Louisiana Tech vs Baylor Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets โ€“ NCAAF, Week 3

Baylor head coach Dave Aranda yells from the sideline during the first half of an NCAA college football game against Albany in Waco, Texas, Saturday, Sept. 3, 2022. (AP Photo/LM Otero)
(AP Photo/LM Otero)
Week 8 Odds Boost
  • The Baylor Bears are a -19 point favorite vs. the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs
  • Louisiana Tech vs. Baylor Total (Over/Under): 53.5 points
  • TV Channel: ESPNU

Louisiana Tech (1-1) visit McLane Stadium to take on Baylor (1-1) on Sep. 19 in Waco, TX. Kickoff is scheduled for 4:00 pm.

The Baylor Bears are betting favorites in Week 3, with the spread sitting at -19 (-110).

The Louisiana Tech vs. Baylor Over/Under is 53.5 total points.

Bet now on Baylor Bears vs Louisiana Tech Bulldogs & all NCAAF games with BetMGM

Louisiana Tech vs. Baylor Odds, Spread, Over/Under:

SpreadTotal (O/U)Moneyline
Louisiana Tech+19 -10853.5 -110+750
Baylor -19 -11053.5 -108-1100

Louisiana Tech vs Baylor Prediction:

The winning team model predicts Baylor will win this game with 89.0% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

The winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs and the Baylor Bears, key player performances this season and recent team trends.

Louisiana Tech vs Baylor Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Baylor will cover the spread with 65.1% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.


Bet now on Baylor Bears vs Louisiana Tech Bulldogs and all games with BetMGM


  • Louisiana Tech has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in their last 6 away games (+6.15 Units / 93% ROI)
  • Louisiana Tech has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 5 of their last 6 away games (+3.90 Units / 57% ROI)
  • Louisiana Tech have covered the 1Q Spread in 8 of their last 12 games (+3.40 Units / 24% ROI)
  • Louisiana Tech has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 4 of their last 6 away games (+2.00 Units / 26% ROI)
  • Louisiana Tech has hit the Game Total Under in 4 of their last 6 away games (+1.80 Units / 27% ROI)
  • Baylor has hit the Game Total Under in 7 of their last 11 games (+2.60 Units / 21% ROI)
  • Baylor has hit the Team Total Under in 7 of their last 11 games (+2.35 Units / 18% ROI)
  • Baylor has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 6 of their last 11 games (+0.35 Units / 3% ROI)

Louisiana Tech Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Louisiana Tech Bulldogs is 2-0 against the spread this college football season (+2 Units / 90.91% ROI).

  • Louisiana Tech is 0-0 when betting on the Moneyline for +0 Units / 0% ROI
  • Louisiana Tech is 2-0 when betting the Over for +2 Units / 90.91% ROI
  • Louisiana Tech is 0-2 when betting the Under for -2.2 Units / -100% ROI

Baylor Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Baylor Bears is 2-0 against the spread this college football season (+2 Units / 93.02% ROI).

  • Baylor is 0-1 when betting on the Moneyline for -1 Units / -100% ROI
  • Baylor is 0-2 when betting the Over for -2.15 Units / -100% ROI
  • Baylor is 2-0 when betting the Under for +2 Units / 88.89% ROI

Louisiana Tech: Keys to the Game vs. Baylor

Louisiana Tech was winless (0-2) when allowing an average of more than 5 yards on first down plays last season– T-worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .400

Louisiana Tech was winless (0-6) when allowing 22 or more points last season– T-worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .259

Louisiana Tech was 1-6 (.143) when allowing 200 or more passing yards last season– 12th-worst in FBS; Average: .481

Louisiana Tech was 3-8 (.273) when their opponent rushed more than 30 times last season– T-38th-worst in FBS; Average: .442

Baylor: Keys to the Game vs. Louisiana Tech

Baylor was 7-4 (.636) when their opponent rushed more than 30 times last season– T-31st-best in FBS; Average: .442

Baylor was 2-7 (.222) when rushing more than 30 times in the 2023 season– 2nd-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .665

Baylor was 2-5 (.286) when averaging less than 5 yards per rush last season– T-37th-worst in FBS; Average: .420

Baylor was 1-4 (.200) when in a one score game last season– T-6th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .514

Matchup Notes for Louisiana Tech vs. Baylor

Baylor’s QBs threw for 3,715 passing yards in 12 games (309.6 YPG) last season — 4th-best among FBS teams. Louisiana Tech’s defense allowed 240.3 passing yards per game last season — 30th-worst among FBS defenses.

