- The Iowa State Cyclones are a -23.5 point favorite vs. the Bowling Green Falcons
- Bowling Green vs. Iowa State Total (Over/Under): 44.5 points
- TV Channel: ESPNU
Bowling Green (0-2) visit Jack Trice Stadium to take on Iowa State (1-1) on Sep. 19 in Ames, IA. Kickoff is scheduled for 12:00 pm.
The Iowa State Cyclones are betting favorites in Week 3, with the spread sitting at -23.5 (-110).
The Bowling Green vs. Iowa State Over/Under is 44.5 total points.
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Bowling Green vs. Iowa State Odds, Spread, Over/Under:
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
| Bowling Green | +23.5 -108 | 44.5 -120 | +1300 |
| Iowa State | -23.5 -110 | 44.5 +100 | -2500 |
Bowling Green vs Iowa State Prediction:
The winning team model predicts Iowa State will win this game with 94.5% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.
The winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both the Bowling Green Falcons and the Iowa State Cyclones, key player performances this season and recent team trends.
Bowling Green vs Iowa State Spread Prediction:
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Bowling Green will cover the spread with 63.9% confidence.
This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.
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Bowling Green Best Bets Today
- Bowling Green has hit the Team Total Under in 8 of their last 11 games (+4.70 Units / 37% ROI)
- Bowling Green has hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 4 of their last 6 away games (+2.15 Units / 34% ROI)
- Bowling Green has hit the Game Total Over in 4 of their last 6 away games (+1.80 Units / 27% ROI)
- Bowling Green has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 3 of their last 6 away games (+0.60 Units / 9% ROI)
- Bowling Green has hit the 1H Moneyline in 3 of their last 6 away games (+0.15 Units / 1% ROI)
Iowa State Best Bets Today
- Iowa State has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 6 of their last 10 games (+4.30 Units / 19% ROI)
- Iowa State has hit the 1H Moneyline in 7 of their last 10 games (+4.30 Units / 5% ROI)
- Iowa State has hit the Game Total Under in 7 of their last 10 games (+3.70 Units / 34% ROI)
- Iowa State have covered the 1H Spread in 7 of their last 10 games (+3.55 Units / 31% ROI)
- Iowa State has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 7 of their last 10 games (+3.55 Units / 30% ROI)
Bowling Green Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Bowling Green Falcons is 0-2 against the spread this college football season (-2.2 Units / -100% ROI).
- Bowling Green is 0-2 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.2 Units / -100% ROI
- Bowling Green is 1-1 when betting the Over for -0.1 Units / -4.55% ROI
- Bowling Green is 1-1 when betting the Under for -0.1 Units / -4.55% ROI
Iowa State Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Iowa State Cyclones is 1-1 against the spread this college football season (-0.1 Units / -4.55% ROI).
- Iowa State is 1-1 when betting on the Moneyline for +0 Units / 0% ROI
- Iowa State is 0-2 when betting the Over for -2.2 Units / -100% ROI
- Iowa State is 2-0 when betting the Under for +2 Units / 90.91% ROI
Bowling Green: Keys to the Game vs. Iowa State
Bowling Green was winless (0-5) when throwing at least 1 interception last season– T-worst in FBS; Average: .382
Bowling Green was 7-2 (.778) when rushing for more than 100 yards last season– T-11th-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .572
Bowling Green was winless (0-5) when throwing at least 1 interception last season– T-worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .314
Bowling Green is 7-15 (.318) when allowing 100 or more rushing yards since the 2024 season– 40th-worst in FBS; Average: .422
Iowa State: Keys to the Game vs. Bowling Green
Iowa State was 9-2 (.818) when sacking the QB less than 3 times last season– T-5th-best in FBS; Average: .429
Iowa State was 9-2 (.818) when sacking the QB less than 3 times last season– 3rd-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .468
Iowa State was 8-1 (.889) when intercepting at least 1 pass last season– T-12th-best in FBS; Average: .668
Iowa State was 11-3 (.786) when rushing at least 4 yards in a play 10 or more times last season– T-22nd-best in FBS; Average: .575
Matchup Notes for Bowling Green vs. Iowa State
Iowa State’s WRs gained 1,562 yards on 106 receptions (14.7 YPR) last season — 21st-best among FBS WRs. Bowling Green’s defense allowed 13.7 Yards Per Reception to WRs last season — T-26th-worst among FBS defenses.
