno State’s QBs threw for 2,384 passing yards in 13 games (just 183.4 YPG) last season — 26th-worst among FBS teams. Boise State’s defense allowed just 175.6 passing yards per game last season — 4th-best among Pac-12 defenses.

Fresno State’s TEs had 45 receptions in 13 games (3.5 per game) last season — 3rd-best among Pac-12 TEs. Boise State’s defense allowed just 15.5 receptions per game last season — 2nd-best among Pac-12 defenses.

Fresno State’s TEs had 45 receptions in 13 games (3.5 per game) last season — 3rd-best among Pac-12 TEs. Boise State’s defense allowed just 15.5 receptions per game last season — 13th-best among FBS defenses.

Boise State had 273 receptions in 14 games (19.5 per game) last season — T-4th-worst among Pac-12 skill players. Fresno State’s defense allowed just 15.2 receptions per game last season — best among Pac-12 defenses.

Boise State averaged 12.5 yards after the catch last season — 2nd-best among Pac-12 skill players. Fresno State’s defense allowed just 10.0 RAC last season — 4th-best among Pac-12 defenses.

Boise State’s WRs averaged 15.1 yards after the catch last season — 2nd-best among Pac-12 WRs. Fresno State’s defense allowed just 11.2 RAC to WRs last season — 21st-best among FBS defenses.

Boise State Offensive Stats & Trends

Boise State RBs averaged 222.9 rushing yards per game (3,120/14) last season– best among FBS Teams; Average: 125.9

Boise State RBs rushed for 15 TDs in the 4th quarter last season– most among FBS Teams

Boise State had 273 receptions in 14 games (19.5 per game) last season — T-4th-worst among Pac-12 skill players. Fresno State’s defense allowed just 15.2 receptions per game last season — best among Pac-12 defenses.

Boise State averaged 12.5 yards after the catch last season — 2nd-best among Pac-12 skill players. Fresno State’s defense allowed just 10.0 RAC last season — 4th-best among Pac-12 defenses.

Boise State have thrown 11 TDs and no interceptions this season– T-best among FBS Offenses; Average: 2.7

Fresno State Offensive Stats & Trends

Fresno State have thrown 0 TDs on 22 pass attempts (one TD every inf Pass Attempts) in the 4th quarter this season– T-worst among FBS Offenses; Average: 17.1

Fresno State WRs had no touchdowns on 20 receptions last week– T-worst Receptions Per TD among FBS Teams; Average: 11.2

Fresno State Skill Players had no touchdowns on 24 receptions last week– T-worst Receptions Per TD among FBS Teams; Average: 11.6

Fresno State have caught 17 of 19 passes (90% Reception Pct) in the 4th quarter this season– best among FBS Offenses; Average: 62%

Fresno State have thrown 2 TDs on 104 pass attempts (one TD every 52.0 Pass Attempts) in the 4th quarter since the 2024 season– 8th-worst among FBS Offenses; Average: 19.1

Boise State Defensive Stats & Trends

Boise State sacked opposing QBs on 12% of pass attempts (56/451) last season– best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 7%

Boise State has allowed passes of 40+ yards on 10 of 145 attempts (7%) this season– worst in FBS; Average: 2%

Boise State averaged 4.0 sacks per game last season– best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 2.0

Boise State sacked opponents 9 times in the Red Zone last season– most among Non-Power Conference Teams

Boise State averaged 4.0 sacks per game last season– T-best in FBS; Average: 2.1

Fresno State Defensive Stats & Trends

Fresno State tackled opponents for a loss on 7 of 24 rushing attempts (29% TFL%) last week– T-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 13%.

Fresno State allowed 6 TD passes in close and late situations last season– T-most among Non-Power Conference Teams

Fresno State has allowed a Completion Pct of 74% (26 completions/35 attempts) in the Red Zone since the 2024 season– 2nd-worst in FBS; Average: 54%

Fresno State has 27 interceptions since the 2024 season– T-2nd-most among Non-Power Conference Teams

Fresno State allowed 14 rushing TDs on 96 carries (6.9 Carries Per TD) in the Red Zone last season– 3rd-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 4.4

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