Baylor’s TEs had 61 receptions in 12 games (5.1 per game) last season — T-5th-best among Big 12 TEs. Louisiana Tech’s defense allowed 20.5 receptions per game last season — T-31st-worst among FBS defenses.

Baylor’s offense threw for 3,715 passing yards in 12 games (309.6 YPG) last season — 4th-best among FBS offenses. Louisiana Tech’s defense allowed 240.3 passing yards per game last season — 30th-worst among FBS defenses.

Louisiana Tech’s offense threw for 2,130 passing yards in 13 games (just 163.8 YPG) last season — 17th-worst among FBS offenses. Baylor’s defense allowed just 194.9 passing yards per game last season — 32nd-best among FBS defenses.

Louisiana Tech’s offense threw for 2,130 passing yards in 13 games (just 163.8 YPG) last season — 17th-worst among FBS offenses. Baylor’s defense allowed just 194.9 passing yards per game last season — 5th-best among Big 12 defenses.

Louisiana Tech’s QBs threw for 2,135 passing yards in 13 games (just 164.2 YPG) last season — 19th-worst among FBS teams. Baylor’s defense allowed just 194.9 passing yards per game last season — 5th-best among Big 12 defenses.

Louisiana Tech Offensive Stats & Trends

Louisiana Tech threw 3 TDs on 29 pass attempts (one TD every 9.7 Pass Attempts) in the Red Zone last season– 5th-worst among FBS Offenses; Average: 3.7

Louisiana Tech’s offense threw for 2,130 passing yards in 13 games (just 163.8 YPG) last season — 17th-worst among FBS offenses. Baylor’s defense allowed just 194.9 passing yards per game last season — 32nd-best among FBS defenses.

Louisiana Tech’s offense threw for 2,130 passing yards in 13 games (just 163.8 YPG) last season — 17th-worst among FBS offenses. Baylor’s defense allowed just 194.9 passing yards per game last season — 5th-best among Big 12 defenses.

Louisiana Tech’s QBs threw for 2,135 passing yards in 13 games (just 164.2 YPG) last season — 19th-worst among FBS teams. Baylor’s defense allowed just 194.9 passing yards per game last season — 5th-best among Big 12 defenses.

Louisiana Tech averaged a touchdown every 24.4 receptions (195 Rec/8 TDs) last season– 3rd-worst Receptions Per TD among FBS Offenses; Average: 12.2

Baylor Offensive Stats & Trends

Baylor Skill Players averaged 25.8 receptions per game (309/12) last season– best among Big 12 Teams; Average: 19.2

Baylor WRs averaged just 8.3 yards per reception (166 yards/20 catches) on 3rd and long last season– worst among Big 12 Teams; Average: 15.7

Baylor Skill Players were targeted 123 times in the 4th quarter last season– most among Big 12 Teams

Baylor TEs averaged 17.1 yards per reception (291 yards/17 catches) in the 4th quarter last season– best among Big 12 Teams; Average: 11.2

Baylor’s QBs threw for 3,715 passing yards in 12 games (309.6 YPG) last season — 4th-best among FBS teams. Louisiana Tech’s defense allowed 240.3 passing yards per game last season — 30th-worst among FBS defenses.

Louisiana Tech Defensive Stats & Trends

Louisiana Tech allowed opponents to catch just 22 of 61 passes (36% Reception Pct) in close and late situations last season– 3rd-best in FBS; Average: 61%

Louisiana Tech allowed a Completion Pct of just 35% (22 completions/62 attempts) in close and late situations last season– 3rd-best in FBS; Average: 60%

Louisiana Tech allowed a Completion Pct of just 35% (8 completions/23 attempts) in the Red Zone last season– best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 54%

Louisiana Tech allowed opponents to catch just 22 of 61 passes (36% Reception Pct) in close and late situations last season– 3rd-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 61%

Louisiana Tech had 22 interceptions last season– 2nd-most among Non-Power Conference Teams

Baylor Defensive Stats & Trends

Baylor tackled opponents for a loss on just 62 of 491 rushing attempts (13% TFL%) last season– worst in the Big 12; Average: 15%.

Baylor did not record a sack (36 pass attempts) in the Red Zone in the 2023 season– worst in the Big 12; Average: 14.9

Baylor allowed just 5.3 yards per completion (74 yards/14 completions) last week– best in the Big 12; Average: 10.9

Baylor allowed 8.6 yards from scrimmage per touch (343 yards / 40 touches) on 3rd and short last season– worst in the Big 12; Average: 5.1

Baylor did not record a sack (36 pass attempts) in the Red Zone in the 2023 season– T-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 14.2


Bet now on Baylor Bears vs Louisiana Tech Bulldogs and all games with BetMGM


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