• The Mariners are -120 favorites vs the Padres
• Mariners vs Padres Over / Under today: 8.5 Runs
• Mariners / Padres TV Channel: MLBN | MRTV | PDTV

The Seattle Mariners (-120) visit Petco Park to take on the San Diego Padres (+100) on April 16, 2026. First pitch is scheduled for 8:40 pm in San Diego, CA.

This season, the Mariners are 8-11 against the spread (ATS), while the Padres are 12-5 ATS.

Mariners vs Padres Starting Pitchers Today:

• Mariners starting pitcher: Luis Castillo 0-0, 7.11 ERA
• Padres starting pitcher: Walker Buehler 0-1, 4.98 ERA

Mariners vs. Padres Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

Mariners vs Padres Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Padres will win Thursday‘s MLB game with 51.0% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.

Bet now on Mariners vs Padres and all games with BetMGM

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mariners players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Mariners Player Prop Bets Today:

• Josh Naylor has hit the Hits Under in 13 of his last 20 games (+12.05 Units / 53% ROI)
• Randy Arozarena has hit the Singles Over in 12 of his last 15 away games (+11.10 Units / 73% ROI)
• Josh Naylor has hit the Total Bases Under in 16 of his last 20 games (+10.85 Units / 34% ROI)
• Josh Naylor has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 15 of his last 20 games (+9.20 Units / 38% ROI)
• Josh Naylor has hit the Runs Under in 16 of his last 20 games (+8.95 Units / 25% ROI)

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Padres Player Prop Best Bets Today:

• Xander Bogaerts has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 7 games (+23.50 Units / 336% ROI)
• Jake Cronenworth has hit the Total Bases Under in 19 of his last 25 games (+13.50 Units / 46% ROI)
• Gavin Sheets has hit the Singles Under in 20 of his last 25 games at home (+12.15 Units / 32% ROI)
• Manny Machado has hit the Walks Over in 10 of his last 15 games (+11.95 Units / 80% ROI)
• Jake Cronenworth has hit the Hits Under in 17 of his last 25 games (+11.00 Units / 43% ROI)

Mariners Best Bets Today:

• The Seattle Mariners have hit the Team Total Under in 29 of their last 45 away games (+10.25 Units / 19% ROI)
• The Seattle Mariners have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 26 of their last 45 away games (+6.20 Units / 12% ROI)
• The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Over in 21 of their last 35 away games (+5.85 Units / 15% ROI)
• The Seattle Mariners have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 26 of their last 45 games (+4.90 Units / 9% ROI)
• The Seattle Mariners have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 23 of their last 45 games (+3.90 Units / 6% ROI)

Padres Best Bets Today:

• The San Diego Padres have covered the Run Line in 30 of their last 50 games at home (+13.05 Units / 21% ROI)
• The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 23 of their last 35 games (+10.15 Units / 21% ROI)
• The San Diego Padres have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 28 of their last 45 games at home (+8.70 Units / 16% ROI)
• The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 27 of their last 45 games at home (+8.05 Units / 12% ROI)
• The San Diego Padres have hit the Team Total Over in 9 of their last 10 games (+7.90 Units / 70% ROI)

Mariners Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Mariners are 7-12 against the Run Line (-4.65 Units / -21.99% ROI).

• 8-11 when betting on the Moneyline for -6.7 Units / -24.86% ROI
• 9-10 when betting on the total runs Over for -2 Units / -9.59% ROI
• 10-9 when betting on the total runs Under for +0.05 Units / 0.24% ROI

Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Padres are 12-5 against the Run Line (+5.65 Units / 21.94% ROI).

• 12-6 when betting on the Moneyline for +6.25 Units / 27.35% ROI
• 9-8 when betting on the total runs Over for +0.35 Units / 1.78% ROI
• 8-9 when betting on the total runs Under for -1.9 Units / -9.5% ROI

Padres vs Mariners Home Run Prop Bets Today

Padres vs Mariners Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Padres vs Mariners Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Mariners Keys to the Game vs. the Padres

The Mariners are just 0-10 (.000) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .108.

The Mariners are just 1-7 (.125) on the road this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .429.

The Mariners were 70-3 (.959) when leading entering the 8th inning in the 2025 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .909.

The Mariners were 9-55 (.141) when trailing entering the 8th inning in the 2025 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .090.

Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Mariners

The Padres are 1-6 (.143) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .040.

The Padres are 29-19 (.604) vs the top 10 runs allowed teams since the 2025 season Today, they face Mariners (fourth in runs allowed).

The Padres are 33-13 (.717) when they’ve scored in the first inning since the 2025 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .637.

The Padres are 55-12 (.821) when they’ve had 10 or more hits since the 2025 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .749.

Mariners Hitting Stats & Trends

Mariners hitters slugged .712 on the first pitch of at-bats in the 2025 season — best in MLB.

Mariners hitters are slugging just .254 on the road this season — lowest in MLB.

The Mariners are batting just .171 against LHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB.

The Mariners are batting just .173 on the road this season — tied for lowest in MLB.

Padres Hitting Stats & Trends

Padres hitters struck out in just 18% of their PA’s against LHP in the 2025 season — best in MLB.

Padres hitters have struck out in just 18% of their PA’s against LHP since the 2024 season — best in MLB.

Padres hitters struck out in just 19% of their PA’s in the 2025 season — 3rd best in MLB.

Padres hitters have 27 extra-base hits out of 53 total hits (51%) with two-strikes this season — best in MLB.

Mariners Pitching Stats & Trends

Mariners pitchers have a first-pitch strike rate of 67% this season — highest in MLB.

Mariners pitchers have thrown at least two strikes in their first three pitches to 71% of opposing batters this season — highest in MLB.

The Mariners pitchers have allowed division opponents to score first in just 30% of their games since the 2024 season — lowest in MLB.

Mariners pitchers have walked 6% of batters when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the 2024 season — best in MLB.

Padres Pitching Stats & Trends

Opponents have a miss rate of 29% against Padres pitchers this season — tied for 4th best in MLB.

Padres pitchers had a strikeout rate of 45% with two-strikes in the 2025 season — 4th best in MLB.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 47% against Padres pitchers this season — 4th highest in MLB.

Padres pitchers have a strikeout rate of 47% with two-strikes this season — tied for 4th best in MLB.

More MLB Reading:

• Home Run Predictions Today
• Best NRFI Bets Today
• Strikeout Props Today
• MLB Starting Pitchers Today

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