- The TCU Horned Frogs are a -9.5 point favorite vs. the Kansas State Wildcats
- Kansas State vs. TCU Total (Over/Under): 46.5 points
- TV Channel: ESPNU
Kansas State (4-5) visit Amon G. Carter Stadium to take on TCU (4-5) on Nov. 14 in Fort Worth, TX. Kickoff is scheduled for 2:00 pm.
The TCU Horned Frogs are betting favorites in Week 11, with the spread sitting at -9.5 (-130).
The Kansas State vs. TCU Over/Under is 46.5 total points.
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Kansas State vs. TCU Odds, Spread, Over/Under:
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
| Kansas State | +9.5 -102 | 46.5 -120 | +310 |
| TCU | -9.5 -130 | 46.5 -108 | -400 |
Kansas State vs TCU Prediction:
The winning team model predicts Syracuse will win this game with 51.2% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.
The winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both the Kansas State Wildcats and the TCU Horned Frogs, key player performances this season and recent team trends.
Kansas State vs TCU Spread Prediction:
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Syracuse will cover the spread with 50.2% confidence.
This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.
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Kansas State Best Bets Today
- Kansas State has hit the 1H Moneyline in 6 of their last 11 games (+5.93 Units / 14% ROI)
- Kansas State has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 4 of their last 5 away games (+2.80 Units / 49% ROI)
- Kansas State has hit the Game Total Over in 7 of their last 12 games (+1.55 Units / 12% ROI)
- Kansas State has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 7 of their last 12 games (+1.25 Units / 9% ROI)
- Kansas State have covered the 1H Spread in 3 of their last 5 away games (+0.60 Units / 10% ROI)
TCU Best Bets Today
- TCU has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 9 of their last 13 games (+4.40 Units / 29% ROI)
- TCU has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 6 of their last 8 games at home (+3.85 Units / 40% ROI)
- TCU has hit the Team Total Under in 8 of their last 13 games (+2.55 Units / 17% ROI)
- TCU has hit the Game Total Under in 8 of their last 13 games (+2.50 Units / 17% ROI)
- TCU has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 6 of their last 13 games (+1.54 Units / 1% ROI)
Kansas State Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Kansas State Wildcats is 3-5 against the spread this college football season (-2.55 Units / -25.76% ROI).
- Kansas State is 3-5 when betting on the Moneyline for -3.82 Units / -12.39% ROI
- Kansas State is 6-3 when betting the Over for +2.75 Units / 27.92% ROI
- Kansas State is 3-6 when betting the Under for -3.6 Units / -36.18% ROI
TCU Against the Spread (ATS) Record
TCU Horned Frogs is 4-4 against the spread this college football season (-0.38 Units / -3.84% ROI).
- TCU is 3-5 when betting on the Moneyline for -6.65 Units / -26.08% ROI
- TCU is 2-7 when betting the Over for -5.67 Units / -57.45% ROI
- TCU is 7-2 when betting the Under for +4.8 Units / 48.34% ROI
Kansas State: Keys to the Game vs. TCU
Kansas State was undefeated (8-0) when intercepting at least 1 pass last season– T-best in FBS; Average: .668
Kansas State was undefeated (8-0) when intercepting at least 1 pass last season– T-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .688
Kansas State is 7-2 (.778) when making 3 or more explosive runs in a game since the 2024 season– T-37th-best in FBS; Average: .649
Kansas State was 8-3 (.727) when allowing less than 50% of third down conversion opportunities last season– T-38th-best in FBS; Average: .602
TCU: Keys to the Game vs. Kansas State
TCU is undefeated (9-0) when rushing for 120 or more yards since the 2024 season– T-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .740
TCU was undefeated (8-0) when intercepting at least 1 pass last season– T-best in FBS; Average: .668
TCU is 10-7 (.588) when sacking the QB less than 3 times since the 2024 season– 32nd-best in FBS; Average: .427
TCU was 7-4 (.636) when their opponent rushed more than 30 times last season– T-31st-best in FBS; Average: .442
Matchup Notes for Kansas State vs. TCU
TCU’s QBs threw for 3,754 passing yards in 13 games (288.8 YPG) last season — 8th-best among FBS teams. Kansas State’s defense allowed 222.4 passing yards per game last season — 5th-worst among Big 12 defenses.
