- The Wisconsin Badgers are a -10 point favorite vs. the Michigan State Spartans
- Michigan State vs. Wisconsin Total (Over/Under): 44.5 points
- TV Channel: BTN
Michigan State (2-2) visit Camp Randall Stadium to take on Wisconsin (3-1) on Oct. 3 in Madison, WI. Kickoff is scheduled for 12:30 pm.
The Wisconsin Badgers are betting favorites in Week 5, with the spread sitting at -10 (-110).
The Michigan State vs. Wisconsin Over/Under is 44.5 total points.
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Michigan State vs. Wisconsin Odds, Spread, Over/Under:
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
| Michigan State | +10 -108 | 44.5 -135 | +320 |
| Wisconsin | -10 -110 | 44.5 +105 | -400 |
Michigan State vs Wisconsin Prediction:
The winning team model predicts Wisconsin will win this game with 70.8% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.
The winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both the Michigan State Spartans and the Wisconsin Badgers, key player performances this season and recent team trends.
Michigan State vs Wisconsin Spread Prediction:
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Wisconsin will cover the spread with 66.0% confidence.
This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.
Bet now on Wisconsin Badgers vs Michigan State Spartans and all games with BetMGM
Michigan State Best Bets Today
- Michigan State have covered the Spread in their last 5 away games (+5.00 Units / 91% ROI)
- Michigan State has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 4 of their last 5 away games (+2.90 Units / 50% ROI)
- Michigan State has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 4 of their last 5 away games (+2.45 Units / 39% ROI)
- Michigan State has hit the Game Total Under in 7 of their last 12 games (+1.50 Units / 11% ROI)
- Michigan State has hit the Team Total Over in 7 of their last 12 games (+1.35 Units / 10% ROI)
Wisconsin Best Bets Today
- Wisconsin has hit the Game Total Under in 9 of their last 12 games (+5.75 Units / 44% ROI)
- Wisconsin has hit the Moneyline in 3 of their last 5 games at home (+5.15 Units / 20% ROI)
- Wisconsin has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 8 of their last 12 games (+3.55 Units / 26% ROI)
- Wisconsin has hit the Team Total Under in 4 of their last 6 games at home (+1.75 Units / 24% ROI)
- Wisconsin has hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 4 of their last 6 games at home (+1.65 Units / 23% ROI)
Michigan State Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Michigan State Spartans is 2-1 against the spread this college football season (+0.9 Units / 20.45% ROI).
- Michigan State is 2-2 when betting on the Moneyline for +0 Units / 0% ROI
- Michigan State is 1-3 when betting the Over for -2.3 Units / -52.27% ROI
- Michigan State is 3-1 when betting the Under for +1.9 Units / 43.18% ROI
Wisconsin Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Wisconsin Badgers is 2-2 against the spread this college football season (-0.2 Units / -4.55% ROI).
- Wisconsin is 2-1 when betting on the Moneyline for +3.15 Units / 13.13% ROI
- Wisconsin is 3-1 when betting the Over for +1.9 Units / 42.7% ROI
- Wisconsin is 1-3 when betting the Under for -2.25 Units / -51.72% ROI
Michigan State: Keys to the Game vs. Wisconsin
Michigan State is winless (0-8) when the opposing team rushes more than 30 times since the 2024 season– T-worst in FBS; Average: .449
Michigan State is winless (0-8) when the opposing team rushes more than 30 times since the 2024 season– worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .504
Michigan State is 2-9 (.182) when allowing 10 or more rushes of four or more yards since the 2024 season– 2nd-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .537
Michigan State is 2-8 (.200) when allowing an average of more than 5 yards on first down plays since the 2024 season– T-5th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .503
Wisconsin: Keys to the Game vs. Michigan State
Wisconsin is winless (0-9) when the opposing team converts 55% or more of its red zone chances into touchdowns since the 2024 season– T-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .459
Wisconsin was winless (0-5) when allowing 200 or more passing yards last season– T-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .498
Wisconsin is winless (0-9) when the opposing team converts 55% or more of its red zone chances into touchdowns since the 2024 season– T-worst in FBS; Average: .409
Wisconsin is winless (0-7) when allowing 5 or more explosive passes since the 2024 season– T-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .507
Matchup Notes for Michigan State vs. Wisconsin
Wisconsin’s QBs threw for 1,613 passing yards in 12 games (just 134.4 YPG) last season — 7th-worst among FBS teams. Michigan State’s defense allowed 231.3 passing yards per game last season — 2nd-worst among Big Ten defenses.
