Notre Dame vs Purdue Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets โ€“ NCAAF, Week 4

Purdue fans during an NCAA football game against the Penn State on Thursday, Sept. 1, 2022, in West Lafayette, Ind. (AP Photo/Doug McSchooler)
(AP Photo/Doug McSchooler)
Week 8 Odds Boost
  • The Notre Dame Fighting Irish are a -27.5 point favorite vs. the Purdue Boilermakers
  • Notre Dame vs. Purdue Total (Over/Under): 57.5 points
  • TV Channel: PEAC

Notre Dame (3-0) visit Ross-Ade Stadium to take on Purdue (1-2) on Sep. 26 in West Lafayette, IN. Kickoff is scheduled for 2:00 pm.

The Notre Dame Fighting Irish are betting favorites in Week 4, with the spread sitting at -27.5 (-115).

The Notre Dame vs. Purdue Over/Under is 57.5 total points.

Bet now on Purdue Boilermakers vs Notre Dame Fighting Irish & all NCAAF games with BetMGM

Notre Dame vs. Purdue Odds, Spread, Over/Under:

SpreadTotal (O/U)Moneyline
Notre Dame-27.5 -11557.5 -108-5000
Purdue +27.5 -10557.5 -110+1900

Notre Dame vs Purdue Prediction:

The winning team model predicts Notre Dame will win this game with 89.0% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

The winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both the Notre Dame Fighting Irish and the Purdue Boilermakers, key player performances this season and recent team trends.

Notre Dame vs Purdue Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Notre Dame will cover the spread with 52.6% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.


Bet now on Purdue Boilermakers vs Notre Dame Fighting Irish and all games with BetMGM


  • Notre Dame has hit the 1H Moneyline in their last 11 games (+11.00 Units / 3% ROI)
  • Notre Dame has hit the Moneyline in their last 10 games (+10.00 Units / 4% ROI)
  • Notre Dame has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 10 of their last 12 games (+7.90 Units / 5% ROI)
  • Notre Dame have covered the 1Q Spread in 7 of their last 12 games (+2.80 Units / 21% ROI)
  • Notre Dame has hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 7 of their last 12 games (+1.60 Units / 12% ROI)
  • Purdue has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 9 of their last 11 games (+7.05 Units / 55% ROI)
  • Purdue has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 4 of their last 6 games at home (+6.90 Units / 25% ROI)
  • Purdue have covered the 1Q Spread in 5 of their last 6 games at home (+3.90 Units / 51% ROI)
  • Purdue has hit the Game Total Over in 4 of their last 6 games at home (+1.80 Units / 27% ROI)
  • Purdue has hit the Team Total Under in 6 of their last 11 games (+0.50 Units / 4% ROI)

Notre Dame Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Notre Dame Fighting Irish is 2-1 against the spread this college football season (+0.9 Units / 27.27% ROI).

  • Notre Dame is 2-0 when betting on the Moneyline for +2 Units / 3.77% ROI
  • Notre Dame is 1-2 when betting the Over for -1.2 Units / -36.36% ROI
  • Notre Dame is 2-1 when betting the Under for +0.9 Units / 27.27% ROI

Purdue Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Purdue Boilermakers is 1-2 against the spread this college football season (-1.2 Units / -35.82% ROI).

  • Purdue is 0-2 when betting on the Moneyline for -2 Units / -100% ROI
  • Purdue is 3-0 when betting the Over for +3 Units / 90.91% ROI
  • Purdue is 0-3 when betting the Under for -3.3 Units / -100% ROI

Notre Dame: Keys to the Game vs. Purdue

Notre Dame was undefeated (11-0) when averaging more than 5 yards on first down plays last season– T-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .632

Notre Dame was undefeated (10-0) when making 7 or more explosive plays last season– T-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .659

Notre Dame was undefeated (11-0) when intercepting at least 1 pass last season– T-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .688

Notre Dame was undefeated (11-0) when averaging more than 5 yards on first down plays last season– T-best in FBS; Average: .604

Purdue: Keys to the Game vs. Notre Dame

Purdue was 1-8 (.111) when their opponent committed less than 60 yards in penalties last season– worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .581

Purdue was winless (0-8) when averaging less than 5 yards per rush last season– T-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .462

Purdue was 1-6 (.143) when having a turnover margin within one of the opposing team last season– worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .578

Purdue was winless (0-9) when allowing 200 or more passing yards last season– T-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .498

Matchup Notes for Notre Dame vs. Purdue

Purdue’s RBs has rushed for 1,454 yards on 340 carries (just 4.3 YPC) since the 2024 season — T-11th-worst among FBS RBs. Notre Dame’s defense have allowed just 2.8 YPC since the 2024 season — T-5th-best among FBS defenses.

