• The Rays are -160 favorites vs the Marlins
• Marlins vs Rays Over / Under today: 7.5 Runs
• Marlins / Rays TV Channel: PEAC

The Miami Marlins (+135) visit Tropicana Field to take on the Tampa Bay Rays (-160) on May 17, 2026. First pitch is scheduled for 12:15 pm in St. Petersburg, FL.

This season, the Marlins are 21-25 against the spread (ATS), while the Rays are 26-18 ATS.

Marlins vs Rays Starting Pitchers Today:

• Marlins starting pitcher: Eury Perez 2-5, 4.95 ERA
• Rays starting pitcher: Drew Rasmussen 3-1, 3.14 ERA

Marlins vs. Rays Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

Marlins vs Rays Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Rays will win Sunday‘s MLB game with 63.0% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.

Bet now on Marlins vs Rays and all games with BetMGM

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Marlins Player Prop Bets Today:

• Liam Hicks has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 10 away games (+33.50 Units / 335% ROI)
• Kyle Stowers has hit the RBIs Under in 14 of his last 15 games (+12.40 Units / 40% ROI)
• Javier Sanoja has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 16 of his last 20 games (+11.45 Units / 43% ROI)
• Javier Sanoja has hit the Hits Under in 13 of his last 20 games (+10.55 Units / 53% ROI)
• Kyle Stowers has hit the Total Bases Under in 18 of his last 25 games (+9.55 Units / 26% ROI)

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Rays players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Rays Player Prop Best Bets Today:

• Chandler Simpson has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 20 of his last 25 games at home (+13.35 Units / 41% ROI)
• Yandy Diaz has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 7 games at home (+13.20 Units / 189% ROI)
• Nick Fortes has hit the Hits Over in 20 of his last 25 games (+12.65 Units / 34% ROI)
• Nick Fortes has hit the Total Bases Over in 19 of his last 25 games (+12.05 Units / 35% ROI)
• Drew Rasmussen has hit the Hits Allowed Under in 19 of his last 25 games (+12.00 Units / 38% ROI)

Marlins Best Bets Today:

• The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in 21 of their last 30 away games (+13.40 Units / 40% ROI)
• The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 8 of their last 14 away games (+6.00 Units / 39% ROI)
• The Miami Marlins have hit the Team Total Under in 29 of their last 50 games (+5.95 Units / 10% ROI)
• The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 7 of their last 8 games (+5.75 Units / 54% ROI)
• The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 18 of their last 40 away games (+4.25 Units / 10% ROI)

Rays Best Bets Today:

• The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Moneyline in 25 of their last 35 games (+15.35 Units / 37% ROI)
• The Tampa Bay Rays have covered the Run Line in 22 of their last 35 games at home (+13.15 Units / 29% ROI)
• The Tampa Bay Rays have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 24 of their last 35 games at home (+12.35 Units / 30% ROI)
• The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 22 of their last 35 games at home (+8.70 Units / 19% ROI)
• The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Team Total Over in 28 of their last 45 games (+7.70 Units / 14% ROI)

Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Marlins are 20-26 against the Run Line (-7.75 Units / -13.37% ROI).

• 21-25 when betting on the Moneyline for -3.1 Units / -5.49% ROI
• 27-17 when betting on the total runs Over for +8.1 Units / 15.84% ROI
• 17-27 when betting on the total runs Under for -12.35 Units / -24.68% ROI

Rays Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Rays are 26-18 against the Run Line (+9.35 Units / 16.33% ROI).

• 29-15 when betting on the Moneyline for +14.1 Units / 27.62% ROI
• 22-19 when betting on the total runs Over for +1 Units / 2.08% ROI
• 19-22 when betting on the total runs Under for -5.6 Units / -11.49% ROI

Rays vs Marlins Home Run Prop Bets Today

Rays vs Marlins Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Rays vs Marlins Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Rays

The Marlins are just 14-3 (.824) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .895.

The Marlins are 11-1 (.917) when they’ve had 10 or more hits this season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .757.

The Marlins were just 39-14 (.736) when leading entering the 7th inning in the 2024 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .856.

The Marlins were just 45-10 (.818) when leading entering the 8th inning in the 2024 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .899.

Rays Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins

The Rays are 5-11 (.312) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .136.

The Rays are 24-2 (.923) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .720.

The Rays are 29-15 (.659) this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Rays are 15-5 (.750) at home this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .539.

Marlins Hitting Stats & Trends

Marlins hitters have 13 extra-base hits out of 61 total hits (just 21%) on the first pitch of at-bats this season — lowest in MLB.

Marlins hitters are slugging just .420 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 2nd lowest in MLB.

Marlins hitters have put 41% of their swings in play on the first pitch of at-bats this season — highest in MLB.

Marlins hitters have an OBP of .263 (878 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — 4th best in MLB.

Rays Hitting Stats & Trends

Rays hitters have missed on just 19% of swings this season — best in MLB.

Rays hitters are slugging .301 on pitches out of the zone this season — best in MLB.

Rays hitters have struck out in just 19% of their PA’s against RHP this season — 2nd best in MLB.

Rays hitters have 28 extra-base hits out of 116 total hits (just 24%) against LHP this season — lowest in MLB.

Marlins Pitching Stats & Trends

Marlins pitchers have walked 11% of batters when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — tied for 3rd highest in MLB.

Marlins pitchers have 80 three-pitch strikeouts this season — 4th most in MLB.

Marlins pitchers have allowed 56 stolen bases this season — most in MLB.

Marlins pitchers have had second base stolen on them 49 times this season — most in MLB.

Rays Pitching Stats & Trends

Rays pitchers have allowed an OBP of just .253 (399 PA’s) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — best in MLB.

Rays pitchers have a first-pitch strike rate of 64% this season — 2nd highest in MLB.

Rays pitchers have walked 7% of batters when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 4th best in MLB.

Rays pitchers have an ERA of 2.80 (109.1 IP) against division opponents this season — 2nd best in MLB.

More MLB Reading:

• Home Run Predictions Today
• Best NRFI Bets Today
• Strikeout Props Today
• MLB Starting Pitchers Today

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