Wisconsin’s TEs gained 561 yards on 48 receptions (11.7 YPR) last season — 5th-best among Big Ten TEs. Michigan State’s defense allowed 11.5 Yards Per Reception last season — 3rd-worst among Big Ten defenses.
Wisconsin’s WRs had 4 receiving touchdowns last season — fewest among Big Ten WRs. Michigan State’s defense allowed 23 receiving touchdowns last season — T-2nd-most among Big Ten defenses.
Michigan State’s RBs has averaged just 6.9 yards after the catch since the 2024 season — T-30th-worst among FBS RBs. Wisconsin’s defense has allowed just 10.7 RAC since the 2024 season — T-18th-best among FBS defenses.
Michigan State’s RBs has 1 rushing touchdowns per game since the 2024 season — T-11th-worst among FBS RBs. Wisconsin’s defense has allowed just 1.2 rushing touchdowns per game since the 2024 season — T-29th-best among FBS defenses.
Michigan State has just 1.2 receiving touchdowns per game since the 2024 season — T-22nd-worst among FBS skill players. Wisconsin’s defense has allowed just 1.2 receiving touchdowns per game since the 2024 season — T-24th-best among FBS defenses.
Michigan State Offensive Stats & Trends
Michigan State Skill Players have averaged a touchdown every 24.0 receptions (72 Rec/3 TDs) this season– worst Receptions Per TD among Big Ten Teams; Average: 9.5
Michigan State TEs have no touchdowns on 20 receptions this season– T-worst Receptions Per TD among Big Ten Teams; Average: 13.8
Michigan State TEs have no touchdowns on 20 receptions this season– T-worst Receptions Per TD among Power Conference Teams; Average: 9.4
Michigan State Skill Players have averaged a touchdown every 24.0 receptions (72 Rec/3 TDs) this season– 2nd-worst Receptions Per TD among Power Conference Teams; Average: 9.7
Michigan State Skill Players had no touchdowns on 19 receptions last week– T-worst Receptions Per TD among Power Conference Teams; Average: 11.2
Wisconsin Offensive Stats & Trends
Wisconsin WRs averaged 24.7 yards per reception (222 yards/9 catches) in short yardage situations last season– best among FBS Teams; Average: 11.4
Wisconsin Skill Players averaged 21.5 yards per reception (86 yards/4 catches) on 3rd and short last season– best among Big Ten Teams; Average: 8.5
Wisconsin WRs caught just 7 of 23 passes(30% Reception Pct) last week– worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 63%
Wisconsin Skill Players have averaged 24.5 yards per reception (147 yards/6 catches) on 3rd and long this season– 2nd-best among FBS Teams; Average: 13.0
Wisconsin TEs have caught 5 touchdown passes in the 4th quarter since the 2024 season– most among Power Conference Teams
Michigan State Defensive Stats & Trends
Michigan State has not recorded a sack (62 pass attempts) in the Red Zone since the 2024 season– T-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 15.5
Michigan State has not recorded a sack (62 pass attempts) in the Red Zone since the 2024 season– T-worst in FBS; Average: 15.7
Michigan State did not record a sack (51 pass attempts) in the Red Zone last season– T-worst in FBS; Average: 16.2
Michigan State has no interceptions (62 pass attempts) in the Red Zone since the 2024 season– T-worst in FBS; Average: 32.9
Michigan State has intercepted one of 98 attempts this season– worst in the Big Ten; Average: 31.9
Wisconsin Defensive Stats & Trends
The Wisconsin defense has allowed scores on 4% of opponent drives (1/27) in close and late situations since the 2024 season– best in FBS; Average: 23%
Wisconsin intercepted 4 of 323 attempts (80.8 pass attempts per int.) last season– 2nd-worst in the Big Ten; Average: 36.1
Wisconsin intercepted 4 of 323 attempts (80.8 pass attempts per int.) last season– 3rd-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 34.9
Wisconsin tackled opponents for a loss on just 44 of 428 rushing attempts (10% TFL%) last season– 2nd-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 16%.
Wisconsin allowed opponents to catch 17 of 22 passes (77% Reception Pct) in close and late situations last season– worst in the Big Ten; Average: 60%
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