• The Marlins are -105 favorites vs the Rays
• Marlins vs Rays Over / Under today: 8 Runs
• Marlins / Rays TV Channel: MATV | RATV | ESUN

The Miami Marlins (-105) visit Tropicana Field to take on the Tampa Bay Rays (-115) on May 15, 2026. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10 pm in St. Petersburg, FL.

This season, the Marlins are 20-24 against the spread (ATS), while the Rays are 25-17 ATS.

Marlins vs Rays Starting Pitchers Today:

• Marlins starting pitcher: Janson Junk 2-3, 3.25 ERA
• Rays starting pitcher: Jesse Scholtens 3-2, 3.34 ERA

Marlins vs. Rays Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

Marlins vs Rays Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Rays will win Friday‘s MLB game with 52.3% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.

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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Marlins Player Prop Bets Today:

• Xavier Edwards has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 6 games (+19.00 Units / 317% ROI)
• Christopher Morel has hit the Singles Under in 14 of his last 15 away games (+12.05 Units / 37% ROI)
• Javier Sanoja has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 16 of his last 20 games (+11.80 Units / 45% ROI)
• Javier Sanoja has hit the Hits Under in 11 of his last 15 games (+11.10 Units / 74% ROI)
• Xavier Edwards has hit the Walks Over in 13 of his last 25 games (+9.25 Units / 37% ROI)

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Rays players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Rays Player Prop Best Bets Today:

• Nick Fortes has hit the Hits Over in 20 of his last 25 games (+12.65 Units / 34% ROI)
• Nick Fortes has hit the Total Bases Over in 19 of his last 25 games (+12.05 Units / 35% ROI)
• Jonathan Aranda has hit the RBIs Over in 12 of his last 25 games (+9.20 Units / 37% ROI)
• Cedric Mullins has hit the Runs Under in 13 of his last 15 games (+8.85 Units / 27% ROI)
• Chandler Simpson has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 15 of his last 20 games at home (+8.35 Units / 32% ROI)

Marlins Best Bets Today:

• The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in 25 of their last 40 away games (+10.55 Units / 24% ROI)
• The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 31 of their last 50 away games (+9.14 Units / 15% ROI)
• The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 8 of their last 12 away games (+8.10 Units / 61% ROI)
• The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 17 of their last 35 away games (+7.10 Units / 19% ROI)
• The Miami Marlins have hit the Team Total Under in 14 of their last 21 games (+6.00 Units / 23% ROI)

Rays Best Bets Today:

• The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Moneyline in 26 of their last 35 games (+17.75 Units / 44% ROI)
• The Tampa Bay Rays have covered the Run Line in 23 of their last 35 games (+13.10 Units / 29% ROI)
• The Tampa Bay Rays have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 27 of their last 40 games (+11.10 Units / 22% ROI)
• The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 21 of their last 40 games (+8.15 Units / 17% ROI)
• The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Game Total Under in 12 of their last 17 games (+7.60 Units / 41% ROI)

Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Marlins are 19-25 against the Run Line (-6.75 Units / -12.45% ROI).

• 20-24 when betting on the Moneyline for -3.25 Units / -5.96% ROI
• 25-17 when betting on the total runs Over for +6.1 Units / 12.45% ROI
• 17-25 when betting on the total runs Under for -10.1 Units / -21.13% ROI

Rays Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Rays are 25-17 against the Run Line (+8.65 Units / 15.66% ROI).

• 28-14 when betting on the Moneyline for +14.5 Units / 29.93% ROI
• 20-19 when betting on the total runs Over for -1 Units / -2.18% ROI
• 19-20 when betting on the total runs Under for -3.35 Units / -7.2% ROI

Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Rays

The Marlins are just 14-3 (.824) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .895.

The Marlins are 10-1 (.909) when they’ve had 10 or more hits this season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .756.

The Marlins were just 39-14 (.736) when leading entering the 7th inning in the 2024 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .856.

The Marlins were just 45-10 (.818) when leading entering the 8th inning in the 2024 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .899.

Rays Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins

The Rays are 5-11 (.312) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .135.

The Rays are 14-4 (.778) at home this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .543.

The Rays are 23-2 (.920) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .721.

The Rays are 21-1 (.955) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .895.

Marlins Hitting Stats & Trends

Marlins hitters are slugging just .384 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 2nd lowest in MLB.

Marlins hitters have 10 extra-base hits out of 53 total hits (just 19%) on the first pitch of at-bats this season — lowest in MLB.

The Marlins are batting just .279 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 2nd lowest in MLB.

Marlins hitters have an OBP of .267 (843 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB.

Rays Hitting Stats & Trends

Rays hitters have missed on just 19% of swings this season — best in MLB.

Rays hitters have 64 extra-base hits out of 248 total hits (just 26%) against RHP this season — lowest in MLB.

Rays hitters have a Hard-Hit Rate of just 34% this season — lowest in MLB.

Rays hitters have struck out in just 19% of their PA’s against RHP this season — 2nd best in MLB.

Marlins Pitching Stats & Trends

Marlins pitchers have walked 11% of batters when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — tied for 2nd highest in MLB.

Marlins pitchers have an ERA of 5.26 (150.2 IP) on the road this season — 4th highest in MLB.

The Marlins have allowed 5.33 runs per game (96/18) on the road this season — tied for 4th highest in MLB.

Marlins pitchers have 78 three-pitch strikeouts this season — 4th most in MLB.

Rays Pitching Stats & Trends

Rays pitchers have an ERA of 2.72 (109.1 IP) against division opponents this season — 2nd best in MLB.

Rays pitchers have walked 7% of batters when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 4th best in MLB.

Rays pitchers have allowed an OBP of just .258 (380 PA’s) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 2nd best in MLB.

Rays pitchers have an ERA of 3.52 (378.2 IP) this season — 5th best in MLB.

More MLB Reading:

• Home Run Predictions Today
• Best NRFI Bets Today
• Strikeout Props Today
• MLB Starting Pitchers Today

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