Iowa State’s TEs had 76 receptions in 12 games (6.3 per game) last season — best among Big 12 TEs. Bowling Green’s defense allowed just 16.0 receptions per game last season — T-17th-best among FBS defenses.
Iowa State gained 2,657 yards on 210 receptions (12.7 YPR) last season — 3rd-best among Big 12 skill players. Bowling Green’s defense allowed 13.0 Yards Per Reception last season — T-12th-worst among FBS defenses.
Bowling Green’s RBs averaged 10.0 yards after the catch last season — 18th-best among FBS RBs. Iowa State’s defense allowed just 3.8 RAC to RBs last season — best among FBS defenses.
Bowling Green’s WRs had just 63.1 receiving yards per game last season — 2nd-worst among FBS WRs. Iowa State’s defense allowed 175.9 receiving yards per game to WRs last season — 28th-worst among FBS defenses.
Bowling Green’s WRs has 71 receptions in 13 games (just 5.5 per game) since the 2024 season — 4th-worst among FBS WRs. Iowa State’s defense has allowed 19.6 receptions per game since the 2024 season — 5th-worst among Big 12 defenses.
Bowling Green Offensive Stats & Trends
Bowling Green TEs averaged 9.8 receptions per game (128/13) last season– best among FBS Teams; Average: 3.4
Bowling Green WRs had just one touchdown on 59 receptions last season– 2nd-worst Receptions Per TD among FBS Teams; Average: 11.4
Bowling Green TEs were targeted 13.5 times per game (176/13) last season– highest among FBS Teams; Average: 5.1
Bowling Green’s RBs averaged 10.0 yards after the catch last season — 18th-best among FBS RBs. Iowa State’s defense allowed just 3.8 RAC to RBs last season — best among FBS defenses.
Bowling Green TEs were targeted 176 times last season– most among FBS Teams
Iowa State Offensive Stats & Trends
Iowa State threw one TD on 100 pass attempts in the 4th quarter last season– 6th-worst among FBS Offenses; Average: 19.9
Iowa State Skill Players had no touchdowns on 40 receptions in close and late situations last season– T-worst Receptions Per TD among Power Conference Teams; Average: 12.7
Iowa State’s WRs gained 1,562 yards on 106 receptions (14.7 YPR) last season — 21st-best among FBS WRs. Bowling Green’s defense allowed 13.7 Yards Per Reception to WRs last season — T-26th-worst among FBS defenses.
Iowa State Skill Players had no touchdowns on 40 receptions in close and late situations last season– T-worst Receptions Per TD among FBS Teams; Average: 11.8
Iowa State Skill Players had no touchdowns on 40 receptions in close and late situations last season– T-worst Receptions Per TD among Big 12 Teams; Average: 10.9
Bowling Green Defensive Stats & Trends
Bowling Green allowed 5 TD passes last week– T-most in FBS
Bowling Green allowed 5 TD passes last week– T-most among Non-Power Conference Teams
Bowling Green did not record a sack (28 pass attempts) in the Red Zone last season– T-worst in FBS; Average: 16.2
Bowling Green did not record a sack (28 pass attempts) in the Red Zone last season– T-worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 15.8
Bowling Green allowed a Completion Pct of just 38% (15 completions/40 attempts) in the Red Zone last season– 3rd-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 54%
Iowa State Defensive Stats & Trends
Iowa State averaged a sack every 29.7 pass attempts (386 Pass Attempts/13 Sacks) last season– 2nd-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 14.3
Iowa State did not record a sack (42 pass attempts) in the Red Zone last season– T-worst in FBS; Average: 16.2
Iowa State tackled opponents for a loss on just 4 of 49 rushing attempts (8% TFL%) in the Red Zone last season– worst in the Big 12; Average: 14%.
Iowa State averaged a sack every 29.7 pass attempts (386 Pass Attempts/13 Sacks) last season– worst in the Big 12; Average: 15.5
Iowa State averaged a sack every 29.7 pass attempts (386 Pass Attempts/13 Sacks) last season– 5th-worst in FBS; Average: 14.7
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