Indiana vs. Oregon: Prediction, Betting Preview for Peach Bowl CFP Semifinal

Buckle up, everybody. After Thursday’s appetizer between Miami and Ole Miss, Indiana and Oregon are set for the main course on Friday night.

This Big Ten rematch is the game of the week and the intro to an epic weekend of football betting in the NFL playoffs. 

Whoever wins will almost certainly be the national title favorite at online sportsbooks everywhere, including BetMGM. 

Indiana vs. Oregon Odds

• Point Spread: Indiana -3.5
• Moneyline: Indiana -180  |  Oregon +150
• Over/Under: 48.5

Indiana vs. Oregon Preview

Indiana is the No. 1 team, national championship favorite, and – perhaps most importantly for this handicap – the only team that’s beaten Oregon all year.

In that Oct. 11 clash, Indiana scored first, led 13-10 at halftime, and rattled off 10 unanswered points in the fourth quarter to seize control of the game. They walked out of Eugene with a 30-20 win.

Handicappers here must start with a fundamental question: If Indiana won a true road game in the middle of the season, what’s the road map to an Oregon win at a neutral site in Georgia?

Oregon has probably gotten better since Week 7. But has anyone improved more than Curt Cignetti’s Indiana team, or more than Heisman winner Fernando Mendoza?

Oregon reached the semifinals after racing past an overmatched JMU team, then bludgeoning Texas Tech’s offense. Those were two fundamentally flawed teams, which handicappers were quick to point out as soon as the initial CFP bracket was released. It’s why Oregon became such a popular futures play. 

But Indiana is the real deal. They’re the most complete and best-coached team in college football this year. The 3.5-point spread just isn’t much of a tax to pay to back the last undefeated team.

In terms of game script, I’m expecting a lot of offensive probing and defensive success early on. Oregon’s offense needed a lot of possessions to get going against a top-level defense like what Texas Tech had, and I’m expecting a similar outcome here. Cignetti’s scheme fits and Oregon’s team speed – plus the fact that this is a semifinal rematch! – should result in plenty of early punts. 

There were 23 points in the first half of the Week 7 game between Indiana and Oregon.

Indiana vs. Oregon Prediction

I am predicting a win and cover for Indiana. (I have the Hoosiers winning it all in my college football national championship odds breakdown, so this probably is not a shock for many of you.)

I also liked the initial first-half under at 24.5. I still like it at 23.5, but I wouldn’t go any farther. 

A same-game parlay for these two legs together pays +240. An SGP with the 1H under and Indiana moneyline is +175. 

Pick: Indiana -3.5; 1H Under 23.5