- The Red Sox are -125 favorites vs the Guardians
- Guardians vs Red Sox Over / Under today: 6.5 Runs
- Guardians / Red Sox TV Channel: GDTV | NESN
The Cleveland Guardians (+105) visit Fenway Park to take on the Boston Red Sox (-125) on September 22, 2026. First pitch is scheduled for 6:45 pm in Boston, MA.
This season, the Guardians are 81-75 against the spread (ATS), while the Red Sox are 74-78 ATS.
Guardians vs Red Sox Starting Pitchers Today:
- Guardians starting pitcher: Parker Messick 12-9, 2.60 ERA
- Red Sox starting pitcher: Payton Tolle 9-6, 3.04 ERA
Guardians vs. Red Sox Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Guardians | +1.5 -200 | O 6.5 +100 | +105 |
| Red Sox | -1.5 +165 | U 6.5 -120 | -125 |
Guardians vs Red Sox Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Red Sox will win Tuesday‘s MLB game with 56.9% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Guardians Player Prop Bets Today:
- Travis Bazzana has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 7 games (+17.50 Units / 250% ROI)
- Steven Kwan has hit the Hits Over in 20 of his last 25 away games (+14.90 Units / 31% ROI)
- Jose Ramirez has hit the RBIs Under in 21 of his last 25 games (+12.45 Units / 24% ROI)
- Steven Kwan has hit the Singles Over in 19 of his last 25 away games (+10.10 Units / 26% ROI)
- Steven Kwan has hit the Total Bases Over in 15 of his last 25 away games (+9.50 Units / 35% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Red Sox Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Trevor Story has hit the Total Bases Over in 20 of his last 25 games (+16.75 Units / 50% ROI)
- Trevor Story has hit the Hits Over in 22 of his last 25 games (+15.85 Units / 34% ROI)
- Adley Rutschman has hit the Walks Under in 18 of his last 20 games (+14.60 Units / 39% ROI)
- Wilyer Abreu has hit the RBIs Under in 21 of his last 25 games (+13.95 Units / 28% ROI)
- Jahmai Jones has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 18 of his last 25 games (+11.50 Units / 38% ROI)
Guardians Best Bets Today:
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 31 of their last 50 away games (+9.80 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 20 of their last 30 games (+6.10 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Team Total Over in 27 of their last 45 games (+6.00 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 6 of their last 8 games (+4.00 Units / 41% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 5 of their last 7 games (+3.30 Units / 26% ROI)
Red Sox Best Bets Today:
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 21 of their last 30 games (+11.15 Units / 31% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 13 of their last 15 games (+10.90 Units / 66% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Team Total Over in 25 of their last 40 games at home (+8.15 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 24 of their last 40 games at home (+6.60 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have covered the Run Line in 20 of their last 40 games at home (+3.95 Units / 9% ROI)
Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Guardians are 72-83 against the Run Line (-16.35 Units / -8.29% ROI).
- 81-75 when betting on the Moneyline for -3.5 Units / -1.77% ROI
- 75-79 when betting on the total runs Over for -10.75 Units / -6.34% ROI
- 79-75 when betting on the total runs Under for -4.55 Units / -2.62% ROI
Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Red Sox are 74-78 against the Run Line (-2.55 Units / -1.33% ROI).
- 84-72 when betting on the Moneyline for -6.65 Units / -3.21% ROI
- 70-82 when betting on the total runs Over for -20.85 Units / -12.08% ROI
- 82-70 when betting on the total runs Under for +5.15 Units / 3.01% ROI
Guardians Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox
The Guardians are 58-5 (.921) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 5th best in MLB.
The Guardians are 18-20 (.474) when their opponents score in the first inning this season — 3rd best in MLB.
The Guardians are 32-18 (.640) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2024 season — 2nd best in MLB.
The Guardians were 71-2 (.973) when leading entering the 7th inning in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .856.
Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Guardians
The Red Sox are 50-34 (.595) after a win this season — 4th best in MLB.
The Red Sox are 62-5 (.925) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — tied for 3rd best in MLB.
The Red Sox are 13-58 (.183) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 5th best in MLB.
The Red Sox are 70-2 (.972) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB.
Guardians Hitting Stats & Trends
Guardians hitters are slugging just .377 this season — 2nd lowest in MLB.
Guardians hitters are slugging just .387 against RHP this season — 5th lowest in MLB.
The Guardians are batting just .229 against LHP this season — 3rd lowest in MLB.
Guardians hitters are slugging just .251 with two-strikes this season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB.
Red Sox Hitting Stats & Trends
29% of Red Sox hitters strikeouts have come on 95+ MPH fastballs this season — 4th highest in MLB.
The Red Sox have a winning percentage of 57% on the road this season — 4th best in MLB.
Red Sox hitters are slugging .240 on pitches out of the zone this season — 4th best in MLB.
The Red Sox are batting .175 on pitches out of the zone this season — 3rd best in MLB.
Guardians Pitching Stats & Trends
Guardians pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% with runners in scoring position this season — best in MLB.
Guardians pitchers have a strikeout rate of 30% in close and late situations this season — best in MLB.
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Guardians pitchers this season — 4th best in MLB.
Guardians pitchers have an ERA of 3.32 (441.2 IP) against division opponents this season — 3rd best in MLB.
Red Sox Pitching Stats & Trends
The Red Sox have allowed 0.99 runs per game (154/156) in late innings this season — best in MLB.
The Red Sox have allowed 3.62 runs per game (293/81) on the road this season — 3rd best in MLB.
Red Sox pitchers have walked 8% of batters this season — 3rd best in MLB.
Red Sox pitchers have allowed a run just 24% of the time after their offense scores this season — lowest in MLB.
More MLB Reading:
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