- The SMU Mustangs are a -34.5 point favorite vs. the Missouri State Bears
- Missouri State vs. SMU Total (Over/Under): 59.5 points
- TV Channel: ACCN
Missouri State (1-2) visit Gerald J. Ford Stadium to take on SMU (2-1) on Sep. 26 in Dallas, TX. Kickoff is scheduled for 9:00 pm.
The SMU Mustangs are betting favorites in Week 4, with the spread sitting at -34.5 (-108).
The Missouri State vs. SMU Over/Under is 59.5 total points.
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Missouri State vs. SMU Odds, Spread, Over/Under:
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
| Missouri State | +34.5 -110 | 59.5 -110 | +3500 |
| SMU | -34.5 -108 | 59.5 -108 | -12500 |
Missouri State vs SMU Prediction:
The winning team model predicts SMU will win this game with 94.5% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.
The winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both the Missouri State Bears and the SMU Mustangs, key player performances this season and recent team trends.
Missouri State vs SMU Spread Prediction:
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Missouri State will cover the spread with 67.2% confidence.
This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.
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Missouri State Best Bets Today
- Missouri State has hit the Moneyline in 3 of their last 5 away games (+2.40 Units / 41% ROI)
- Missouri State has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 4 of their last 6 away games (+1.95 Units / 28% ROI)
- Missouri State has hit the Game Total Under in 4 of their last 6 away games (+1.80 Units / 27% ROI)
- Missouri State has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 4 of their last 6 away games (+1.75 Units / 26% ROI)
- Missouri State has hit the Team Total Under in 4 of their last 6 away games (+1.75 Units / 26% ROI)
SMU Best Bets Today
- SMU has hit the Moneyline in their last 6 games at home (+7.65 Units / 12% ROI)
- SMU has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 9 of their last 12 games (+5.60 Units / 40% ROI)
- SMU have covered the 1H Spread in 9 of their last 12 games (+5.60 Units / 40% ROI)
- SMU has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 9 of their last 12 games (+5.60 Units / 37% ROI)
- SMU has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 8 of their last 12 games (+4.45 Units / 12% ROI)
Missouri State Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Missouri State Bears is 1-2 against the spread this college football season (-1.2 Units / -36.36% ROI).
- Missouri State is 1-1 when betting on the Moneyline for +0 Units / 0% ROI
- Missouri State is 2-1 when betting the Over for +0.9 Units / 27.27% ROI
- Missouri State is 1-2 when betting the Under for -1.2 Units / -36.36% ROI
SMU Against the Spread (ATS) Record
SMU Mustangs is 1-1 against the spread this college football season (-0.1 Units / -3.08% ROI).
- SMU is 2-1 when betting on the Moneyline for +1 Units / 2.35% ROI
- SMU is 2-1 when betting the Over for +0.9 Units / 27.27% ROI
- SMU is 1-2 when betting the Under for -1.2 Units / -36.36% ROI
Missouri State: Keys to the Game vs. SMU
Missouri State was winless (0-1) when the opposing team converts 55% or more of its red zone chances into touchdowns last season– T-worst in FBS; Average: .418
Missouri State was winless (0-1) when allowing 200 or more passing yards last season– T-worst in FBS; Average: .481
Missouri State was winless (0-1) when the opposing team converts 55% or more of its red zone chances into touchdowns last season– T-worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .385
Missouri State was winless (0-1) when allowing 200 or more passing yards last season– T-worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .462
SMU: Keys to the Game vs. Missouri State
SMU was 4-1 (.800) when sacking the QB less than 3 times last season– T-7th-best in FBS; Average: .429
SMU was 5-1 (.833) when in a one score game last season– T-4th-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .514
SMU was 10-2 (.833) when allowing less than 50% of third down conversion opportunities last season– T-16th-best in FBS; Average: .602
SMU was 6-1 (.857) when having a turnover margin within one of the opposing team last season– T-6th-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .578
Matchup Notes for Missouri State vs. SMU
SMU’s WRs has averaged 13.5 yards after the catch since the 2024 season — T-5th-best among ACC WRs. Missouri State’s defense has allowed just 11.9 RAC to WRs since the 2024 season — T-35th-best among FBS defenses.
