Oregon vs USC Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NCAAF, Week 4

• The USC Trojans are a -1.5 point favorite vs. the Oregon Ducks
• Oregon vs. USC Total (Over/Under): 63.5 points
• TV Channel: NBC | PEAC

Oregon (2-1) visit Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum to take on USC (4-0) on Sep. 26 in Los Angeles, CA. Kickoff is scheduled for 7:30 pm.

The USC Trojans are betting favorites in Week 4, with the spread sitting at -1.5 (+145).

The Oregon vs. USC Over/Under is 63.5 total points.

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Oregon vs. USC Odds, Spread, Over/Under:

Oregon vs USC Prediction:

The winning team model predicts Oregon will win this game with 53.6% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

The winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both the Oregon Ducks and the USC Trojans, key player performances this season and recent team trends.

Oregon vs USC Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Oregon will cover the spread with 52.6% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

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Oregon Best Bets Today

• Oregon has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 5 of their last 7 away games (+4.00 Units / 28% ROI)
• Oregon has hit the Game Total Over in 9 of their last 14 games (+3.50 Units / 23% ROI)
• Oregon have covered the 1H Spread in 9 of their last 14 games (+3.35 Units / 21% ROI)
• Oregon has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 5 of their last 7 away games (+2.95 Units / 36% ROI)
• Oregon has hit the Team Total Under in 5 of their last 7 away games (+2.65 Units / 33% ROI)

USC Best Bets Today

• USC has hit the Moneyline in their last 6 games at home (+6.00 Units / 6% ROI)
• USC has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 6 of their last 7 games at home (+5.05 Units / 66% ROI)
• USC has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 8 of their last 13 games (+4.00 Units / 6% ROI)
• USC has hit the Game Total Under in 4 of their last 7 games at home (+0.70 Units / 9% ROI)
• USC has hit the Team Total Over in 4 of their last 7 games at home (+0.45 Units / 6% ROI)

Oregon Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Oregon Ducks is 1-2 against the spread this college football season (-1.22 Units / -36.75% ROI).

• Oregon is 1-1 when betting on the Moneyline for -22 Units / -43.14% ROI
• Oregon is 3-0 when betting the Over for +3 Units / 91.46% ROI
• Oregon is 0-3 when betting the Under for -3.32 Units / -100% ROI

USC Against the Spread (ATS) Record

USC Trojans is 1-3 against the spread this college football season (-2.3 Units / -52.27% ROI).

• USC is 3-0 when betting on the Moneyline for +3 Units / 3.26% ROI
• USC is 3-1 when betting the Over for +1.9 Units / 43.18% ROI
• USC is 1-3 when betting the Under for -2.3 Units / -52.27% ROI

Oregon: Keys to the Game vs. USC

Oregon was undefeated (5-0) when in a one score game last season– T-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .514

Oregon was 7-1 (.875) when sacking the QB less than 3 times last season– T-2nd-best in FBS; Average: .429

Oregon was 10-1 (.909) when their opponent rushed more than 30 times last season– best in FBS; Average: .442

Oregon was 10-1 (.909) when their opponent rushed more than 30 times last season– best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .481

USC: Keys to the Game vs. Oregon

USC is 9-2 (.818) when averaging more than 5 yards on first down plays this season– T-11th-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .651

USC is 5-2 (.714) when not losing a fumble this season– T-31st-best in FBS; Average: .580

USC is 9-2 (.818) when rushing for more than 100 yards this season– T-29th-best in FBS; Average: .636

USC is 8-3 (.727) when rushing at least 4 yards in a play 10 or more times this season– T-33rd-best in FBS; Average: .585

Matchup Notes for Oregon vs. USC

USC’s WRs gained 2,759 yards on 185 receptions (14.9 YPR) last season — 2nd-best among Big Ten WRs. Oregon’s defense allowed just 10.5 Yards Per Reception last season — T-22nd-best among FBS defenses.

