• The Rays are -145 favorites vs the Marlins
• Marlins vs Rays Over / Under today: 7.5 Runs
• Marlins / Rays TV Channel: MATV | RATV

The Miami Marlins (+120) visit Tropicana Field to take on the Tampa Bay Rays (-145) on May 16, 2026. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10 pm in St. Petersburg, FL.

This season, the Marlins are 20-25 against the spread (ATS), while the Rays are 26-17 ATS.

Marlins vs Rays Starting Pitchers Today:

• Marlins starting pitcher: Sandy Alcantara 3-2, 3.95 ERA
• Rays starting pitcher: Nick Martinez 4-1, 1.70 ERA

Marlins vs. Rays Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

Marlins vs Rays Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Rays will win Saturday‘s MLB game with 55.7% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.

Bet now on Marlins vs Rays and all games with BetMGM

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Marlins Player Prop Bets Today:

• Liam Hicks has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 9 away games (+34.50 Units / 383% ROI)
• Christopher Morel has hit the Singles Under in 14 of his last 15 away games (+12.05 Units / 38% ROI)
• Christopher Morel has hit the Runs Under in 17 of his last 20 games (+10.40 Units / 26% ROI)
• Kyle Stowers has hit the Hits Under in 12 of his last 20 games (+10.20 Units / 51% ROI)
• Kyle Stowers has hit the Total Bases Under in 15 of his last 20 games (+9.10 Units / 31% ROI)

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Rays players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Rays Player Prop Best Bets Today:

• Yandy Diaz has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 6 games at home (+14.20 Units / 237% ROI)
• Nick Fortes has hit the Hits Over in 20 of his last 25 games (+12.65 Units / 34% ROI)
• Nick Fortes has hit the Total Bases Over in 19 of his last 25 games (+12.05 Units / 35% ROI)
• Chandler Simpson has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 19 of his last 25 games at home (+10.75 Units / 33% ROI)
• Chandler Simpson has hit the Singles Over in 20 of his last 25 games at home (+10.75 Units / 23% ROI)

Marlins Best Bets Today:

• The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in 26 of their last 40 away games (+12.75 Units / 29% ROI)
• The Miami Marlins have hit the Team Total Under in 30 of their last 50 games (+8.05 Units / 14% ROI)
• The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 8 of their last 13 away games (+7.00 Units / 49% ROI)
• The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 30 of their last 50 away games (+6.74 Units / 11% ROI)
• The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 18 of their last 40 away games (+4.25 Units / 10% ROI)

Rays Best Bets Today:

• The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Moneyline in 26 of their last 35 games (+17.75 Units / 44% ROI)
• The Tampa Bay Rays have covered the Run Line in 23 of their last 35 games at home (+15.70 Units / 35% ROI)
• The Tampa Bay Rays have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 24 of their last 35 games at home (+12.30 Units / 30% ROI)
• The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 22 of their last 35 games at home (+8.70 Units / 19% ROI)
• The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Team Total Over in 30 of their last 50 games (+6.60 Units / 11% ROI)

Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Marlins are 19-26 against the Run Line (-8.75 Units / -15.57% ROI).

• 20-25 when betting on the Moneyline for -4.25 Units / -7.66% ROI
• 26-17 when betting on the total runs Over for +7.1 Units / 14.19% ROI
• 17-26 when betting on the total runs Under for -11.25 Units / -22.98% ROI

Rays Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Rays are 26-17 against the Run Line (+10.35 Units / 18.4% ROI).

• 29-14 when betting on the Moneyline for +15.5 Units / 31.22% ROI
• 21-19 when betting on the total runs Over for +0 Units / 0% ROI
• 19-21 when betting on the total runs Under for -4.5 Units / -9.44% ROI

Rays vs Marlins Home Run Prop Bets Today

Rays vs Marlins Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Rays vs Marlins Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Rays

The Marlins are just 14-3 (.824) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .894.

The Marlins are just 6-13 (.316) on the road this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .459.

The Marlins were just 39-14 (.736) when leading entering the 7th inning in the 2024 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .856.

The Marlins were just 45-10 (.818) when leading entering the 8th inning in the 2024 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .899.

Rays Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins

The Rays are 29-14 (.674) this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Rays are 24-2 (.923) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .720.

The Rays are 5-11 (.312) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .134.

The Rays are 23-0 (1.000) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .866.

Marlins Hitting Stats & Trends

Marlins hitters are slugging just .376 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — lowest in MLB.

Marlins hitters have 10 extra-base hits out of 54 total hits (just 18%) on the first pitch of at-bats this season — lowest in MLB.

Marlins hitters have an OBP of .265 (858 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — 4th best in MLB.

The Marlins are batting just .274 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 2nd lowest in MLB.

Rays Hitting Stats & Trends

Rays hitters are slugging .306 on pitches out of the zone this season — best in MLB.

Rays hitters have struck out in just 19% of their PA’s this season — 2nd best in MLB.

Rays hitters have missed on just 19% of swings this season — best in MLB.

The Rays are batting .218 on pitches out of the zone this season — best in MLB.

Marlins Pitching Stats & Trends

Marlins pitchers have walked 11% of batters when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 3rd highest in MLB.

Marlins pitchers have an ERA of 5.39 (158.2 IP) on the road this season — 3rd highest in MLB.

The Marlins have allowed 5.42 runs per game (103/19) on the road this season — 4th highest in MLB.

Marlins pitchers have had second base stolen on them 47 times this season — most in MLB.

Rays Pitching Stats & Trends

Rays pitchers have walked 6% of batters when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 4th best in MLB.

Rays pitchers have allowed an OBP of just .252 (389 PA’s) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — best in MLB.

Rays pitchers have a first-pitch strike rate of 64% this season — 2nd highest in MLB.

Rays pitchers have induced opposing hitters to ground into just 21 double plays in 277 opportunities (8%) this season — 3rd lowest in MLB.

More MLB Reading:

• Home Run Predictions Today
• Best NRFI Bets Today
• Strikeout Props Today
• MLB Starting Pitchers Today

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