SMU’s WRs has gained 3,167 yards on 229 receptions (13.8 YPR) since the 2024 season — 4th-best among ACC WRs. Missouri State’s defense has allowed just 11.9 Yards Per Reception to WRs since the 2024 season — T-27th-best among FBS defenses.
SMU’s RBs had 37.5 receiving yards per game last season — 18th-best among FBS RBs. Missouri State’s defense allowed 32.5 receiving yards per game to RBs last season — 20th-worst among FBS defenses.
Missouri State’s QBs threw for 3,607 passing yards in 13 games (277.5 YPG) last season — 17th-best among FBS teams. SMU’s defense allowed 283.2 passing yards per game last season — 2nd-worst among FBS defenses.
Missouri State’s QBs threw for 3,607 passing yards in 13 games (277.5 YPG) last season — 17th-best among FBS teams. SMU’s defense allowed 283.2 passing yards per game last season — 2nd-worst among ACC defenses.
Missouri State’s offense threw for 3,636 passing yards in 13 games (279.7 YPG) last season — 16th-best among FBS offenses. SMU’s defense allowed 283.2 passing yards per game last season — 2nd-worst among P5 defenses.
Missouri State Offensive Stats & Trends
Missouri State Skill Players averaged just -2.0 yards per reception (-4 yards/2 catches) on 3rd and long last season– worst among FBS Teams; Average: 12.9
Missouri State TEs averaged 27.7 yards per reception (83 yards/3 catches) last season– best among FBS Teams; Average: 11.1
Missouri State RBs averaged -1.0 yards from scrimmage per touch (-3 yards / 3 touches) on 3rd down last season– worst among FBS Teams; Average: 5.6
Missouri State Skill Players were targeted 5 times on 3rd down last season– fewest among FBS Teams
Missouri State WRs were targeted 20 times last season– fewest among FBS Teams
SMU Offensive Stats & Trends
SMU TEs had 6 receptions for 20 or more yards in the 4th quarter last season– T-2nd-most among FBS Teams
SMU RBs have averaged 10.6 yards from scrimmage per touch (306 yards / 29 touches) on 3rd and short this season– best among FBS Teams; Average: 4.5
SMU TEs averaged 22.5 yards per reception (293 yards/13 catches) in the 4th quarter last season– best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 11.3
SMU TEs caught 4 touchdown passes in the 4th quarter last season– T-2nd-most among Power Conference Teams
SMU RBs averaged 10.6 yards from scrimmage per touch (306 yards / 29 touches) on 3rd and short last season– best among FBS Teams; Average: 4.5
Missouri State Defensive Stats & Trends
Missouri State tackled opponents for a loss on 2 of 6 rushing attempts (33% TFL%) in the Red Zone last season– best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 14%.
Missouri State allowed opponents to catch 4 of 4 passes (100% Reception Pct) on 3rd and long last season– worst in FBS; Average: 55%
Missouri State allowed rushes of 10 or more yards on 1 of 2 carries (50%) on 3rd and long last season– worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 19%
Missouri State allowed a Completion Pct of 100% (4 completions/4 attempts) on 3rd and long last season– worst in FBS; Average: 55%
Missouri State tackled opponents for a loss on 2 of 6 rushing attempts (33% TFL%) in the Red Zone last season– best in FBS; Average: 15%.
SMU Defensive Stats & Trends
SMU has allowed 5 rushing TDs on 73 carries (14.6 Carries Per TD) in the Red Zone this season– 2nd-best in FBS; Average: 4.7
SMU has allowed 5 rushing TDs on 456 carries (91.2 Carries Per TD) this season– best in FBS; Average: 24
SMU allowed 5 rushing TDs on 73 carries (14.6 Carries Per TD) in the Red Zone last season– best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 5.1
SMU has allowed 9 TD passes in close and late situations this season– most in FBS
SMU allowed 5 rushing TDs on 73 carries (14.6 Carries Per TD) in the Red Zone last season– 2nd-best in FBS; Average: 4.7
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