- The Western Kentucky Hilltoppers are a -2.5 point favorite vs. the Missouri State Bears
- Missouri State vs. Western Kentucky Total (Over/Under): 55.5 points
- TV Channel: CBSN
Missouri State (1-3) visit Houchens Industries-L.T. Smith Stadium to take on Western Kentucky (1-4) on Oct. 8 in Bowling Green, KY. Kickoff is scheduled for 7:00 pm.
The Western Kentucky Hilltoppers are betting favorites in Week 6, with the spread sitting at -2.5 (-110).
The Missouri State vs. Western Kentucky Over/Under is 55.5 total points.
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Missouri State vs. Western Kentucky Odds, Spread, Over/Under:
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
| Missouri State | +2.5 -108 | 55.5 -105 | +110 |
| Western Kentucky | -2.5 -110 | 55.5 -125 | -130 |
Missouri State vs Western Kentucky Prediction:
The winning team model predicts Western Kentucky will win this game with 53.0% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.
The winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both the Missouri State Bears and the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers, key player performances this season and recent team trends.
Missouri State vs Western Kentucky Spread Prediction:
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Western Kentucky will cover the spread with 52.0% confidence.
This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.
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Missouri State Best Bets Today
- Missouri State has hit the Moneyline in 6 of their last 10 games (+3.00 Units / 15% ROI)
- Missouri State has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 5 of their last 7 away games (+2.95 Units / 34% ROI)
- Missouri State has hit the Game Total Under in 5 of their last 7 away games (+2.80 Units / 36% ROI)
- Missouri State has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 5 of their last 7 away games (+2.75 Units / 35% ROI)
- Missouri State has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 2 of their last 7 away games (+2.60 Units / 34% ROI)
Western Kentucky Best Bets Today
- Western Kentucky has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 8 of their last 12 games (+3.40 Units / 23% ROI)
- Western Kentucky have covered the Spread in 7 of their last 12 games (+1.50 Units / 11% ROI)
- Western Kentucky has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 7 of their last 12 games (+1.15 Units / 8% ROI)
- Western Kentucky have covered the 1H Spread in 7 of their last 12 games (+0.95 Units / 7% ROI)
Missouri State Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Missouri State Bears is 2-2 against the spread this college football season (-0.2 Units / -4.55% ROI).
- Missouri State is 1-1 when betting on the Moneyline for +0 Units / 0% ROI
- Missouri State is 2-2 when betting the Over for -0.2 Units / -4.55% ROI
- Missouri State is 2-2 when betting the Under for -0.2 Units / -4.55% ROI
Western Kentucky Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers is 2-3 against the spread this college football season (-1.3 Units / -23.64% ROI).
- Western Kentucky is 0-2 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.1 Units / -100% ROI
- Western Kentucky is 3-2 when betting the Over for +0.8 Units / 14.55% ROI
- Western Kentucky is 2-3 when betting the Under for -1.3 Units / -23.64% ROI
Missouri State: Keys to the Game vs. Western Kentucky
Missouri State was winless (0-1) when their opponent committed less than 60 yards in penalties last season– T-worst in FBS; Average: .536
Missouri State was winless (0-1) when not forcing and recovering a fumble last season– T-worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .424
Missouri State was winless (0-1) when allowing more than 3 explosive runs last season– T-worst in FBS; Average: .414
Missouri State was winless (0-1) when their opponent rushed more than 30 times last season– T-worst in FBS; Average: .442
Western Kentucky: Keys to the Game vs. Missouri State
Western Kentucky is 6-1 (.857) when allowing less than 5 yards per rush since the 2024 season– T-2nd-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .583
Western Kentucky was undefeated (8-0) when averaging more than 5 yards on first down plays last season– T-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .570
Western Kentucky was 7-3 (.700) when rushing at least 4 yards in a play 10 or more times last season– T-13th-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .526
Western Kentucky was 7-1 (.875) when intercepting at least 1 pass last season– T-18th-best in FBS; Average: .668
Matchup Notes for Missouri State vs. Western Kentucky
Western Kentucky’s RBs averaged just 5.6 yards after the catch last season — T-12th-worst among FBS RBs. Missouri State’s defense allowed 9.0 RAC to RBs last season — T-27th-worst among FBS defenses.
