• The Mariners are -160 favorites vs the Padres
• Padres vs Mariners Over / Under today: 7.5 Runs
• Padres / Mariners TV Channel: PEAC

The San Diego Padres (+135) visit T-Mobile Park to take on the Seattle Mariners (-160) on May 17, 2026. First pitch is scheduled for 7:20 pm in Seattle, WA.

This season, the Padres are 27-18 against the spread (ATS), while the Mariners are 17-30 ATS.

Padres vs Mariners Starting Pitchers Today:

• Padres starting pitcher: Lucas Giolito 0-0, 0.00 ERA
• Mariners starting pitcher: George Kirby 5-2, 2.84 ERA

Padres vs. Mariners Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

Padres vs Mariners Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Mariners will win Sunday‘s MLB game with 55.8% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.

Bet now on Padres vs Mariners and all games with BetMGM

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Padres Player Prop Bets Today:

• Jackson Merrill has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 21 of his last 25 games (+17.60 Units / 61% ROI)
• Gavin Sheets has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 6 away games (+16.80 Units / 280% ROI)
• Jackson Merrill has hit the Hits Under in 18 of his last 25 games (+15.25 Units / 42% ROI)
• Manny Machado has hit the Total Bases Under in 20 of his last 25 away games (+13.80 Units / 38% ROI)
• Jackson Merrill has hit the Singles Under in 19 of his last 25 away games (+13.30 Units / 46% ROI)

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mariners players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Mariners Player Prop Best Bets Today:

• J.P. Crawford has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 5 games at home (+23.50 Units / 470% ROI)
• Cole Young has hit the Runs Under in his last 15 games (+15.00 Units / 48% ROI)
• Cole Young has hit the Walks Under in 21 of his last 25 games (+12.40 Units / 21% ROI)
• Cole Young has hit the Singles Over in 15 of his last 25 games at home (+11.55 Units / 46% ROI)
• George Kirby has hit the Walks Allowed Over in 11 of his last 15 games at home (+9.55 Units / 44% ROI)

Padres Best Bets Today:

• The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 26 of their last 40 games (+10.20 Units / 20% ROI)
• The San Diego Padres have hit the Team Total Under in 17 of their last 25 games (+7.95 Units / 27% ROI)
• The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 13 of their last 18 away games (+7.40 Units / 33% ROI)
• The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in 28 of their last 50 games (+6.25 Units / 11% ROI)
• The San Diego Padres have covered the Run Line in 23 of their last 40 games (+4.60 Units / 9% ROI)

Mariners Best Bets Today:

• The Seattle Mariners have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 16 of their last 23 games (+7.75 Units / 27% ROI)
• The Seattle Mariners have hit the Team Total Over in 18 of their last 30 games at home (+4.25 Units / 12% ROI)
• The Seattle Mariners have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 7 of their last 10 games (+3.85 Units / 34% ROI)
• The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Under in 22 of their last 40 games (+3.65 Units / 8% ROI)
• The Seattle Mariners have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 7 of their last 10 games (+2.65 Units / 18% ROI)

Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Padres are 24-20 against the Run Line (+1.45 Units / 2.39% ROI).

• 27-18 when betting on the Moneyline for +6.7 Units / 11.79% ROI
• 19-24 when betting on the total runs Over for -7.25 Units / -14.6% ROI
• 24-19 when betting on the total runs Under for +3.35 Units / 6.77% ROI

Mariners Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Mariners are 17-30 against the Run Line (-9.85 Units / -19.74% ROI).

• 22-25 when betting on the Moneyline for -11.85 Units / -17.87% ROI
• 21-25 when betting on the total runs Over for -6.75 Units / -12.93% ROI
• 25-21 when betting on the total runs Under for +2.15 Units / 4.2% ROI

Mariners vs Padres Home Run Prop Bets Today

Mariners vs Padres Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Mariners vs Padres Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Mariners

The Padres are 4-18 (.182) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .050.

The Padres are 14-5 (.737) vs bottom 10 scoring offenses this season Today, they face the Mariners (22nd in runs scored).

The Padres are 5-15 (.250) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .136.

The Padres are 9-7 (.562) vs the top 10 runs allowed teams this season Today, they face Mariners (sixth in runs allowed).

Mariners Keys to the Game vs. the Padres

The Mariners are just 2-11 (.154) vs bottom 10 scoring offenses this season Today, they face the Padres (24th in runs scored).

The Mariners are just 6-21 (.222) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — tied for 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .280.

The Mariners are 10-73 (.120) when trailing entering the 8th inning since the 2025 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .094.

The Mariners are 45-33 (.577) vs the top 10 runs allowed teams since the 2025 season Today, they face Padres (11th in runs allowed).

Padres Hitting Stats & Trends

Padres hitters are slugging just .316 against LHP this season — 3rd lowest in MLB.

Padres hitters have an OBP of just .294 (1,650 PA’s) this season — 3rd lowest in MLB.

Padres hitters are slugging just .167 on breaking pitches against LHP this season — tied for lowest in MLB.

Padres hitters have an OPS of just .661 (1,650 PA’s) this season — 2nd lowest in MLB.

Mariners Hitting Stats & Trends

The Mariners are batting just .195 against LHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB.

Mariners hitters have an OBP of just .278 (498 PA’s) against LHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB.

The Mariners are just 2-11 (.154) against the run line (-64.9% ROI) vs bottom 10 scoring offenses this season Today, they face the Padres (24th in runs scored).

Mariners hitters have an OBP of .337 (1,287 PA’s) against RHP this season — 5th best in MLB.

Padres Pitching Stats & Trends

Opponents have a groundball rate of 47% against Padres pitchers this season — 2nd highest in MLB.

Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Padres pitchers this season — 5th best in MLB.

The longest HR allowed by the Padres pitchers this season traveled 433.8 feet — — 2nd shortest in MLB

Padres pitchers have a first-pitch strike rate of 63% this season — 5th highest in MLB.

Mariners Pitching Stats & Trends

Mariners pitchers have walked 7% of batters this season — best in MLB.

Mariners pitchers have a first-pitch strike rate of 67% this season — highest in MLB.

Mariners pitchers have walked 6% of batters when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 2nd best in MLB.

Mariners pitchers have thrown at least two strikes in their first three pitches to 70% of opposing batters this season — highest in MLB.

More MLB Reading:

• Home Run Predictions Today
• Best NRFI Bets Today
• Strikeout Props Today
• MLB Starting Pitchers Today

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