• The Mariners are -160 favorites vs the Padres
• Padres vs Mariners Over / Under today: 7 Runs
• Padres / Mariners TV Channel: FOX

The San Diego Padres (+135) visit T-Mobile Park to take on the Seattle Mariners (-160) on May 16, 2026. First pitch is scheduled for 7:15 pm in Seattle, WA.

This season, the Padres are 26-18 against the spread (ATS), while the Mariners are 17-29 ATS.

Padres vs Mariners Starting Pitchers Today:

• Padres starting pitcher: Walker Buehler 2-2, 5.21 ERA
• Mariners starting pitcher: Logan Gilbert 2-3, 3.76 ERA

Padres vs. Mariners Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

Padres vs Mariners Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Mariners will win Saturday‘s MLB game with 56.1% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.

Bet now on Padres vs Mariners and all games with BetMGM

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Padres Player Prop Bets Today:

• Jackson Merrill has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 20 of his last 25 games (+15.60 Units / 55% ROI)
• Manny Machado has hit the Total Bases Under in 20 of his last 25 away games (+13.50 Units / 36% ROI)
• Jackson Merrill has hit the Singles Under in 19 of his last 25 away games (+13.30 Units / 47% ROI)
• Manny Machado has hit the Hits Under in 16 of his last 25 away games (+12.85 Units / 42% ROI)
• Gavin Sheets has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 5 away games (+10.90 Units / 218% ROI)

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mariners players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Mariners Player Prop Best Bets Today:

• J.P. Crawford has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 4 games at home (+14.00 Units / 350% ROI)
• Cole Young has hit the Runs Under in 14 of his last 15 games (+11.75 Units / 37% ROI)
• Cole Young has hit the Singles Over in 13 of his last 20 games at home (+11.70 Units / 58% ROI)
• Mitch Garver has hit the Walks Over in 8 of his last 10 games (+9.45 Units / 94% ROI)
• Dominic Canzone has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 17 of his last 25 games at home (+8.85 Units / 29% ROI)

Padres Best Bets Today:

• The San Diego Padres have hit the Team Total Under in 18 of their last 25 games (+10.45 Units / 36% ROI)
• The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 13 of their last 17 away games (+8.65 Units / 41% ROI)
• The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 25 of their last 40 games (+7.75 Units / 15% ROI)
• The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in 16 of their last 25 away games (+7.15 Units / 26% ROI)
• The San Diego Padres have covered the Run Line in 27 of their last 50 games (+3.35 Units / 5% ROI)

Mariners Best Bets Today:

• The Seattle Mariners have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 15 of their last 22 games (+6.75 Units / 24% ROI)
• The Seattle Mariners have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 7 of their last 9 games (+5.05 Units / 50% ROI)
• The Seattle Mariners have hit the Team Total Under in 9 of their last 13 games (+4.75 Units / 33% ROI)
• The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Under in 9 of their last 13 games (+4.65 Units / 33% ROI)
• The Seattle Mariners have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 7 of their last 9 games (+4.45 Units / 34% ROI)

Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Padres are 23-20 against the Run Line (+0.45 Units / 0.76% ROI).

• 26-18 when betting on the Moneyline for +5.25 Units / 9.4% ROI
• 18-24 when betting on the total runs Over for -8.25 Units / -17.01% ROI
• 24-18 when betting on the total runs Under for +4.4 Units / 9.09% ROI

Mariners Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Mariners are 17-29 against the Run Line (-8.85 Units / -18.1% ROI).

• 22-24 when betting on the Moneyline for -10.15 Units / -15.71% ROI
• 20-25 when betting on the total runs Over for -7.75 Units / -15.18% ROI
• 25-20 when betting on the total runs Under for +3.2 Units / 6.37% ROI

Mariners vs Padres Home Run Prop Bets Today

Mariners vs Padres Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Mariners vs Padres Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Mariners

The Padres are 4-18 (.182) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .051.

The Padres are 13-8 (.619) on the road this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .459.

The Padres are 20-4 (.833) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .720.

The Padres are 5-15 (.250) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .134.

Mariners Keys to the Game vs. the Padres

The Mariners are just 2-10 (.167) vs bottom 10 scoring offenses this season Today, they face the Padres (20th in runs scored).

The Mariners are 6-80 (.070) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2025 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .045.

The Mariners are 23-15 (.605) when tied entering the 7th inning since the 2025 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Mariners are 10-72 (.122) when trailing entering the 8th inning since the 2025 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .094.

Padres Hitting Stats & Trends

The Padres are batting just .223 this season — lowest in MLB.

Padres hitters are slugging just .316 against LHP this season — 3rd lowest in MLB.

Padres hitters have an OPS of just .601 (914 PA’s) against starting pitchers this season — lowest in MLB.

The Padres are batting just .209 against starting pitchers this season — lowest in MLB.

Mariners Hitting Stats & Trends

The Mariners are batting just .198 against LHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB.

Mariners hitters have put just 31% of their swings in play with runners in scoring position this season — lowest in MLB.

The Mariners are batting just .277 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 3rd lowest in MLB.

The Mariners are just 2-10 (.167) against the run line (-62.0% ROI) vs bottom 10 scoring offenses this season Today, they face the Padres (20th in runs scored).

Padres Pitching Stats & Trends

Opponents have a groundball rate of 48% against Padres pitchers this season — 2nd highest in MLB.

Opponents have a groundball batting average of .307 against Padres pitchers with runners on base this season — highest in MLB.

Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Padres pitchers this season — tied for 4th best in MLB.

Padres pitchers have allowed 36 home runs this season — tied for 2nd fewest in MLB.

Mariners Pitching Stats & Trends

Mariners pitchers have thrown at least two strikes in their first three pitches to 71% of opposing batters this season — highest in MLB.

Mariners pitchers have walked 7% of batters this season — best in MLB.

Mariners pitchers have a first-pitch strike rate of 67% this season — highest in MLB.

Mariners pitchers have walked 6% of batters when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 2nd best in MLB.

More MLB Reading:

• Home Run Predictions Today
• Best NRFI Bets Today
• Strikeout Props Today
• MLB Starting Pitchers Today

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