• The Padres are -140 favorites vs the Diamondbacks
• Diamondbacks vs Padres Over / Under today: 7.5 Runs
• Diamondbacks / Padres TV Channel: DBTV | PDTV

The Arizona Diamondbacks (+115) visit Petco Park to take on the San Diego Padres (-140) on September 25, 2026. First pitch is scheduled for 9:40 pm in San Diego, CA.

This season, the Diamondbacks are 85-74 against the spread (ATS), while the Padres are 87-69 ATS.

Diamondbacks vs Padres Starting Pitchers Today:

• Diamondbacks starting pitcher: Brandon Pfaadt 7-3, 3.72 ERA
• Padres starting pitcher: Undecided 0-0, 0.00 ERA

Diamondbacks vs. Padres Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

Diamondbacks vs Padres Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Padres will win Friday‘s MLB game with 54.8% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.

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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Diamondbacks players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Diamondbacks Player Prop Bets Today:

• Nolan Arenado has hit the Home Runs Over in 5 of his last 10 games (+24.00 Units / 240% ROI)
• Lars Nootbaar has hit the Runs Under in 20 of his last 25 games (+14.05 Units / 41% ROI)
• Gabriel Moreno has hit the Total Bases Over in 17 of his last 25 games (+12.55 Units / 48% ROI)
• Gabriel Moreno has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 19 of his last 25 away games (+11.65 Units / 37% ROI)
• Brandon Pfaadt has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 13 of his last 15 games (+10.95 Units / 60% ROI)

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Padres Player Prop Best Bets Today:

• Luis Campusano has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 10 games at home (+16.60 Units / 166% ROI)
• Manny Machado has hit the Hits Under in 11 of his last 15 games (+11.30 Units / 62% ROI)
• Fernando Tatis Jr. has hit the Runs Over in 18 of his last 25 games (+10.85 Units / 33% ROI)
• Samad Taylor has hit the Total Bases Over in 14 of his last 20 games (+8.80 Units / 35% ROI)
• Luis Campusano has hit the Singles Over in 15 of his last 25 games at home (+8.55 Units / 34% ROI)

Diamondbacks Best Bets Today:

• The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Under in 34 of their last 50 away games (+16.65 Units / 30% ROI)
• The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Moneyline in 22 of their last 35 away games (+13.70 Units / 35% ROI)
• The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 31 of their last 50 away games (+9.80 Units / 16% ROI)
• The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in their last 5 games (+5.35 Units / 74% ROI)
• The Arizona Diamondbacks have covered the Run Line in their last 5 games (+5.20 Units / 90% ROI)

Padres Best Bets Today:

• The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 33 of their last 45 games at home (+19.05 Units / 32% ROI)
• The San Diego Padres have covered the Run Line in 25 of their last 40 games (+12.50 Units / 25% ROI)
• The San Diego Padres have hit the Team Total Over in 32 of their last 50 games (+11.70 Units / 21% ROI)
• The San Diego Padres have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 32 of their last 50 games (+11.50 Units / 19% ROI)
• The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 28 of their last 50 games (+11.45 Units / 18% ROI)

Diamondbacks Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Diamondbacks are 83-71 against the Run Line (+0.45 Units / 0.21% ROI).

• 85-74 when betting on the Moneyline for +10.05 Units / 5.33% ROI
• 68-85 when betting on the total runs Over for -25.6 Units / -14.59% ROI
• 85-68 when betting on the total runs Under for +10.65 Units / 6.1% ROI

Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Padres are 87-69 against the Run Line (+13.6 Units / 6.55% ROI).

• 89-70 when betting on the Moneyline for +13.65 Units / 6.94% ROI
• 74-80 when betting on the total runs Over for -14.1 Units / -8.02% ROI
• 80-74 when betting on the total runs Under for -0.8 Units / -0.46% ROI

Diamondbacks Keys to the Game vs. the Padres

The Diamondbacks are 71-0 (1.000) when leading entering the 9th inning this season — tied for best in MLB.

The Diamondbacks were just 67-7 (.905) when leading entering the 9th inning in the 2025 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .956.

The Diamondbacks were just 67-13 (.838) when leading entering the 8th inning in the 2025 season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .909.

The Diamondbacks were just 61-17 (.782) when leading entering the 7th inning in the 2025 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .875.

Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Diamondbacks

The Padres are 13-8 (.619) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — tied for 4th best in MLB.

The Padres are 64-5 (.928) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB.

The Padres are 49-29 (.628) at home this season — 5th best in MLB.

The Padres are 71-2 (.973) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB.

Diamondbacks Hitting Stats & Trends

The Diamondbacks are batting .278 against LHP this season — best in MLB.

Diamondbacks hitters have struck out in just 18% of their PA’s against LHP this season — 2nd best in MLB.

Diamondbacks hitters are slugging .445 against LHP this season — 2nd best in MLB.

Diamondbacks hitters have an OPS of .787 (1,656 PA’s) against LHP this season — 2nd best in MLB.

Padres Hitting Stats & Trends

The Padres are batting .366 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 2nd best in MLB.

Padres hitters have an OPS of .731 (3,113 PA’s) on the road this season — 5th best in MLB.

The Padres are batting .250 with two outs this season — 3rd best in MLB.

Padres hitters are slugging just .379 at home this season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB.

Diamondbacks Pitching Stats & Trends

Diamondbacks pitchers have walked 7% of batters when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — tied for 3rd best in MLB.

Diamondbacks pitchers have walked 8% of batters this season — tied for 4th best in MLB.

Diamondbacks pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 18% with runners in scoring position this season — 3rd lowest in MLB.

The Diamondbacks have won 45% of road games in which their opponents scored first this season — highest in MLB.

Padres Pitching Stats & Trends

Padres pitchers have an ERA of 3.37 (716.0 IP) at home this season — 3rd best in MLB.

Padres pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 14% when going through the lineup the third time in a game this season — lowest in MLB.

The Padres have won 41% of games in which their opponents scored first this season — 5th highest in MLB.

The Padres have won 47% of home games in which their opponents scored first this season — 2nd highest in MLB.

More MLB Reading:

• Home Run Predictions Today
• Best NRFI Bets Today
• Strikeout Props Today
• MLB Starting Pitchers Today

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