- The Virginia Cavaliers are a -2.5 point favorite vs. the Florida State Seminoles
- Virginia vs. Florida State Total (Over/Under): 51.5 points
- TV Channel: ESPN2
Virginia (3-1) visit Bobby Bowden Field at Doak Campbell Stadium to take on Florida State (2-2) on Oct. 3 in Tallahassee, FL. Kickoff is scheduled for 3:30 pm.
The Virginia Cavaliers are betting favorites in Week 5, with the spread sitting at -2.5 (-112).
The Virginia vs. Florida State Over/Under is 51.5 total points.
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Virginia vs. Florida State Odds, Spread, Over/Under:
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
| Virginia | -2.5 -112 | 51.5 -112 | -140 |
| Florida State | +2.5 -105 | 51.5 -105 | +115 |
Virginia vs Florida State Prediction:
The winning team model predicts Virginia will win this game with 54.5% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.
The winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both the Virginia Cavaliers and the Florida State Seminoles, key player performances this season and recent team trends.
Virginia vs Florida State Spread Prediction:
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Virginia will cover the spread with 53.3% confidence.
This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.
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Virginia Best Bets Today
- Virginia has hit the Game Total Under in 11 of their last 13 games (+8.80 Units / 62% ROI)
- Virginia has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 11 of their last 13 games (+8.80 Units / 58% ROI)
- Virginia has hit the Moneyline in their last 5 away games (+7.20 Units / 76% ROI)
- Virginia has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 9 of their last 13 games (+6.80 Units / 1% ROI)
- Virginia have covered the 1Q Spread in 10 of their last 13 games (+6.50 Units / 43% ROI)
Florida State Best Bets Today
- Florida State has hit the Team Total Under in 10 of their last 12 games (+7.65 Units / 56% ROI)
- Florida State has hit the Game Total Under in 9 of their last 12 games (+5.70 Units / 43% ROI)
- Florida State has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 9 of their last 12 games (+5.60 Units / 41% ROI)
- Florida State has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 9 of their last 12 games (+5.45 Units / 39% ROI)
- Florida State has hit the 1H Moneyline in 4 of their last 6 games at home (+2.00 Units / 2% ROI)
Virginia Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Virginia Cavaliers is 3-1 against the spread this college football season (+1.9 Units / 42.7% ROI).
- Virginia is 2-1 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.1 Units / -10.29% ROI
- Virginia is 2-2 when betting the Over for -0.22 Units / -4.98% ROI
- Virginia is 2-2 when betting the Under for -0.2 Units / -4.57% ROI
Florida State Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Florida State Seminoles is 1-2 against the spread this college football season (-1.13 Units / -25.8% ROI).
- Florida State is 1-2 when betting on the Moneyline for -1 Units / -2.13% ROI
- Florida State is 1-3 when betting the Over for -2.38 Units / -53.13% ROI
- Florida State is 3-1 when betting the Under for +1.9 Units / 43.98% ROI
Virginia: Keys to the Game vs. Florida State
Virginia is 9-4 (.692) when the opposing team rushes more than 30 times since the 2024 season– 14th-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .504
Virginia is 13-5 (.722) when rushing at least 4 yards in a play 10 or more times since the 2024 season– 35th-best in FBS; Average: .602
Virginia was 1-4 (.200) when allowing more than 3 explosive runs last season– T-23rd-worst in FBS; Average: .414
Virginia was 1-5 (.167) when not forcing and recovering a fumble last season– T-6th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .492
Florida State: Keys to the Game vs. Virginia
Florida State was winless (0-8) when the opposing team converts 55% or more of its red zone chances into touchdowns last season– T-worst in FBS; Average: .418
Florida State was winless (0-4) when in a one score game last season– T-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .514
Florida State was 1-10 (.091) when averaging less than 5 yards per rush last season– 4th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .462
Florida State was 1-10 (.091) when their opponent rushed more than 30 times last season– 3rd-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .481
Matchup Notes for Virginia vs. Florida State
Florida State’s TEs had 32 receptions in 12 games (just 2.7 per game) last season — 4th-worst among ACC TEs. Virginia’s defense allowed just 17.5 receptions per game last season — 2nd-best among ACC defenses.