Purdue’s RBs rushed for 1,088 yards on 251 carries (just 4.3 YPC) last season — T-19th-worst among FBS RBs. Notre Dame’s defense allowed just 3.4 YPC to RBs last season — T-2nd-best among FBS defenses.

Purdue’s RBs has rushed for 1,454 yards on 340 carries (just 4.3 YPC) since the 2024 season — T-11th-worst among FBS RBs. Notre Dame’s defense have allowed just 3.3 YPC to RBs since the 2024 season — 4th-best among FBS defenses.

Notre Dame’s offense threw for 20 or more yards on 15.6% of 321 attempts last season — T-3rd-best among FBS offenses. Purdue’s defense allowed 20+ yards on 14.8% of attempts last season — worst among Big Ten defenses.

Notre Dame gained 2,977 yards on 216 receptions (13.8 YPR) last season — T-3rd-best among Power 5 skill players. Purdue’s defense allowed 14.4 Yards Per Reception last season — 3rd-worst among FBS defenses.

Notre Dame’s TEs gained 546 yards on 40 receptions (13.6 YPR) last season — 5th-best among P5 TEs. Purdue’s defense allowed 14.4 Yards Per Reception last season — worst among P5 defenses.

Notre Dame Offensive Stats & Trends

Notre Dame Skill Players have averaged 17.5 yards per reception (1,502 yards/86 catches) on 1st down this season– best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 12.2

Notre Dame RBs have rushed for 11 TDs in the 1st quarter this season– 2nd-most among FBS Teams

Notre Dame TEs have averaged 19.7 yards per reception (354 yards/18 catches) on 1st down this season– best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 11.6

Notre Dame RBs have averaged 6.6 Yards per Carry (2,360 yards/359 carries) this season– 2nd-best among FBS Teams; Average: 5.1

Notre Dame have averaged 17.5 yards per completion (1,502 yards/86 completions) on 1st down this season– 5th-best among FBS Offenses; Average: 12.2

Purdue Offensive Stats & Trends

Purdue RBs averaged 9.6 yards from scrimmage per touch (318 yards / 33 touches) in close and late situations last season– best among FBS Teams; Average: 5.4

Purdue TEs have no touchdowns on 24 receptions this season– T-worst Receptions Per TD among Big Ten Teams; Average: 11.9

Purdue RBs averaged 10.0 Yards per Carry (269 yards/27 carries) in close and late situations last season– best among FBS Teams; Average: 5.2

Purdue RBs averaged 7.3 Yards per Carry (422 yards/58 carries) in the 4th quarter last season– T-3rd-best among FBS Teams; Average: 5.2

Purdue TEs have no touchdowns on 24 receptions this season– T-worst Receptions Per TD among Power Conference Teams; Average: 10.4

Notre Dame Defensive Stats & Trends

Notre Dame has 21 interceptions this season– 4th-most in FBS

Notre Dame has allowed 8 rushing TDs on 402 carries (50.2 Carries Per TD) this season– 7th-best in FBS; Average: 24

Notre Dame allowed a Completion Pct of just 33% (11 completions/33 attempts) in the Red Zone last season– best in FBS; Average: 54%

Notre Dame allowed a Completion Pct of just 53% (235 completions/447 attempts) last season– 3rd-best in FBS; Average: 61%

Notre Dame has averaged 1.75 interceptions per game (21/12) this season– 4th-best in FBS; Average: 0.80

Purdue Defensive Stats & Trends

Purdue allowed 6.8 touchdowns per interception (27 TDs allowed, and 4 INT) last season– worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 1.6

Purdue has allowed 14.4 yards per completion (2,900 yards/202 completions) this season– worst in the Big Ten; Average: 10.9

Purdue has allowed passes of 40+ yards on 16 of 311 attempts (5%) this season– worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 2%

Purdue has allowed passes of 40+ yards on 16 of 311 attempts (5%) this season– worst in the Big Ten; Average: 2%

Purdue allowed 14.4 yards per completion (2,900 yards/202 completions) last season– worst in the Big Ten; Average: 10.9


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