• The Braves are -140 favorites vs the Marlins
• Braves vs Marlins Over / Under today: 7.5 Runs
• Braves / Marlins TV Channel: BRVN | MATV

The Atlanta Braves (-140) visit loanDepot park to take on the Miami Marlins (+115) on May 21, 2026. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40 pm in Miami, FL.

This season, the Braves are 34-16 against the spread (ATS), while the Marlins are 21-29 ATS.

Braves vs Marlins Starting Pitchers Today:

• Braves starting pitcher: Spencer Strider 1-0, 2.46 ERA
• Marlins starting pitcher: Sandy Alcantara 3-2, 3.59 ERA

Braves vs. Marlins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

Braves vs Marlins Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Braves will win Thursday‘s MLB game with 60.9% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.

Bet now on Braves vs Marlins and all games with BetMGM

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Braves players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Braves Player Prop Bets Today:

• Dominic Smith has hit the Hits Over in 21 of his last 25 games (+13.95 Units / 32% ROI)
• Matt Olson has hit the RBIs Over in 14 of his last 20 away games (+13.55 Units / 68% ROI)
• Dominic Smith has hit the Total Bases Over in 19 of his last 25 games (+12.10 Units / 32% ROI)
• Matt Olson has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 16 of his last 20 away games (+11.40 Units / 49% ROI)
• Mike Yastrzemski has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 5 games (+10.10 Units / 202% ROI)

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Marlins Player Prop Best Bets Today:

• Xavier Edwards has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 6 games at home (+43.00 Units / 717% ROI)
• Otto Lopez has hit the Hits Over in 18 of his last 25 games at home (+14.25 Units / 33% ROI)
• Otto Lopez has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 20 of his last 25 games at home (+12.95 Units / 38% ROI)
• Xavier Edwards has hit the Runs Over in 16 of his last 25 games (+10.85 Units / 42% ROI)
• Javier Sanoja has hit the Singles Under in 13 of his last 15 games (+10.65 Units / 58% ROI)

Braves Best Bets Today:

• The Atlanta Braves have covered the Run Line in 40 of their last 50 away games (+32.60 Units / 52% ROI)
• The Atlanta Braves have hit the Moneyline in 35 of their last 50 away games (+21.75 Units / 36% ROI)
• The Atlanta Braves have hit the Team Total Over in 33 of their last 50 away games (+13.75 Units / 24% ROI)
• The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 31 of their last 50 away games (+10.40 Units / 18% ROI)
• The Atlanta Braves have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 27 of their last 45 games (+8.25 Units / 16% ROI)

Marlins Best Bets Today:

• The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in 29 of their last 45 games (+13.35 Units / 27% ROI)
• The Miami Marlins have hit the Team Total Under in 29 of their last 50 games (+5.95 Units / 10% ROI)
• The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 8 of their last 12 games (+3.05 Units / 19% ROI)
• The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 22 of their last 40 games at home (+1.75 Units / 3% ROI)
• The Miami Marlins have covered the Run Line in 12 of their last 25 games at home (+0.95 Units / 3% ROI)

Braves Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Braves are 33-17 against the Run Line (+21.3 Units / 37.6% ROI).

• 34-16 when betting on the Moneyline for +14 Units / 20.14% ROI
• 22-25 when betting on the total runs Over for -5.2 Units / -9.4% ROI
• 25-22 when betting on the total runs Under for +1.4 Units / 2.56% ROI

Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Marlins are 21-29 against the Run Line (-10.95 Units / -17.22% ROI).

• 22-28 when betting on the Moneyline for -5.1 Units / -8.42% ROI
• 31-17 when betting on the total runs Over for +12.1 Units / 21.82% ROI
• 17-31 when betting on the total runs Under for -16.85 Units / -30.89% ROI

Marlins vs Braves Home Run Prop Bets Today

Marlins vs Braves Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Marlins vs Braves Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Braves Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins

The Braves are 18-8 (.692) on the road this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .468.

The Braves are 34-16 (.680) this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Braves are 20-13 (.606) after a win this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .522.

The Braves are 18-3 (.857) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .702.

Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Braves

The Marlins were just 39-14 (.736) when leading entering the 7th inning in the 2024 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .856.

The Marlins were just 45-10 (.818) when leading entering the 8th inning in the 2024 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .899.

The Marlins are just 155-179 (.464) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits since the 2024 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .536.

The Marlins were just 60-86 (.411) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits in the 2024 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .538.

Braves Hitting Stats & Trends

Braves hitters are slugging .448 on the road this season — 2nd best in MLB.

Braves hitters are slugging .288 on pitches out of the zone this season — 2nd best in MLB.

Braves hitters are slugging .441 this season — best in MLB.

Braves hitters are slugging .316 with two-strikes this season — best in MLB.

Marlins Hitting Stats & Trends

Marlins hitters have put 41% of their swings in play on the first pitch of at-bats this season — highest in MLB.

Marlins hitters have an OBP of .262 (954 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — tied for 4th best in MLB.

Marlins hitters have an OPS of just .616 (416 PA’s) on pitches 95 mph or greater this season — 2nd lowest in MLB.

Marlins hitters are slugging just .422 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 2nd lowest in MLB.

Braves Pitching Stats & Trends

Braves pitchers have an ERA of 2.85 (218.0 IP) at home this season — 2nd best in MLB.

Braves pitchers have allowed an OBP of just .260 (446 PA’s) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 2nd best in MLB.

Braves pitchers have a strikeout rate of 46% with two-strikes this season — 3rd best in MLB.

Braves pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% with runners in scoring position this season — best in MLB.

Marlins Pitching Stats & Trends

Marlins pitchers have walked 12% of batters when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 3rd highest in MLB.

Marlins pitchers have an ERA of 5.25 (176.2 IP) on the road this season — 4th highest in MLB.

The longest HR allowed by the Marlins pitchers this season traveled 441.8 feet — — 5th shortest in MLB

Marlins pitchers have 85 three-pitch strikeouts this season — 4th most in MLB.

More MLB Reading:

• Home Run Predictions Today
• Best NRFI Bets Today
• Strikeout Props Today
• MLB Starting Pitchers Today

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