Florida State has 439 receptions in 28 games (just 15.7 per game) since the 2024 season — worst among ACC skill players. Virginia’s defense has allowed just 17.9 receptions per game since the 2024 season — 3rd-best among ACC defenses.
Florida State’s WRs has 275 receptions in 28 games (just 9.8 per game) since the 2024 season — T-19th-worst among FBS WRs. Virginia’s defense has allowed just 17.9 receptions per game since the 2024 season — 3rd-best among ACC defenses.
Virginia’s WRs has averaged just 11.9 yards after the catch since the 2024 season — 2nd-worst among ACC WRs. Florida State’s defense has allowed 11.8 RAC since the 2024 season — T-3rd-worst among ACC defenses.
Virginia’s WRs was targeted 328 times last season — 3rd-most among ACC WRs. Florida State’s defense allowed 2,289 receiving yards last season — fewest among ACC defenses.
Virginia has averaged just 11.0 yards after the catch since the 2024 season — T-2nd-worst among ACC skill players. Florida State’s defense has allowed 11.8 RAC since the 2024 season — T-3rd-worst among ACC defenses.
Virginia Offensive Stats & Trends
Virginia Skill Players averaged a touchdown every 5.4 receptions (27 Rec/5 TDs) in the Red Zone last season– worst Receptions Per TD among Power Conference Teams; Average: 2.1
Virginia WRs averaged a touchdown every 7.5 receptions (15 Rec/2 TDs) in the Red Zone last season– worst Receptions Per TD among Power Conference Teams; Average: 2.0
Virginia Skill Players averaged a touchdown every 5.4 receptions (27 Rec/5 TDs) in the Red Zone last season– worst Receptions Per TD among FBS Teams; Average: 2.1
Virginia RBs have carried the ball 103 times on 3rd down since the 2024 season– most among FBS Teams
Virginia threw for 5 TDs last week– T-4th-most among FBS Offenses
Florida State Offensive Stats & Trends
Florida State WRs have averaged 17.8 yards per reception (2,967 yards/167 catches) since the 2024 season– best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 13.4
Florida State have averaged 16.5 yards per completion (1,119 yards/68 completions) on 3rd down since the 2024 season– best among FBS Offenses; Average: 11.9
Florida State have averaged 18.3 yards per completion (1,009 yards/55 completions) in the 1st quarter since the 2024 season– best among FBS Offenses; Average: 11.7
Florida State Skill Players have averaged 18.3 yards per reception (678 yards/37 catches) with 4-6 yards to go since the 2024 season– best among FBS Teams; Average: 11.0
Florida State RBs have averaged 11.8 yards from scrimmage per touch (165 yards / 14 touches) on 3rd down this season– 3rd-best among FBS Teams; Average: 5.3
Virginia Defensive Stats & Trends
Virginia allowed a Completion Pct of just 26% (7 completions/27 attempts) last week– best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 61%
Virginia allowed a Completion Pct of just 26% (7 completions/27 attempts) last week– best in FBS; Average: 62%
Virginia allowed opponents to catch just 7 of 25 passes (28% Reception Pct) last week– best in FBS; Average: 63%
Virginia allowed a Completion Pct of just 15% (2 completions/13 attempts) on 3rd and short last season– 3rd-best in FBS; Average: 63%
Virginia has allowed a Completion Pct of just 48% (50 completions/105 attempts) this season– 3rd-best in FBS; Average: 61%
Florida State Defensive Stats & Trends
Florida State forced 4 fumbles on 477 carries (119.2 Carries Per Fumble) last season– T-6th-worst in FBS; Average: 43.4
Florida State intercepted 4 of 324 attempts (81.0 pass attempts per int.) last season– 2nd-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 34.9
Florida State allowed opponents to catch just 201 of 414 passes (49% Reception Pct) in the 2023 season– best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 61%
Florida State allowed a Completion Pct of just 48% (201 completions/415 attempts) in the 2023 season– best in FBS; Average: 61%
Florida State allowed opponents to catch just 201 of 414 passes (49% Reception Pct) in the 2023 season– best in FBS; Average: 61%
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