Western Kentucky’s WRs has 513 receptions in 32 games (16.0 per game) since the 2024 season — 14th-best among FBS WRs. Missouri State’s defense has allowed 20.9 receptions per game since the 2024 season — 4th-worst among NonP5 defenses.
Western Kentucky’s WRs has 513 receptions in 32 games (16.0 per game) since the 2024 season — 14th-best among FBS WRs. Missouri State’s defense has allowed 13.6 receptions per game to WRs since the 2024 season — T-16th-worst among FBS defenses.
Missouri State’s offense averaged 2.3 passing TDs per game last season — T-9th-best among FBS offenses. Western Kentucky’s defense allowed just 0.9 passing TDs per game last season — T-3rd-best among NonP5 defenses.
Missouri State had 2.3 receiving touchdowns per game last season — T-9th-best among FBS skill players. Western Kentucky’s defense allowed just 0.9 receiving touchdowns per game last season — T-11th-best among FBS defenses.
Missouri State had 2.3 receiving touchdowns per game last season — T-9th-best among FBS skill players. Western Kentucky’s defense allowed just 0.9 receiving touchdowns per game last season — T-3rd-best among NonP5 defenses.
Missouri State Offensive Stats & Trends
Missouri State TEs averaged 27.7 yards per reception (83 yards/3 catches) last season– best among FBS Teams; Average: 11.1
Missouri State Skill Players averaged just -2.0 yards per reception (-4 yards/2 catches) on 3rd and long last season– worst among FBS Teams; Average: 12.9
Missouri State Skill Players were targeted 31 times last season– fewest among FBS Teams
Missouri State RBs averaged just 1.6 Yards per Carry (8 yards/5 carries) in the 1st half last season– worst among FBS Teams; Average: 5.0
Missouri State WRs had no receptions on 2 targets on 3rd and long last season– worst among FBS Teams; Average: 54%
Western Kentucky Offensive Stats & Trends
Western Kentucky had no touchdowns on 29 receptions last week– T-worst Receptions Per TD among FBS Offenses; Average: 11.8
Western Kentucky WRs have no touchdowns on 30 receptions in close and late situations since the 2024 season– T-worst Receptions Per TD among FBS Teams; Average: 10.4
Western Kentucky Skill Players had no touchdowns on 29 receptions last week– T-worst Receptions Per TD among FBS Teams; Average: 11.6
Western Kentucky Punters have punted 7.2 times per game this season– highest among FBS Teams; Average: 3.8
Western Kentucky threw 0 TDs on 42 pass attempts (one TD every inf Pass Attempts) last week– T-worst among FBS Offenses; Average: 18.9
Missouri State Defensive Stats & Trends
Missouri State tackled opponents for a loss on 2 of 6 rushing attempts (33% TFL%) in the Red Zone last season– best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 14%.
Missouri State allowed a Completion Pct of 100% (4 completions/4 attempts) on 3rd and long last season– worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 55%
Missouri State allowed a Completion Pct of 100% (4 completions/4 attempts) on 3rd and long last season– worst in FBS; Average: 55%
Missouri State allowed rushes of 10 or more yards on 1 of 2 carries (50%) on 3rd and long last season– worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 19%
Missouri State allowed 9.6 yards from scrimmage per touch (48 yards / 5 touches) on 3rd and short last season– worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 5.0
Western Kentucky Defensive Stats & Trends
Western Kentucky has allowed a Completion Pct of just 35% (7 completions/20 attempts) on 3rd and short since the 2024 season– best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 63%
Western Kentucky has allowed opponents to rush for 20+ yards on 13 of their 175 carries (7%) this season– T-2nd-worst in FBS; Average: 3%
Western Kentucky has allowed a Completion Pct of just 20% (1 completions/5 attempts) on third and 10+ yards to go this season– best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 54%
Western Kentucky has allowed a Completion Pct of just 35% (7 completions/20 attempts) on 3rd and short since the 2024 season– T-2nd-best in FBS; Average: 63%
Western Kentucky allowed 3,097 rushing yards last season– 2nd-most in FBS
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