While conference play has given college football fans some early appetizers, Week 4 is when league play will really start to get underway.Â
Today’s two early bets feature a pair of important conference games, featuring four teams currently ranked in the AP Top 25.Â
If you like these bets, there’s a strong potential for these college football lines to move throughout the week. There’s value in locking in a good position now.
Michigan vs. Iowa Prediction
Iowa has historically been lousy against Michigan, both in Ann Arbor and elsewhere. So if you want to jump back on the rapidly refilling Michigan bandwagon, there’s a pretty good case for wading into the Michigan vs. Iowa odds and laying the number.
But as regular readers know, I am a sucker for a low total, and this one is screaming at me.Â
Iowa and Michigan have each played one game against Power 4 competition so far. Those games averaged 28 points.
There’s also history for Michigan and Iowa. Five of the last six games in this matchup have gone under the total.
I’m still waiting on some advanced analytics I like to use to get enough sample size for this season to be meaningful. In the meantime, I like the under here – and with this total already in the 30s, it’s important for this number not to go any lower.Â
Prediction: Under 38.5
USC vs. Oregon Prediction
In two games against FBS competition this year, Oregon has been outplayed by Boise State and lost as a four-touchdown favorite at Oklahoma State.
USC has looked like a legitimate playoff team and can put itself in position with a win against Oregon this week. The Ducks are clearly struggling after losing former OC Will Stein to Kentucky and former DC Tosh Lupoi to Cal.Â
I completely disagree with the market on this, and I suspect USC will take action throughout the week, closing closer to -105. For now, you can get USC to win as a plus-money bet, but who knows how long that will last?
Prediction: USC +120
Early College Football Bets for Week 4
- Michigan/Iowa Under 38.5
- USC +120
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