College Football Expert Picks: Week 7 ATS Predictions & Best Bets

Week 6 was a strong week of college football betting. I correctly identified JMU, LSU, and Pittsburgh as public favorites who were in danger of outright losses. 

Two of those three moneyline underdogs connected, and Georgia Southern covered every number pretty easily.

As I covered in my early Week 7 college football bets on Tuesday, I’m going back to the well on a JMU fade. But I’ve got more betting angles I like this week, which I’ll cover in the article below.

Read on for my college football Week 7 best bets!

Kansas vs. Kansas State Prediction

I’m not sure what’s going on with Kansas State since Big 12 play started, but the Wildcats looked completely lifeless in last week’s home loss to Houston. It’s hard to go back to the well with a K-State bet without seeing some improvement first.

Maybe a game against rival Kansas will shake Collin Klein’s club out of its funk.

Regardless, I’m not interested in a side in this game, even if Kansas State has won 17 straight in this rivalry. The over has cashed in four straight games and five of the last six. Both offenses continue to play ahead of their defenses this year, too, with both teams ranking in the bottom half of FBS for EPA/pass allowed.

This number is up slightly from its opening position of 54.5. And while 55 is something of a key number in college football totals, that’s not enough to stop me from liking this game. 

Prediction: Over 55.5

Ole Miss vs. Missouri Prediction

Missouri might not be a sexy brand in college football, but if you watch the Tigers, they’re playing like a top 12 team. Austin Simmons operates the passing game efficiently, and Jamal Roberts is second in FBS in carries and rushing yards. Defensively, the Tigers are 16th in success rate, 10th in EPA allowed on early downs, and sport top 25 metrics in EPA/allowed per pass and EPA/allowed per rush.

That kind of balance is more than I can say for Ole Miss. Trinidad Chambliss gives Ole Miss a top 10 offensive success rate, and the Rebs are strong at stringing drives together with a good conversion rate on third and fourth down. The issue is the defense which is one of the worst units in the SEC. It ranks outside the top 100 nationally in Net EPA/drive, EPA/rush allowed, and defensive success rate on run plays.

When you put all that together, this looks like a game where Roberts can simply line up and gash Ole Miss over and over again. I like Missouri football odds in both spread and moneyline markets. 

Prediction: Missouri +5.5; Missouri +180

Baylor vs. TCU Prediction

Baylor has the look of a team that’s being slept on just a little bit. Dave Aranda entered the year as an awkward maybe-they-should-have-fired-him guy, and Baylor promptly lost on the road at Auburn to start the season on a botched two-point conversion with nine seconds left in regulation. It’s a win if DJ Lagway doesn’t badly misthrow the ball. 

Since then, Baylor has mostly been off the radar. But the Bears showed their strong ceiling in their 55-19 win at Arizona State in Week 6. Last week, they were on bye.

With the momentum generated entering the off week, I think Baylor comes out this week and savages a TCU team that just doesn’t seem to have pieces that work together. The offensive line has been bad in Fort Worth this season, and everything else around it has fallen apart as a result. 

Baylor should own the line of scrimmage and win this game going away. This number is light because the market just hasn’t paid close enough attention to Baylor.

Prediction: Baylor -6

Oklahoma vs. Kentucky Prediction

I love this game because the number says it all. Kentucky surged to a No. 15 ranking after back-to-back overtime wins via two-point conversion. At 5-1, the Wildcats are literally two plays away from 3-3. 

Thus, as Kentucky hits the road for Norman this week, the market clearly feels that the Wildcats are supremely regression-bound. Not only are they a dog in this game, but they were a full touchdown underdog for the first half of the week.

I was interested in the Oklahoma side of this game, but I didn’t want to lay the full seven. Now that the number is 6.5, I’m quite happy to jump in and take a cue from this Kentucky-pessimistic market. 

Prediction: Oklahoma -6.5

UCLA vs. Wisconsin Prediction

Holy rat line. Wisconsin opened at +3.5 and is down to +2.5. At times, BetMGM is showing a super-heavy +3 (-125), but the market has functionally gone to 2.5 for this game.

This is quite the development for a team that is undefeated and just snapped a pretty long home winning streak for Oregon. Your personal read of this number should say a lot about your approach to this game.

My guess is many people will swallow the number with UCLA – now a public team – without much thought. 

Some people may want to stay away and attribute the light market to the injury to UCLA quarterback Nico Iamaleava, who is now expected to miss the rest of this season with a knee injury.

But if you’ve watched UCLA, it’s not like the Bruins were winning specifically because of Iamaleava. UCLA is following a classic Big Ten success model under Bob Chesney, running the ball and playing great defense. Iamaleava’s QBR of 28.8 ranks 130th in FBS this year – his absence is virtually irrelevant to the handicap.

No, this number is lower and moving lower because the sharps like Wisconsin. Maybe they don’t believe UCLA can manage the success of the win at Oregon, or maybe this is about Wisconsin’s continuing status as an overlooked, undervalued team. 

This is another game where I like both the spread and the moneyline, but I wouldn’t blame you if you wanted to take your foot off the accelerator, avoid the moneyline, and buy this up to Wisconsin +3. 

Prediction: Wisconsin +2.5; Wisconsin +115

College Football Week 7 Best Bets

• Kansas/Kansas State Over 55.5
• Missouri +5
• Baylor -6
• Oklahoma -6.5
• Wisconsin +3