• The Twins are -125 favorites vs the Marlins
• Marlins vs Twins Over / Under today: 8.5 Runs
• Marlins / Twins TV Channel: TWTV | MATV

The Miami Marlins (+105) visit Target Field to take on the Minnesota Twins (-125) on May 14, 2026. First pitch is scheduled for 1:40 pm in Minneapolis, MN.

This season, the Marlins are against the spread (ATS), while the Twins are ATS.

Marlins vs Twins Starting Pitchers Today:

• Marlins starting pitcher: Robby Snelling 0-1, 5.40 ERA
• Twins starting pitcher: Zebby Matthews 0-0, 0.00 ERA

Marlins vs. Twins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

Marlins vs Twins Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Twins will win Thursday‘s MLB game with 52.0% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.

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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Marlins Player Prop Bets Today:

• Liam Hicks has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 7 away games (+36.50 Units / 521% ROI)
• Xavier Edwards has hit the Walks Over in 13 of his last 25 games (+9.65 Units / 39% ROI)
• Otto Lopez has hit the Hits Over in 15 of his last 25 games (+9.60 Units / 27% ROI)
• Christopher Morel has hit the Singles Under in 13 of his last 15 away games (+9.55 Units / 30% ROI)
• Javier Sanoja has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 15 of his last 20 games (+9.25 Units / 35% ROI)

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Twins players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Twins Player Prop Best Bets Today:

• Byron Buxton has hit the Home Runs Over in 6 of his last 9 games at home (+18.80 Units / 209% ROI)
• Austin Martin has hit the Walks Over in 15 of his last 25 games (+11.20 Units / 45% ROI)
• Austin Martin has hit the Hits Over in 17 of his last 20 games (+11.20 Units / 30% ROI)
• Josh Bell has hit the Total Bases Under in 18 of his last 25 games (+10.95 Units / 29% ROI)
• Byron Buxton has hit the RBIs Over in 11 of his last 20 games (+10.75 Units / 54% ROI)

Marlins Best Bets Today:

• The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in 22 of their last 35 away games (+9.95 Units / 26% ROI)
• The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 8 of their last 11 away games (+9.30 Units / 77% ROI)
• The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 31 of their last 50 away games (+9.09 Units / 15% ROI)
• The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 17 of their last 35 away games (+7.20 Units / 19% ROI)
• The Miami Marlins have hit the Team Total Over in 21 of their last 35 away games (+5.70 Units / 14% ROI)

Twins Best Bets Today:

• The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Over in 20 of their last 30 games (+11.10 Units / 34% ROI)
• The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 15 of their last 19 games at home (+10.85 Units / 49% ROI)
• The Minnesota Twins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 15 of their last 19 games at home (+10.40 Units / 45% ROI)
• The Minnesota Twins have hit the Team Total Over in 31 of their last 50 games (+8.80 Units / 15% ROI)
• The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 14 of their last 19 games at home (+8.65 Units / 37% ROI)

Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Marlins are against the Run Line ( Units / ROI).

• away moneyline record when betting on the Moneyline for ML units Units / ML ROI ROI
• away total over record when betting on the total runs Over for over units Units / over ROI ROI
• away total under record when betting on the total runs Under for under units Units / under ROI ROI

Twins Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Twins are against the Run Line ( Units / ROI).

• home moneyline record when betting on the Moneyline for ML units Units / ML ROI ROI
• home total over record when betting on the total runs Over for over units Units / over ROI ROI
• home total under record when betting on the total runs Under for under units Units / under ROI ROI

Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Twins

The Marlins are 10-1 (.909) when they’ve had 10 or more hits this season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .754.

The Marlins are just 14-3 (.824) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .895.

The Marlins were just 39-14 (.736) when leading entering the 7th inning in the 2024 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .856.

The Marlins were just 62-100 (.383) in the 2024 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.

Twins Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins

The Twins are just 1-9 (.100) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .295.

The Twins are just 0-20 (.000) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .050.

The Twins are just 0-18 (.000) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .105.

The Twins are just 2-18 (.100) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .212.

Marlins Hitting Stats & Trends

Marlins hitters are slugging just .390 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 2nd lowest in MLB.

Marlins hitters have put 41% of their swings in play on the first pitch of at-bats this season — highest in MLB.

The Marlins are batting just .283 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 3rd lowest in MLB.

Marlins hitters are slugging .510 on breaking pitches against LHP this season — best in MLB.

Twins Hitting Stats & Trends

Twins hitters are slugging .485 in righty-righty matchups this season — best in MLB.

Twins hitters have a 54% QAB rate with runners in scoring position this season — best in MLB.

The Twins are batting .291 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — 4th best in MLB.

The Twins are batting just .193 with two outs this season — 3rd lowest in MLB.

Marlins Pitching Stats & Trends

Marlins pitchers have an ERA of 5.05 (142.2 IP) on the road this season — tied for 5th highest in MLB.

Marlins pitchers have 78 three-pitch strikeouts this season — 3rd most in MLB.

Marlins pitchers have had second base stolen on them 44 times this season — most in MLB.

Marlins pitchers have 78 three-pitch strikeouts this season — 3rd most in MLB.

Twins Pitching Stats & Trends

Opponents have a miss rate of just 22% against Twins pitchers this season — 3rd lowest in MLB.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 40% against Twins pitchers this season — 4th lowest in MLB.

Twins pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 20% this season — 5th lowest in MLB.

Twins pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 17% in late innings this season — lowest in MLB.

More MLB Reading:

• Home Run Predictions Today
• Best NRFI Bets Today
• Strikeout Props Today
• MLB Starting Pitchers Today

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