• The Marlins are -155 favorites vs the Guardians
• Guardians vs Marlins Over / Under today: 8 Runs
• Guardians / Marlins TV Channel: GDTV | MATV

The Cleveland Guardians (+125) visit loanDepot park to take on the Miami Marlins (-155) on July 11, 2026. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10 pm in Miami, FL.

This season, the Guardians are 49-46 against the spread (ATS), while the Marlins are 52-42 ATS.

Guardians vs Marlins Starting Pitchers Today:

• Guardians starting pitcher: Tanner Bibee 2-9, 4.09 ERA
• Marlins starting pitcher: Eury Perez 5-6, 3.86 ERA

Guardians vs. Marlins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

Guardians vs Marlins Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Marlins will win Saturday‘s MLB game with 57.9% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.

Bet now on Guardians vs Marlins and all games with BetMGM

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Guardians Player Prop Bets Today:

• Brayan Rocchio has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 7 games (+13.00 Units / 186% ROI)
• Rhys Hoskins has hit the Singles Under in 21 of his last 25 away games (+12.35 Units / 24% ROI)
• Kyle Manzardo has hit the RBIs Under in 14 of his last 15 games (+11.55 Units / 33% ROI)
• Steven Kwan has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 16 of his last 20 games (+10.55 Units / 37% ROI)
• Chase DeLauter has hit the Hits Over in 13 of his last 15 games (+10.45 Units / 33% ROI)

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Marlins Player Prop Best Bets Today:

• Leonardo Jimenez has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 4 games (+16.50 Units / 412% ROI)
• Kyle Stowers has hit the Singles Under in 21 of his last 25 games at home (+14.90 Units / 39% ROI)
• Otto Lopez has hit the Hits Over in 11 of his last 15 games at home (+11.85 Units / 56% ROI)
• Xavier Edwards has hit the Total Bases Under in 19 of his last 25 games (+9.70 Units / 24% ROI)
• Otto Lopez has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 12 of his last 15 games at home (+8.20 Units / 40% ROI)

Guardians Best Bets Today:

• The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 20 of their last 45 away games (+9.20 Units / 18% ROI)
• The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 17 of their last 25 away games (+7.95 Units / 28% ROI)
• The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Team Total Under in 22 of their last 35 away games (+7.80 Units / 20% ROI)
• The Cleveland Guardians have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 27 of their last 45 away games (+6.80 Units / 13% ROI)
• The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 12 of their last 18 games (+6.25 Units / 29% ROI)

Marlins Best Bets Today:

• The Miami Marlins have covered the Run Line in 26 of their last 35 games (+20.15 Units / 43% ROI)
• The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 26 of their last 35 games (+17.20 Units / 43% ROI)
• The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 14 of their last 19 games at home (+10.00 Units / 42% ROI)
• The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 16 of their last 21 games (+10.00 Units / 38% ROI)
• The Miami Marlins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 11 of their last 13 games at home (+9.25 Units / 61% ROI)

Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Guardians are 45-49 against the Run Line (-6.55 Units / -5.33% ROI).

• 49-46 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.35 Units / 1.2% ROI
• 45-50 when betting on the total runs Over for -9.4 Units / -9.06% ROI
• 50-45 when betting on the total runs Under for +0.05 Units / 0.05% ROI

Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Marlins are 52-42 against the Run Line (+6.65 Units / 5.28% ROI).

• 52-43 when betting on the Moneyline for +10.3 Units / 9.23% ROI
• 51-41 when betting on the total runs Over for +5.55 Units / 5.27% ROI
• 41-51 when betting on the total runs Under for -14.7 Units / -14.16% ROI

Marlins vs Guardians Home Run Prop Bets Today

Marlins vs Guardians Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Marlins vs Guardians Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Guardians Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins

The Guardians are 34-3 (.919) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH since the 2025 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .794.

The Guardians are 110-7 (.940) when leading entering the 8th inning since the 2025 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .907.

The Guardians are 49-9 (.831) when they’ve had 10 or more hits since the 2025 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .745.

The Guardians are 68-61 (.523) on the road since the 2025 season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .465.

Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Guardians

The Marlins are 28-4 (.875) when they’ve had 10 or more hits this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .750.

The Marlins are 8-3 (.727) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Marlins are 43-10 (.811) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .726.

The Marlins are 40-3 (.930) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .865.

Guardians Hitting Stats & Trends

The Guardians are batting just .191 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — lowest in MLB.

Guardians hitters have an OBP of just .264 (408 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — lowest in MLB.

Guardians hitters have an OBP of just .232 (247 PA’s) against pitchers who have thrown at least 80 pitches in a game this season — lowest in MLB.

The Guardians are batting just .215 on the road this season — lowest in MLB.

Marlins Hitting Stats & Trends

Marlins hitters have put 40% of their swings in play on the first pitch of at-bats this season — highest in MLB.

Marlins hitters have an OBP of .334 (2,676 PA’s) against RHP this season — 5th best in MLB.

The Marlins have a winning percentage of 63% at home this season — 3rd best in MLB.

Marlins hitters have a Hard-Hit Rate of just 34% on the first pitch of at-bats this season — lowest in MLB.

Guardians Pitching Stats & Trends

Opponents have a miss rate of 27% against Guardians pitchers this season — 5th best in MLB.

Guardians pitchers have a strikeout rate of 24% this season — 4th best in MLB.

Guardians pitchers have allowed innings of 3+ runs in 4% of innings played this season — lowest in MLB.

Guardians pitchers have a strikeout rate of 24% with runners in scoring position this season — 3rd best in MLB.

Marlins Pitching Stats & Trends

Marlins pitchers have allowed 93 home runs this season — tied for 3rd fewest in MLB.

Opponents are hitting just .228 against Marlins pitchers this season — tied for 3rd best in MLB.

Marlins pitchers have a first-pitch strike rate of 63% this season — 4th highest in MLB.

The Marlins have allowed 1.13 runs per game (107/95) in late innings this season — tied for 5th best in MLB.

More MLB Reading:

• Home Run Predictions Today
• Best NRFI Bets Today
• Strikeout Props Today
• MLB Starting Pitchers Today

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