TCU’s WRs had 225.2 receiving yards per game last season — 2nd-best among Power 5 WRs. Kansas State’s defense allowed 222.4 receiving yards per game last season — 5th-worst among Big 12 defenses.
TCU had 290.5 receiving yards per game last season — 2nd-best among Big 12 skill players. Kansas State’s defense allowed 222.4 receiving yards per game last season — 5th-worst among Big 12 defenses.
Kansas State’s WRs gained 1,611 yards on 114 receptions (14.1 YPR) last season — T-4th-best among Big 12 WRs. TCU’s defense allowed 12.2 Yards Per Reception last season — T-4th-worst among Big 12 defenses.
Kansas State’s WRs gained 1,611 yards on 114 receptions (14.1 YPR) last season — T-4th-best among Big 12 WRs. TCU’s defense allowed 12.2 Yards Per Reception last season — T-32nd-worst among FBS defenses.
Kansas State’s WRs gained 1,611 yards on 114 receptions (14.1 YPR) last season — T-34th-best among FBS WRs. TCU’s defense allowed 12.2 Yards Per Reception last season — T-4th-worst among Big 12 defenses.
Kansas State Offensive Stats & Trends
Kansas State WRs have averaged just 10.9 yards per reception (1,269 yards/116 catches) this season– worst among Big 12 Teams; Average: 14.2
Kansas State TEs caught 11 touchdown passes in the Red Zone last season– most among Big 12 Teams
Kansas State TEs caught 11 touchdown passes in the Red Zone last season– most among Power Conference Teams
Kansas State RBs averaged 6.6 Yards per Carry (2,140 yards/323 carries) last season– 2nd-best among FBS Teams; Average: 5.1
Kansas State WRs have averaged just 10.0 yards per reception (281 yards/28 catches) in the 4th quarter this season– worst among Big 12 Teams; Average: 14.3
TCU Offensive Stats & Trends
TCU WRs have averaged a touchdown every 27.5 receptions (110 Rec/4 TDs) this season– worst Receptions Per TD among Big 12 Teams; Average: 10.5
TCU TEs have 14 receptions for 20 or more yards this season– most among Big 12 Teams
TCU TEs were targeted 19 times last week– most among Big 12 Teams
TCU have thrown 0 TDs on 60 pass attempts (one TD every inf Pass Attempts) in close and late situations this season– T-worst among FBS Offenses; Average: 19.1
TCU WRs have averaged a touchdown every 27.5 receptions (110 Rec/4 TDs) this season– 2nd-worst Receptions Per TD among Power Conference Teams; Average: 10.6
Kansas State Defensive Stats & Trends
Kansas State allowed 5 TD passes last week– T-most in FBS
Kansas State has tackled opponents for a loss on 6 of 18 rushing attempts (33% TFL%) on 3rd and short this season– T-2nd-best in FBS; Average: 10%.
Kansas State allowed 5 TD passes last week– T-most among Power Conference Teams
Kansas State allowed 4 TD passes in the Red Zone last week– most in the Big 12
Kansas State has allowed 6.5 touchdowns per interception (13 TDs allowed, and 2 INT) this season– T-4th-worst in FBS; Average: 1.9
TCU Defensive Stats & Trends
TCU opponents has averaged 43.5 Passing Attempts per TD (261 Pass Attempts/6 Passing TDs) this season– 6th-best in FBS; Average: 21.2
TCU has not allowed a pass completion for 20+ yards (48 attempts) on 3rd and long this season– T-best in FBS; Average: 9%
TCU tackled opponents for a loss on just 63 of 496 rushing attempts (13% TFL%) last season– 2nd-worst in the Big 12; Average: 15%.
TCU’s opponents attempted two-point conversions on 20% of PATs last season– highest in the Big 12; Average: 7%
TCU has tackled opponents for a loss on 5 of 28 rushing attempts (18% TFL%) on 3rd and short this season– 4th-best in the Big 12; Average: 12%.
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