Notre Dame vs Purdue Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NCAAF, Week 4

• The Notre Dame Fighting Irish are a -27.5 point favorite vs. the Purdue Boilermakers
• Notre Dame vs. Purdue Total (Over/Under): 57.5 points
• TV Channel: PEAC

Notre Dame (3-0) visit Ross-Ade Stadium to take on Purdue (1-2) on Sep. 26 in West Lafayette, IN. Kickoff is scheduled for 2:00 pm.

The Notre Dame Fighting Irish are betting favorites in Week 4, with the spread sitting at -27.5 (-115).

The Notre Dame vs. Purdue Over/Under is 57.5 total points.

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Notre Dame vs. Purdue Odds, Spread, Over/Under:

Notre Dame vs Purdue Prediction:

The winning team model predicts Notre Dame will win this game with 89.0% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

The winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both the Notre Dame Fighting Irish and the Purdue Boilermakers, key player performances this season and recent team trends.

Notre Dame vs Purdue Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Notre Dame will cover the spread with 52.6% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

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Notre Dame Best Bets Today

• Notre Dame has hit the 1H Moneyline in their last 11 games (+11.00 Units / 3% ROI)
• Notre Dame has hit the Moneyline in their last 10 games (+10.00 Units / 4% ROI)
• Notre Dame has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 10 of their last 12 games (+7.90 Units / 5% ROI)
• Notre Dame have covered the 1Q Spread in 7 of their last 12 games (+2.80 Units / 21% ROI)
• Notre Dame has hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 7 of their last 12 games (+1.60 Units / 12% ROI)

Purdue Best Bets Today

• Purdue has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 9 of their last 11 games (+7.05 Units / 55% ROI)
• Purdue has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 4 of their last 6 games at home (+6.90 Units / 25% ROI)
• Purdue have covered the 1Q Spread in 5 of their last 6 games at home (+3.90 Units / 51% ROI)
• Purdue has hit the Game Total Over in 4 of their last 6 games at home (+1.80 Units / 27% ROI)
• Purdue has hit the Team Total Under in 6 of their last 11 games (+0.50 Units / 4% ROI)

Notre Dame Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Notre Dame Fighting Irish is 2-1 against the spread this college football season (+0.9 Units / 27.27% ROI).

• Notre Dame is 2-0 when betting on the Moneyline for +2 Units / 3.77% ROI
• Notre Dame is 1-2 when betting the Over for -1.2 Units / -36.36% ROI
• Notre Dame is 2-1 when betting the Under for +0.9 Units / 27.27% ROI

Purdue Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Purdue Boilermakers is 1-2 against the spread this college football season (-1.2 Units / -35.82% ROI).

• Purdue is 0-2 when betting on the Moneyline for -2 Units / -100% ROI
• Purdue is 3-0 when betting the Over for +3 Units / 90.91% ROI
• Purdue is 0-3 when betting the Under for -3.3 Units / -100% ROI

Notre Dame: Keys to the Game vs. Purdue

Notre Dame was undefeated (11-0) when averaging more than 5 yards on first down plays last season– T-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .632

Notre Dame was undefeated (10-0) when making 7 or more explosive plays last season– T-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .659

Notre Dame was undefeated (11-0) when intercepting at least 1 pass last season– T-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .688

Notre Dame was undefeated (11-0) when averaging more than 5 yards on first down plays last season– T-best in FBS; Average: .604

Purdue: Keys to the Game vs. Notre Dame

Purdue was 1-8 (.111) when their opponent committed less than 60 yards in penalties last season– worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .581

Purdue was winless (0-8) when averaging less than 5 yards per rush last season– T-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .462

Purdue was 1-6 (.143) when having a turnover margin within one of the opposing team last season– worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .578

Purdue was winless (0-9) when allowing 200 or more passing yards last season– T-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .498

Matchup Notes for Notre Dame vs. Purdue

Purdue’s RBs has rushed for 1,454 yards on 340 carries (just 4.3 YPC) since the 2024 season — T-11th-worst among FBS RBs. Notre Dame’s defense have allowed just 2.8 YPC since the 2024 season — T-5th-best among FBS defenses.

