• The Phillies are -125 favorites vs the Marlins
• Phillies vs Marlins Over / Under today: 8 Runs
• Phillies / Marlins TV Channel: MATV | NSPA | WBFS

The Philadelphia Phillies (-125) visit loanDepot park to take on the Miami Marlins (+105) on May 1, 2026. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10 pm in Miami, FL.

This season, the Phillies are 12-19 against the spread (ATS), while the Marlins are 14-17 ATS.

Phillies vs Marlins Starting Pitchers Today:

• Phillies starting pitcher: Zack Wheeler 0-0, 3.60 ERA
• Marlins starting pitcher: Eury Perez 2-2, 4.65 ERA

Phillies vs. Marlins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

Phillies vs Marlins Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Phillies will win Friday‘s MLB game with 54.0% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.

Bet now on Phillies vs Marlins and all games with BetMGM

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Phillies Player Prop Bets Today:

• Alec Bohm has hit the Runs Under in 21 of his last 25 games (+13.55 Units / 29% ROI)
• Alec Bohm has hit the Hits Under in 17 of his last 25 games (+12.80 Units / 38% ROI)
• Alec Bohm has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 19 of his last 25 games (+12.30 Units / 40% ROI)
• Alec Bohm has hit the Total Bases Under in 19 of his last 25 games (+11.05 Units / 29% ROI)
• Trea Turner has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 6 games (+10.00 Units / 167% ROI)

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Marlins Player Prop Best Bets Today:

• Esteury Ruiz has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 5 games (+18.00 Units / 360% ROI)
• Xavier Edwards has hit the Walks Over in 11 of his last 15 games (+14.90 Units / 99% ROI)
• Otto Lopez has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 19 of his last 25 games (+11.90 Units / 38% ROI)
• Graham Pauley has hit the Singles Under in 20 of his last 25 games (+10.90 Units / 22% ROI)
• Jakob Marsee has hit the Hits Under in 14 of his last 25 games at home (+10.10 Units / 38% ROI)

Phillies Best Bets Today:

• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Under in 30 of their last 45 games (+12.60 Units / 24% ROI)
• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 30 of their last 50 away games (+7.10 Units / 12% ROI)
• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 4 of their last 5 games (+3.15 Units / 49% ROI)
• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Over in 4 of their last 6 away games (+2.90 Units / 44% ROI)
• The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 4 of their last 6 games (+1.85 Units / 26% ROI)

Marlins Best Bets Today:

• The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 28 of their last 50 games (+10.25 Units / 17% ROI)
• The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 8 of their last 10 games (+10.05 Units / 85% ROI)
• The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in 29 of their last 50 games (+8.05 Units / 15% ROI)
• The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 27 of their last 45 games (+7.50 Units / 14% ROI)
• The Miami Marlins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 8 of their last 10 games (+6.40 Units / 55% ROI)

Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Phillies are 6-25 against the Run Line (-21.35 Units / -59.64% ROI).

• 12-19 when betting on the Moneyline for -12.45 Units / -27.79% ROI
• 15-14 when betting on the total runs Over for -0.25 Units / -0.73% ROI
• 14-15 when betting on the total runs Under for -2.25 Units / -6.62% ROI

Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Marlins are 14-17 against the Run Line (-4.8 Units / -12.2% ROI).

• 15-16 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.25 Units / 3.28% ROI
• 18-11 when betting on the total runs Over for +5.8 Units / 16.91% ROI
• 11-18 when betting on the total runs Under for -8.7 Units / -25.66% ROI

Marlins vs Phillies Home Run Prop Bets Today

Marlins vs Phillies Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Marlins vs Phillies Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins

The Phillies are 19-63 (.232) when trailing entering the 7th inning since the 2025 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .128.

The Phillies are just 0-9 (.000) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .302.

The Phillies are 89-25 (.781) when allowing 4 or fewer runs since the 2025 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .716.

The Phillies are just 12-19 (.387) this season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.

Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies

The Marlins are just 1-14 (.067) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .220.

The Marlins are just 1-5 (.167) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .302.

The Marlins are 14-2 (.875) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .730.

The Marlins are just 11-3 (.786) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .888.

Phillies Hitting Stats & Trends

The Phillies are batting just .182 against LHP this season — lowest in MLB.

Phillies hitters are slugging just .299 against LHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB.

The Phillies are just 1-10 (.091) against the run line (-83.6% ROI) after a win this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .508.

Phillies hitters have an OPS of just .573 (399 PA’s) against LHP this season — lowest in MLB.

Marlins Hitting Stats & Trends

Marlins hitters are slugging just .313 against LHP this season — 3rd lowest in MLB.

Marlins hitters have put 40% of their swings in play on the first pitch of at-bats since the 2025 season — tied for highest in MLB.

Marlins hitters have put 42% of their swings in play on the first pitch of at-bats this season — highest in MLB.

Marlins hitters have struck out in just 21% of their PA’s against LHP since the 2025 season — 5th best in MLB.

Phillies Pitching Stats & Trends

Phillies pitchers have walked 7% of batters since the 2025 season — tied for 2nd best in MLB.

Phillies pitchers have walked 8% of batters this season — 3rd best in MLB.

Phillies pitchers have induced opposing hitters to ground into just 14 double plays in 271 opportunities (5%) this season — lowest in MLB.

Phillies pitchers have a strikeout rate of 46% with two-strikes since the 2025 season — tied for best in MLB.

Marlins Pitching Stats & Trends

Marlins pitchers have walked 12% of batters when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 5th highest in MLB.

Marlins pitchers had an ERA of 5.37 (751.0 IP) at home in the 2024 season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.98.

Marlins pitchers have walked 14% of batters when facing the leadoff batter in the inning over the past seven days (6 games) — 3rd highest in MLB.

The Marlins allowed 6.04 runs per game (489/81) at home in the 2024 season — highest in MLB.

More MLB Reading:

• Home Run Predictions Today
• Best NRFI Bets Today
• Strikeout Props Today
• MLB Starting Pitchers Today

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