College Football Expert Picks: Week 9 ATS Predictions & Best Bets

The final month of the regular season can be a dangerous time for college football betting.

After eight weeks of results, bettors feel like they know who teams are. But injuries, motivation, coaching changes, and a variety of other factors make this a dangerous time to wade into the college football odds market. Treat favorites with due skepticism from here on out.

As always, this column contains some of my favorite betting angles for Saturday, but make sure you revisit my early Week 9 college football bets to get a sense of my personal betting priorities.

Notre Dame vs. Navy Prediction

On paper, a neutral-site game against Navy that’s sandwiched between high-leverage games against BYU and Miami sounds like an all-time sandwich spot for Notre Dame.

But let’s consider a couple reasons why that might not be the right lens for this game. Notre Dame was on bye last week, so they’re surely coming into this game with a higher threshold of focus.

The Fighting Irish are surely aware of the importance of next week’s game against the Hurricanes, but the loss to BYU leaves Notre Dame with zero margin for error. In fact, Notre Dame probably needs to get back to drubbing bad G6 teams if it wants to maintain its faltering playoff trajectory.

Let’s have a reminder here that Notre Dame beat Stanford by 51, Purdue by 39, Rice by 52, and Wisconsin – now in the AP Top 25 as of this week – by 28.

Normally when laying a big number like this against a service academy, the thing you have to be worried about is limited possessions. But this isn’t your daddy’s Middies. Navy opponents have cracked 35 points in half the team’s FBS games this year.

I like Notre Dame to put its best foot forward against a bad Navy defense, setting up next week’s likely College GameDay location.

Prediction: Notre Dame -30

Western Michigan vs. Bowling Green Prediction

This is the time of year it becomes very profitable to start betting MAC underdogs. So even without any additional context, Bowling Green is pretty interesting.

When you dive into the seasons these two teams have had, it becomes clear just how large each team’s Week 1 results still loom. Western Michigan had the infamous loss to big brother in Ann Arbor and accrued market credit for what was functionally a victory over a Big Ten team.

Meanwhile, Bowling Green lost to FCS Tarleton.

But since then, Western Michigan is 1-5 against the spread, while the Falcons have been pretty close to a .500 cover team. That’s because they’re being handicapped like a bottom-feeder while mostly playing one-score games against conference opponents. Their only multi-possession losses this year have been to P4 teams in September.

Given Western Michigan’s inability to win by margin and Bowling Green’s consistency in playing tight games, this is a double-green light for me. It’s actually my favorite game of the week.

Prediction: Bowling Green +13

Michigan vs. Rutgers Prediction

Michigan is 6-1 to the under this year, and it still feels like the totals market isn’t diving low enough.

The Wolverines ranks second nationally in Net EPA/drive when on defense and 102nd when on offense.

Or: they rank sixth in EPA/rush allowed on defense but 104th in EPA/rush on offense.

Or: they rank 101st in EPA on first and second down on offense, but 13th in EPA allowed on first and second down while on defense.

Pick whichever one you like. Michigan tends to cash unders because it’s a badly one-sided team, and the opponents don’t mess with that formula too much.

Prediction: Under 46.5

Georgia vs. Florida Prediction

I like the theory that’s propagated this week that Florida’s offense will be successful against Georgia’s defense because of offensive coordinator Buster Faulkner. The former Georgia Tech play caller got plenty of practice playing against Georgia when he was in Atlanta, and the track record is very strong.

If he could be successful with the tools and players at Georgia Tech, what will he do with Florida’s players this week?

I like Florida as a dog, but I’d also look at the over. It’s not like Florida’s run defense is going to stop Gunner Stockton.

Prediction: Florida +11.5

New Mexico vs. San Jose State Prediction

Like Michigan, the San Jose State Spartans are another bulletproof under team. So far, they’re the only college football team to cash seven unders.

I’m simply staying on the bandwagon until the numbers make absolutely no sense, or until said wagon crashes into a ditch.

Prediction: Under 41.5

College Football Week 9 Best Bets

• Notre Dame -30
• Bowling Green +13
• Michigan/Rutger Under 46.5
• Florida +11.5
• New Mexico/San Jose State Under 41.5