USC’s WRs gained 2,759 yards on 185 receptions (14.9 YPR) last season — T-16th-best among FBS WRs. Oregon’s defense allowed just 10.5 Yards Per Reception last season — T-22nd-best among FBS defenses.

USC’s QBs threw for 3,824 passing yards in 13 games (294.2 YPG) last season — 5th-best among FBS teams. Oregon’s defense allowed just 157.9 passing yards per game last season — 3rd-best among P5 defenses.

Oregon’s offense threw for 20 or more yards on 15.6% of 435 attempts last season — T-3rd-best among FBS offenses. USC’s defense allowed 20+ yards on just 8.1% of attempts last season — 5th-best among Big Ten defenses.

Oregon’s TEs gained 1,096 yards on 86 receptions (12.7 YPR) last season — 2nd-best among Big Ten TEs. USC’s defense allowed just 10.4 Yards Per Reception last season — T-16th-best among FBS defenses.

Oregon’s offense threw for 20 or more yards on 15.6% of 435 attempts last season — T-3rd-best among FBS offenses. USC’s defense allowed 20+ yards on just 8.1% of attempts last season — T-29th-best among FBS defenses.

Oregon Offensive Stats & Trends

Oregon TEs have 23 receptions for 20 or more yards this season– most among Big Ten Teams

Oregon QBs have 22 completions for 20 or more yards on 3rd down this season– 2nd-most among FBS Teams

Oregon TEs have 401 receiving yards on 3rd down this season– most among FBS Teams

Oregon Skill Players have averaged 17.4 yards per reception (279 yards/16 catches) on 3rd and short this season– best among Big Ten Teams; Average: 9.2

Oregon TEs have 401 receiving yards on 3rd down this season– most among Big Ten Teams

USC Offensive Stats & Trends

USC TEs gained no yards on 1 catches (0.0 YPR) on 3rd and long last season– worst among Big Ten Teams; Average: 11.0

USC TEs had no touchdowns on 5 receptions in the Red Zone last season– T-worst Receptions Per TD among Power Conference Teams; Average: 2.0

USC TEs have averaged 17.4 yards per reception (365 yards/21 catches) on 1st down this season– best among Big Ten Teams; Average: 11.0

USC TEs had no touchdowns on 5 receptions in the Red Zone last season– T-worst Receptions Per TD among Big Ten Teams; Average: 2.3

USC’s WRs gained 2,759 yards on 185 receptions (14.9 YPR) last season — 2nd-best among Big Ten WRs. Oregon’s defense allowed just 10.5 Yards Per Reception last season — T-22nd-best among FBS defenses.

Oregon Defensive Stats & Trends

Oregon has allowed a Completion Pct of just 53% (226 completions/423 attempts) this season– best in the Big Ten; Average: 63%

Oregon has not recorded a sack (48 pass attempts) in the Red Zone this season– T-worst in FBS; Average: 16.2

Oregon has allowed a Completion Pct of just 41% (31 completions/76 attempts) on 3rd and long this season– best in the Big Ten; Average: 57%

Oregon has allowed opponents to catch just 226 of 417 passes (54% Reception Pct) this season– best in the Big Ten; Average: 64%

Oregon allowed a Completion Pct of just 53% (226 completions/423 attempts) last season– best in the Big Ten; Average: 63%

USC Defensive Stats & Trends

USC tackled opponents for a loss on just 1 of 33 rushing attempts (3% TFL%) on 3rd and short last season– 5th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 10%.

USC has tackled opponents for a loss on just 4 of 68 rushing attempts (6% TFL%) in the Red Zone this season– 3rd-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 15%.

USC has tackled opponents for a loss on just 4 of 68 rushing attempts (6% TFL%) in the Red Zone this season– worst in the Big Ten; Average: 15%.

USC tackled opponents for a loss on just 1 of 33 rushing attempts (3% TFL%) on 3rd and short last season– 11th-worst in FBS; Average: 10%.

USC has at least one sack in each of their last 13 games — this is the longest active Big Ten streak.

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