Miami vs. Ole Miss: Odds for CFP Semifinals at the Fiesta Bowl

Mississippi quarterback Trinidad Chambliss (6) dives into the end zone for a eight-yard rushing touchdown against Tulane during the second half in the first round of the NCAA College Football Playoff, Saturday, Dec. 20, 2025, in Oxford, Miss.
(AP Photo/Rogelio V. Solis)
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Very few college football fans expected Miami and Ole Miss to make the tournament and play their way into the semifinals.ย 

Nevertheless, thatโ€™s exactly what fans will see on Thursday night after the upsets of Ohio State and Georgia, respectively.ย 

The Hurricanes and Rebels will now square off in an unlikely Fiesta Bowl showdown in Arizona. The winner will play for a national championship.ย 

Miami vs. Ole Miss Odds

  • Point Spread: Miami -3.5
  • Moneyline: Miami -160ย  |ย  Ole Miss +135
  • Total: 52.5

Miami vs. Ole Miss: Fiesta Bowl Playoff Game

Both teams turned BetMGMโ€™s college football national championship odds market upside down with quarterfinal wins. Ohio State and Georgia were the most popular championship tickets among BetMGM players.

Now, the dynamic Ole Miss offense will try to survive first contact with Miamiโ€™s nasty defensive line.ย 

One key handicapping factor here is how much credit you want to assign to Miami for beating the Buckeyes on New Yearโ€™s Eve. Did Miamiโ€™s defense get off to a fast start against Ohio State because it has the best positional group in the CFP? Or did Ohio Stateโ€™s offense simply fail to launch after playcaller Brian Hartline left Columbus for a new gig at South Florida?

Correctly calibrating that dynamic could be the key to correctly handicapping this Fiesta Bowl.

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About the Author Read More @chaseakiddy

Chase Kiddy is a writer for BetMGM and co-host of The Lion's Edge, an NFL and college football podcast available on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and everywhere else. He has also written for a number of print and online outlets, including the Richmond Times-Dispatch, Washington Post, Daily News-Record, and HERO Sports. His first novel, Cave Paintings, is in development.

Chase Kiddy is a writer for BetMGM and co-host of The Lion's Edge, an NFL and college football podcast available on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and everywhere else. He has also written for a number of print and online outlets, including the Richmond Times-Dispatch, Washington Post, Daily News-Record, and HERO Sports. His first novel, Cave Paintings, is in development.