Kansas State vs Cincinnati Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NCAAF, Week 4

• The Kansas State Wildcats are a -6.5 point favorite vs. the Cincinnati Bearcats
• Kansas State vs. Cincinnati Total (Over/Under): 55.5 points
• TV Channel: ESPN2

Kansas State (3-0) visit Nippert Stadium to take on Cincinnati (3-0) on Sep. 26 in Cincinnati, OH. Kickoff is scheduled for 7:00 pm.

The Kansas State Wildcats are betting favorites in Week 4, with the spread sitting at -6.5 (-108).

The Kansas State vs. Cincinnati Over/Under is 55.5 total points.

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Kansas State vs. Cincinnati Odds, Spread, Over/Under:

Kansas State vs Cincinnati Prediction:

The winning team model predicts Kansas State will win this game with 57.8% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

The winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both the Kansas State Wildcats and the Cincinnati Bearcats, key player performances this season and recent team trends.

Kansas State vs Cincinnati Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Kansas State will cover the spread with 52.0% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

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Kansas State Best Bets Today

• Kansas State has hit the 1H Moneyline in 7 of their last 10 games (+9.55 Units / 24% ROI)
• Kansas State has hit the Game Total Over in 8 of their last 11 games (+4.70 Units / 39% ROI)
• Kansas State has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 8 of their last 11 games (+4.65 Units / 35% ROI)
• Kansas State has hit the Moneyline in 7 of their last 10 games (+4.60 Units / 9% ROI)
• Kansas State have covered the Spread in 7 of their last 11 games (+2.55 Units / 21% ROI)

Cincinnati Best Bets Today

• Cincinnati has hit the Game Total Under in 6 of their last 9 games at home (+2.70 Units / 27% ROI)
• Cincinnati has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 6 of their last 9 games at home (+2.50 Units / 24% ROI)
• Cincinnati has hit the Moneyline in 7 of their last 12 games (+1.70 Units / 4% ROI)
• Cincinnati has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 5 of their last 9 games at home (+1.65 Units / 15% ROI)
• Cincinnati has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 6 of their last 9 games at home (+1.00 Units / 3% ROI)

Kansas State Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Kansas State Wildcats is 2-1 against the spread this college football season (+0.9 Units / 27.27% ROI).

• Kansas State is 2-0 when betting on the Moneyline for +2 Units / 8.89% ROI
• Kansas State is 2-1 when betting the Over for +0.9 Units / 27.27% ROI
• Kansas State is 1-2 when betting the Under for -1.2 Units / -36.36% ROI

Cincinnati Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Cincinnati Bearcats is 2-1 against the spread this college football season (+0.9 Units / 27.11% ROI).

• Cincinnati is 2-0 when betting on the Moneyline for +2 Units / 21.32% ROI
• Cincinnati is 2-1 when betting the Over for +0.98 Units / 30.43% ROI
• Cincinnati is 1-2 when betting the Under for -1.2 Units / -35.5% ROI

Kansas State: Keys to the Game vs. Cincinnati

Kansas State was undefeated (8-0) when intercepting at least 1 pass last season– T-best in FBS; Average: .668

Kansas State was 4-1 (.800) when making 5 or more explosive passes in a game last season– T-14th-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .631

Kansas State was 4-1 (.800) when having a turnover margin within one of the opposing team last season– T-9th-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .578

Kansas State was undefeated (8-0) when intercepting at least 1 pass last season– T-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .688

Cincinnati: Keys to the Game vs. Kansas State

Cincinnati was winless (0-5) when not forcing and recovering a fumble last season– T-worst in FBS; Average: .460

Cincinnati was winless (0-5) when not forcing and recovering a fumble last season– T-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .492

Cincinnati is winless (0-5) when throwing at least 1 interception this season– T-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .436

Cincinnati is 2-5 (.286) when not forcing and recovering a fumble this season– T-12th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .524

Matchup Notes for Kansas State vs. Cincinnati

Cincinnati’s WRs had 14 receiving touchdowns in the Red Zone last season — 4th-most among Power 5 WRs. Kansas State’s defense allowed 5 receiving touchdowns in the Red Zone last season — T-2nd-fewest among P5 defenses.

Cincinnati’s WRs had 14 receiving touchdowns in the Red Zone last season — most among Big 12 WRs. Kansas State’s defense allowed 5 receiving touchdowns in the Red Zone last season — T-2nd-fewest among P5 defenses.

