- The Utah State Aggies are a -3 point favorite vs. the Troy Trojans
- Troy vs. Utah State Total (Over/Under): 48.5 points
- TV Channel: CBSN
Troy (2-1) visit Merlin Olsen Field at Maverik Stadium to take on Utah State (0-3) on Sep. 26 in Logan, UT. Kickoff is scheduled for 7:30 pm.
The Utah State Aggies are betting favorites in Week 4, with the spread sitting at -3 (-112).
The Troy vs. Utah State Over/Under is 48.5 total points.
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Troy vs. Utah State Odds, Spread, Over/Under:
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
| Troy | +3 -105 | 48.5 -112 | +130 |
| Utah State | -3 -112 | 48.5 -105 | -160 |
Troy vs Utah State Prediction:
The winning team model predicts Utah State will win this game with 53.2% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.
The winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both the Troy Trojans and the Utah State Aggies, key player performances this season and recent team trends.
Troy vs Utah State Spread Prediction:
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Utah State will cover the spread with 52.2% confidence.
This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.
Bet now on Utah State Aggies vs Troy Trojans and all games with BetMGM
Troy Best Bets Today
- Troy has hit the Game Total Under in 9 of their last 13 games (+4.60 Units / 32% ROI)
- Troy has hit the Moneyline in 8 of their last 13 games (+3.45 Units / 8% ROI)
- Troy have covered the 1Q Spread in 5 of their last 7 away games (+3.00 Units / 38% ROI)
- Troy has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 2 of their last 7 away games (+2.90 Units / 38% ROI)
- Troy have covered the Spread in 5 of their last 7 away games (+2.80 Units / 36% ROI)
Utah State Best Bets Today
- Utah State has hit the Game Total Under in 8 of their last 12 games (+3.60 Units / 27% ROI)
- Utah State has hit the Team Total Under in 8 of their last 12 games (+3.45 Units / 25% ROI)
- Utah State has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 4 of their last 5 games at home (+2.75 Units / 28% ROI)
- Utah State have covered the 1Q Spread in 7 of their last 12 games (+1.65 Units / 12% ROI)
- Utah State have covered the Spread in 7 of their last 12 games (+1.50 Units / 11% ROI)
Troy Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Troy Trojans is 1-2 against the spread this college football season (-1.2 Units / -36.36% ROI).
- Troy is 2-1 when betting on the Moneyline for +1 Units / 3.64% ROI
- Troy is 0-3 when betting the Over for -3.3 Units / -100% ROI
- Troy is 3-0 when betting the Under for +3 Units / 90.91% ROI
Utah State Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Utah State Aggies is 1-2 against the spread this college football season (-1.2 Units / -36.36% ROI).
- Utah State is 0-3 when betting on the Moneyline for -8.2 Units / -100% ROI
- Utah State is 0-3 when betting the Over for -3.3 Units / -100% ROI
- Utah State is 3-0 when betting the Under for +3 Units / 90.91% ROI
Troy: Keys to the Game vs. Utah State
Troy was winless (0-6) when allowing 120 or more rushing yards last season– T-worst in FBS; Average: .379
Troy was winless (0-4) when throwing at least 1 interception last season– T-worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .314
Troy is undefeated (5-0) when rushing for more than 100 yards this season– T-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .592
Troy is undefeated (5-0) when rushing for 120 or more yards this season– T-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .634
Utah State: Keys to the Game vs. Troy
Utah State was winless (0-6) when their opponent committed less than 60 yards in penalties last season– T-worst in FBS; Average: .536
Utah State was winless (0-6) when their opponent committed less than 60 yards in penalties last season– T-worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .477
Utah State is 3-6 (.333) when converting less than 50% of third down conversion opportunities this season– T-37th-worst in FBS; Average: .455
Utah State was 3-6 (.333) when not forcing and recovering a fumble last season– T-37th-worst in FBS; Average: .460
Matchup Notes for Troy vs. Utah State
Utah State’s offense threw for 20 or more yards on 11.7% of 403 attempts last season — T-29th-best among FBS offenses. Troy’s defense allowed 20+ yards on 11.3% of attempts last season — T-27th-worst among FBS defenses.
Utah State has averaged 12.6 yards after the catch since the 2024 season — best among Pac-12 skill players. Troy’s defense has allowed just 10.7 RAC since the 2024 season — T-35th-best among FBS defenses.
Utah State’s WRs has 151 receptions in 16 games (just 9.4 per game) since the 2024 season — 22nd-worst among FBS WRs. Troy’s defense has allowed just 16.9 receptions per game since the 2024 season — T-25th-best among FBS defenses.
Troy’s RBs has rushed for 1,594 yards on 373 carries (just 4.3 YPC) since the 2024 season — T-11th-worst among FBS RBs. Utah State’s defense have allowed 4.7 YPC since the 2024 season — T-24th-worst among FBS defenses.
Troy’s RBs had just 0.0 receiving touchdowns per game last season — T-worst among FBS RBs. Utah State’s defense allowed 2.0 receiving touchdowns per game last season — T-12th-worst among FBS defenses.
Troy’s RBs rushed for 1,131 yards on 277 carries (just 4.1 YPC) last season — T-13th-worst among FBS RBs. Utah State’s defense allowed 5.5 YPC to RBs last season — T-21st-worst among FBS defenses.
Troy Offensive Stats & Trends
Troy have been sacked 59 times this season– most among FBS Offenses
Troy RBs averaged 18.8 yards per target (94 yards/5 targets) on 3rd down last season– best among FBS Teams; Average: 6.0
Troy WRs have caught 6 touchdown passes in close and late situations this season– 2nd-most among FBS Teams
Troy RBs have averaged 80.8 rushing yards per game (1,131/14) this season– 12th-worst among FBS Teams; Average: 123.3
Troy were sacked 59 times last season– most among FBS Offenses
Utah State Offensive Stats & Trends
Utah State TEs were targeted 11.9 times per game (143/12) last season– 2nd-highest among FBS Teams; Average: 5.1
Utah State have thrown 5.2 Passing TDs per Interception (26 passing TDs/5 interceptions) this season– 8th-best among FBS Offenses; Average: 2.0
Utah State TEs were targeted 47 times in the 1st quarter last season– T-most among FBS Teams
Utah State TEs caught 14 touchdown passes last season– most among FBS Teams
Utah State have 5 interceptions on 403 attempts (1 INT per 80.6 attempts) this season– 7th-best among FBS Offenses; Average: 40.1
Troy Defensive Stats & Trends
Troy sacked opponents 7 times in the Red Zone in the 2023 season– T-2nd-most among Non-Power Conference Teams
Troy allowed first downs on 7% of rush attempts in the Red Zone last season– T-best in FBS; Average: 17%
Troy allowed first downs on 7% of rush attempts in the Red Zone last season– best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 18%
Troy allowed 2.2 yards from scrimmage per touch (197 yards / 88 touches) in the Red Zone last season– best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 3.8
Troy has allowed less than 300 passing yards in each of their last 10 games — the South Carolina Gamecocks have the longest active streak at 28.
Utah State Defensive Stats & Trends
Utah State allowed 20 first down receptions in the Red Zone last season– most in FBS
Utah State allowed 19 TD passes in the Red Zone last season– most among Non-Power Conference Teams
Utah State had no interceptions (0 pass attempts) in the Red Zone last season– T-worst in FBS; Average: 36.5
Utah State allowed 20 first down receptions in the Red Zone last season– most among Non-Power Conference Teams
Utah State had no interceptions and 19 TD passes allowed in the Red Zone last season– T-worst in FBS; Average: 9.4
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