- The Brewers are -200 favorites vs the Padres
- Padres vs Brewers Over / Under today: 7 Runs
- Padres / Brewers TV Channel: FS1 | FOX1
The San Diego Padres (+165) visit American Family Field to take on the Milwaukee Brewers (-200) on October 3, 2026. First pitch is scheduled for 8:30 pm in Milwaukee, WI.
This season, the Padres are 93-71 against the spread (ATS), while the Brewers are 84-78 ATS.
Padres vs Brewers Starting Pitchers Today:
- Padres starting pitcher: Robbie Ray 13-8, 3.62 ERA
- Brewers starting pitcher: Jacob Misiorowski 16-5, 1.80 ERA
Padres vs. Brewers Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Padres | +1.5 -125 | O 7 -115 | +165 |
| Brewers | -1.5 +105 | U 7 -105 | -200 |
Padres vs Brewers Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Brewers will win Saturday‘s MLB game with 71.5% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Padres Player Prop Bets Today:
- Manny Machado has hit the Hits Under in 16 of his last 25 away games (+15.10 Units / 54% ROI)
- Xander Bogaerts has hit the Runs Over in 14 of his last 20 games (+12.55 Units / 60% ROI)
- Xander Bogaerts has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 4 games (+11.60 Units / 290% ROI)
- Dustin Harris has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 15 of his last 20 away games (+10.75 Units / 46% ROI)
- Fernando Tatis Jr. has hit the RBIs Over in 14 of his last 25 games (+10.60 Units / 42% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Brewers players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Brewers Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Brice Turang has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 6 games at home (+20.00 Units / 333% ROI)
- William Contreras has hit the RBIs Over in 15 of his last 25 games (+12.30 Units / 49% ROI)
- David Hamilton has hit the Singles Over in 16 of his last 25 games (+11.95 Units / 48% ROI)
- Jackson Chourio has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 19 of his last 25 games at home (+11.45 Units / 34% ROI)
- Jacob Misiorowski has hit the Walks Allowed Under in 18 of his last 25 games (+10.65 Units / 32% ROI)
Padres Best Bets Today:
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 19 of their last 22 games (+16.65 Units / 50% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the Run Line in 29 of their last 45 games (+16.10 Units / 28% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Team Total Over in 18 of their last 20 games (+15.85 Units / 68% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 18 of their last 22 games (+14.35 Units / 55% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 17 of their last 22 games (+14.15 Units / 46% ROI)
Brewers Best Bets Today:
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 30 of their last 50 games (+16.70 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 34 of their last 50 games (+13.35 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 18 of their last 24 games at home (+12.40 Units / 45% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 31 of their last 50 games (+9.85 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have covered the Run Line in 24 of their last 45 games at home (+9.00 Units / 19% ROI)
Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Padres are 91-70 against the Run Line (+17.2 Units / 8.04% ROI).
- 93-71 when betting on the Moneyline for +16.85 Units / 8.31% ROI
- 78-81 when betting on the total runs Over for -11.25 Units / -6.2% ROI
- 81-78 when betting on the total runs Under for -4.15 Units / -2.31% ROI
Brewers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Brewers are 84-78 against the Run Line (+16.6 Units / 9% ROI).
- 103-59 when betting on the Moneyline for +22.1 Units / 9.19% ROI
- 73-84 when betting on the total runs Over for -18.85 Units / -10.58% ROI
- 84-73 when betting on the total runs Under for +4.05 Units / 2.27% ROI
Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Brewers
The Padres are 66-5 (.930) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB.
The Padres are 39-28 (.582) vs top 10 scoring offenses this season Today, they face the Brewers (second in runs scored).
The Padres are 73-2 (.973) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB.
The Padres are 65-8 (.890) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — 2nd best in MLB.
Brewers Keys to the Game vs. the Padres
The Brewers are 20-17 (.541) when their opponents score in the first inning this season — 2nd best in MLB.
The Brewers are 17-3 (.850) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — best in MLB.
The Brewers are 13-45 (.224) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — best in MLB.
The Brewers are 34-49 (.410) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — 3rd best in MLB.
Padres Hitting Stats & Trends
The Padres are batting .368 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 2nd best in MLB.
Padres hitters have grounded into 124 double plays in 1,078 opportunities (12%) this season — 2nd highest in MLB.
The Padres have answered-back in 37% of innings after an opponent scores in late innings this season — highest in MLB.
Padres hitters are slugging .623 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 2nd best in MLB.
Brewers Hitting Stats & Trends
Brewers hitters have an OBP of .346 (4,374 PA’s) against RHP this season — best in MLB.
The Brewers are batting .403 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — best in MLB.
Brewers hitters have an OBP of .341 (6,299 PA’s) this season — best in MLB.
Brewers hitters have come to the plate with runners in scoring position in 1,866 of their 6,299 plate appearances (30%) this season — highest in MLB.
Padres Pitching Stats & Trends
Padres pitchers have a strikeout rate of 29% in close and late situations this season — 2nd best in MLB.
The Padres have allowed 1.10 runs per game (179/162) in late innings this season — 2nd best in MLB.
Padres pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 14% when going through the lineup the third time in a game this season — lowest in MLB.
The Padres have won 46% of home games in which their opponents scored first this season — 2nd highest in MLB.
Brewers Pitching Stats & Trends
The Brewers have won 49% of games in which their opponents scored first this season — highest in MLB.
The longest HR allowed by the Brewers pitchers this season traveled 523.9 feet — — 2nd longest in MLB
The Brewers have won 61% of home games in which their opponents scored first this season — highest in MLB.
Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% this season — best in MLB.
More MLB Reading:
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