Cincinnati’s WRs had 14 receiving touchdowns in the Red Zone last season — most among Big 12 WRs. Kansas State’s defense allowed 5 receiving touchdowns in the Red Zone last season — T-fewest among Big 12 defenses.

Kansas State’s WRs gained 1,611 yards on 114 receptions (14.1 YPR) last season — T-34th-best among FBS WRs. Cincinnati’s defense allowed just 11.0 Yards Per Reception last season — T-5th-best among Big 12 defenses.

Kansas State’s WRs has 154 receptions in 15 games (just 10.3 per game) since the 2024 season — T-32nd-worst among FBS WRs. Cincinnati’s defense has allowed 19.9 receptions per game since the 2024 season — T-32nd-worst among FBS defenses.

Kansas State’s RBs gained 169 yards on 28 receptions (just 6.0 YPR) last season — T-25th-worst among FBS RBs. Cincinnati’s defense allowed just 11.0 Yards Per Reception last season — T-5th-best among Big 12 defenses.

Kansas State Offensive Stats & Trends

Kansas State TEs caught 11 touchdown passes in the Red Zone last season– most among Big 12 Teams

Kansas State TEs caught 11 touchdown passes in the Red Zone last season– most among Power Conference Teams

Kansas State TEs caught 13 touchdown passes last season– 2nd-most among FBS Teams

Kansas State’s WRs gained 1,611 yards on 114 receptions (14.1 YPR) last season — T-34th-best among FBS WRs. Cincinnati’s defense allowed just 11.0 Yards Per Reception last season — T-5th-best among Big 12 defenses.

Kansas State RBs averaged 7.8 yards from scrimmage per touch (1,503 yards / 193 touches) in the 2nd half last season– 2nd-best among FBS Teams; Average: 5.5

Cincinnati Offensive Stats & Trends

Cincinnati RBs averaged 7.3 Yards per Carry (601 yards/82 carries) in the 4th quarter last season– T-3rd-best among FBS Teams; Average: 5.2

Cincinnati RBs have averaged 7.2 Yards per Carry (1,025 yards/143 carries) in the 1st half this season– 2nd-best among FBS Teams; Average: 5.0

Cincinnati have been sacked 2 times on 82 pass attempts (one sack every 41.0 pass attempts) on 3rd down this season– 6th-best among FBS Offenses; Average: 10.9

Cincinnati RBs averaged 8.4 yards from scrimmage per touch (159 yards / 19 touches) on 3rd and short last season– 2nd-best among FBS Teams; Average: 4.4

Cincinnati RBs averaged 9.2 yards from scrimmage per touch (379 yards / 41 touches) on 3rd down last season– 3rd-best among FBS Teams; Average: 5.6

Kansas State Defensive Stats & Trends

Kansas State has sacked opponents 6 times in the Red Zone this season– most in the Big 12

Kansas State opponents has averaged 7.4 Passing Attempts per TD (37 Pass Attempts/5 Passing TDs) in the Red Zone this season– 2nd-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 4.0

Kansas State opponents averaged 7.4 Passing Attempts per TD (37 Pass Attempts/5 Passing TDs) in the Red Zone last season– 2nd-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 4.0

Kansas State has no interceptions (37 pass attempts) in the Red Zone this season– T-worst in the Big 12; Average: 26.8

Kansas State allowed 2.2 yards from scrimmage per touch (108 yards / 50 touches) in the Red Zone in the 2023 season– best in the Big 12; Average: 3.8

Cincinnati Defensive Stats & Trends

Cincinnati has allowed 10.0 touchdowns per interception (20 TDs allowed, and 2 INT) this season– worst in FBS; Average: 1.8

Cincinnati has allowed 10.0 touchdowns per interception (20 TDs allowed, and 2 INT) this season– worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 1.8

Cincinnati has allowed 10.0 touchdowns per interception (20 TDs allowed, and 2 INT) this season– worst in the Big 12; Average: 1.6

Cincinnati has intercepted 2 of 388 attempts (194.0 pass attempts per int.) this season– worst in FBS; Average: 38.5

Cincinnati intercepted 2 of 388 attempts (194.0 pass attempts per int.) last season– worst in FBS; Average: 38.5

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