• The Marlins are -165 favorites vs the Nationals
• Nationals vs Marlins Over / Under today: 8.5 Runs
• Nationals / Marlins TV Channel: MATV | NATV

The Washington Nationals (+135) visit loanDepot park to take on the Miami Marlins (-165) on May 9, 2026. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10 pm in Miami, FL.

This season, the Nationals are 19-20 against the spread (ATS), while the Marlins are 17-22 ATS.

Nationals vs Marlins Starting Pitchers Today:

• Nationals starting pitcher: Zack Littell 1-4, 7.24 ERA
• Marlins starting pitcher: Janson Junk 2-3, 2.82 ERA

Nationals vs. Marlins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

Nationals vs Marlins Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Marlins will win Saturday‘s MLB game with 57.5% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.

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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Nationals Player Prop Bets Today:

• Jacob Young has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 10 away games (+18.00 Units / 180% ROI)
• Daylen Lile has hit the Singles Over in 19 of his last 25 away games (+12.00 Units / 40% ROI)
• CJ Abrams has hit the Hits Over in 17 of his last 20 away games (+11.25 Units / 31% ROI)
• Jacob Young has hit the Total Bases Over in 18 of his last 25 games (+9.00 Units / 24% ROI)
• Nasim Nunez has hit the Walks Over in 6 of his last 8 away games (+7.90 Units / 99% ROI)

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Marlins Player Prop Best Bets Today:

• Liam Hicks has hit the Home Runs Over in 5 of his last 10 games (+41.00 Units / 410% ROI)
• Jakob Marsee has hit the Hits Under in 15 of his last 25 games at home (+12.30 Units / 46% ROI)
• Kyle Stowers has hit the RBIs Under in 14 of his last 15 games at home (+11.75 Units / 36% ROI)
• Liam Hicks has hit the Total Bases Over in 14 of his last 20 games (+10.75 Units / 42% ROI)
• Liam Hicks has hit the Runs Over in 11 of his last 20 games (+8.55 Units / 43% ROI)

Nationals Best Bets Today:

• The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 27 of their last 50 away games (+20.50 Units / 41% ROI)
• The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 34 of their last 50 games (+16.60 Units / 27% ROI)
• The Washington Nationals have covered the Run Line in 20 of their last 25 away games (+14.30 Units / 44% ROI)
• The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 15 of their last 30 away games (+10.00 Units / 33% ROI)
• The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Over in 27 of their last 45 games (+9.75 Units / 20% ROI)

Marlins Best Bets Today:

• The Miami Marlins have hit the Team Total Under in 12 of their last 16 games (+7.80 Units / 40% ROI)
• The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in 21 of their last 35 games (+7.50 Units / 19% ROI)
• The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 24 of their last 40 games (+7.15 Units / 15% ROI)
• The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 10 of their last 18 games (+4.15 Units / 18% ROI)
• The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 25 of their last 50 games (+2.65 Units / 4% ROI)

Nationals Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Nationals are 23-15 against the Run Line (+4.65 Units / 8.8% ROI).

• 19-20 when betting on the Moneyline for +6.3 Units / 15.91% ROI
• 24-13 when betting on the total runs Over for +9.9 Units / 23.13% ROI
• 13-24 when betting on the total runs Under for -13.45 Units / -31.24% ROI

Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Marlins are 17-22 against the Run Line (-6.6 Units / -13.41% ROI).

• 17-22 when betting on the Moneyline for -4.05 Units / -8.43% ROI
• 22-15 when betting on the total runs Over for +5.25 Units / 12.14% ROI
• 15-22 when betting on the total runs Under for -9.1 Units / -21.39% ROI

Marlins vs Nationals Home Run Prop Bets Today

Marlins vs Nationals Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Marlins vs Nationals Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Nationals Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins

The Nationals are just 0-18 (.000) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .052.

The Nationals are just 7-11 (.389) after a win this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .531.

The Nationals are 13-7 (.650) on the road this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .469.

The Nationals are 8-2 (.800) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2025 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .500.

Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Nationals

The Marlins are just 1-18 (.053) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .215.

The Marlins are just 13-3 (.812) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .894.

The Marlins are just 1-5 (.167) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .304.

The Marlins are just 51-73 (.411) vs the bottom 10 runs allowed teams since the 2024 season Today, they face the Nationals (29th runs allowed).

Nationals Hitting Stats & Trends

The Nationals are batting just .173 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — lowest in MLB.

The Nationals are batting .270 against LHP this season — tied for 4th best in MLB.

Nationals hitters have an OBP of .355 (464 PA’s) against LHP this season — 2nd best in MLB.

Nationals hitters have an OBP of just .260 (181 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB.

Marlins Hitting Stats & Trends

Marlins hitters are slugging just .384 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 2nd lowest in MLB.

Marlins hitters have 9 extra-base hits out of 47 total hits (just 19%) on the first pitch of at-bats this season — lowest in MLB.

Marlins hitters have put 42% of their swings in play on the first pitch of at-bats this season — highest in MLB.

The Marlins are batting just .273 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 3rd lowest in MLB.

Nationals Pitching Stats & Trends

Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 19% this season — 2nd lowest in MLB.

Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 37% with two-strikes this season — 2nd lowest in MLB.

Opponents have a miss rate of just 22% against Nationals pitchers this season — 2nd lowest in MLB.

Nationals pitchers have struck out just 20% of left-handed batters they faced this season — 3rd lowest in MLB.

Marlins Pitching Stats & Trends

Marlins pitchers have walked 11% of batters when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 5th highest in MLB.

Marlins pitchers have an ERA of 5.16 (125.2 IP) on the road this season — 5th highest in MLB.

Marlins pitchers have 71 three-pitch strikeouts this season — tied for 3rd most in MLB.

Marlins pitchers have allowed 32 home runs this season — tied for 4th fewest in MLB.

More MLB Reading:

• Home Run Predictions Today
• Best NRFI Bets Today
• Strikeout Props Today
• MLB Starting Pitchers Today

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