Purdue’s RBs rushed for 1,088 yards on 251 carries (just 4.3 YPC) last season — T-19th-worst among FBS RBs. Notre Dame’s defense allowed just 3.4 YPC to RBs last season — T-2nd-best among FBS defenses.

Purdue’s RBs has rushed for 1,454 yards on 340 carries (just 4.3 YPC) since the 2024 season — T-11th-worst among FBS RBs. Notre Dame’s defense have allowed just 3.3 YPC to RBs since the 2024 season — 4th-best among FBS defenses.

Notre Dame’s offense threw for 20 or more yards on 15.6% of 321 attempts last season — T-3rd-best among FBS offenses. Purdue’s defense allowed 20+ yards on 14.8% of attempts last season — worst among Big Ten defenses.

Notre Dame gained 2,977 yards on 216 receptions (13.8 YPR) last season — T-3rd-best among Power 5 skill players. Purdue’s defense allowed 14.4 Yards Per Reception last season — 3rd-worst among FBS defenses.

Notre Dame’s TEs gained 546 yards on 40 receptions (13.6 YPR) last season — 5th-best among P5 TEs. Purdue’s defense allowed 14.4 Yards Per Reception last season — worst among P5 defenses.

Notre Dame Offensive Stats & Trends

Notre Dame Skill Players have averaged 17.5 yards per reception (1,502 yards/86 catches) on 1st down this season– best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 12.2

Notre Dame RBs have rushed for 11 TDs in the 1st quarter this season– 2nd-most among FBS Teams

Notre Dame TEs have averaged 19.7 yards per reception (354 yards/18 catches) on 1st down this season– best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 11.6

Notre Dame RBs have averaged 6.6 Yards per Carry (2,360 yards/359 carries) this season– 2nd-best among FBS Teams; Average: 5.1

Notre Dame have averaged 17.5 yards per completion (1,502 yards/86 completions) on 1st down this season– 5th-best among FBS Offenses; Average: 12.2

Purdue Offensive Stats & Trends

Purdue RBs averaged 9.6 yards from scrimmage per touch (318 yards / 33 touches) in close and late situations last season– best among FBS Teams; Average: 5.4

Purdue TEs have no touchdowns on 24 receptions this season– T-worst Receptions Per TD among Big Ten Teams; Average: 11.9

Purdue RBs averaged 10.0 Yards per Carry (269 yards/27 carries) in close and late situations last season– best among FBS Teams; Average: 5.2

Purdue RBs averaged 7.3 Yards per Carry (422 yards/58 carries) in the 4th quarter last season– T-3rd-best among FBS Teams; Average: 5.2

Purdue TEs have no touchdowns on 24 receptions this season– T-worst Receptions Per TD among Power Conference Teams; Average: 10.4

Notre Dame Defensive Stats & Trends

Notre Dame has 21 interceptions this season– 4th-most in FBS

Notre Dame has allowed 8 rushing TDs on 402 carries (50.2 Carries Per TD) this season– 7th-best in FBS; Average: 24

Notre Dame allowed a Completion Pct of just 33% (11 completions/33 attempts) in the Red Zone last season– best in FBS; Average: 54%

Notre Dame allowed a Completion Pct of just 53% (235 completions/447 attempts) last season– 3rd-best in FBS; Average: 61%

Notre Dame has averaged 1.75 interceptions per game (21/12) this season– 4th-best in FBS; Average: 0.80

Purdue Defensive Stats & Trends

Purdue allowed 6.8 touchdowns per interception (27 TDs allowed, and 4 INT) last season– worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 1.6

Purdue has allowed 14.4 yards per completion (2,900 yards/202 completions) this season– worst in the Big Ten; Average: 10.9

Purdue has allowed passes of 40+ yards on 16 of 311 attempts (5%) this season– worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 2%

Purdue has allowed passes of 40+ yards on 16 of 311 attempts (5%) this season– worst in the Big Ten; Average: 2%

Purdue allowed 14.4 yards per completion (2,900 yards/202 completions) last season– worst in the Big Ten; Average: 10.9

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