Liberty vs. Coastal Carolina: Odds & Prediction for Thursday G6 Game

This week’s college football edition of Thursday Night Football should be a good one. Conference USA favorite Liberty goes on the road to face an underrated Coastal Carolina team still looking for its first FBS win of the season. 

BetMGM has NCAA football odds available for all the Week 4 college football action.

Liberty vs. Coastal Carolina Odds

• Point Spread: Liberty -2.5
• Moneyline: Liberty -135  |  Coastal Carolina +110
• Over/Under: 49.5

Liberty vs. Coastal Carolina: Prediction and Preview

This is the Jamey Chadwell Bowl. The 49-year-old won a Sun Belt championship and multiple National Coach of the Year awards during his four-year tenure at Coastal Carolina, which ran from 2019-22. He left for Liberty and its superior resource pool in 2023. 

Chadwell has had some success at Liberty, but the Flames are 9-12 since the midpoint of the 2024 season. That includes a 3-8 mark in true road games and a 0-3 mark against the Sun Belt.

Even as a road opponent, Coastal offers Liberty the exact kind of beatable opponent the Flames need to exorcise some road demons and get ready for conference play on the right foot. 

The Chanticleers are a work in progress under first-year coach Ryan Beard, who came east from Missouri State at the end of last season. Beard is a good coach who helped the Chants put together a nice comeback at West Virginia in Week 1. But at the bottom, Coastal is still a rebuilding team in search of its first FBS win of the year.

On the field, the most dangerous matchup here is Liberty’s passing game against Coastal Carolina’s back end. Liberty ranks 11th in EPA/pass, generating 0.48 expected points per attempt. Coastal ranks outside the top 100 in EPA allowed per pass.

Liberty is vulnerable on the ground, where its interior defense can be pushed around. But it’s not clear whether Coastal currently has the offensive line to take advantage of that potential weakness – Coastal’s success rate on run plays is 39.6%, which ranks outside the top 100 FBS teams. 

Liberty vs. Coastal Carolina Prediction

I am predicting a Liberty win and cover on Thursday night. 

Some underdog hunters will be interested in playing the home dog angle with Coastal Carolina. Generally, I’d be interested in getting a +115 price to go against a team that’s lost 8 of its last 11 road games.

But Liberty clearly found something in last week’s offensive performance against Ball State, so I doubt a still-raw Coastal Carolina team is the right time to go back to the well in betting against Liberty football odds on the road. 

Prediction: Liberty -2.5