The Cleveland Guardians have a 2-1 series lead over the Tampa Bay Rays entering Game 4 of the ALCS. First pitch is set for 8 p.m. ET on Friday at Progressive Field in Cleveland on TBS.
Get my Rays vs. Guardians prediction based on the latest MLB odds:
Rays vs. Guardians Prediction for Game 4 ALCS
- Under 6.5 or pass
As of this writing, I’m only comfortable predicting the under for the full-game total in Game 4 of the ALCS. Even then, I’d rather wait to see if this game actually takes place tonight.
The weather in Cleveland is nasty on Friday, with mid-50s temperatures and 20-mph winds blowing in toward hitters. Rain is likely, so tonight’s game could be delayed or even postponed. That is life when you play baseball in October.
Fortunately, MLB plans for this with off days. Right now, Sunday is an off day. So, these two teams could either play a doubleheader on Saturday or have one game on Sunday.
That matters because it could change each team’s pitching plan. Nick Martinez is currently slated to start Game 4 for Tampa Bay, but if the game moves to Saturday, Drew Rasmussen, the Rays’ ace, would be fully rested.
Meanwhile, the Guardians haven’t announced a starter for Game 4. They could use Daniel Espino as an opener in a bullpen game or have Foster Griffin on full rest tomorrow.
Either way, I like the under because Friday’s weather won’t favor offense, and Saturday may offer better pitching.
The ball is unlikely to leave the yard tonight, with Ballpark Pal’s model projecting a 28% decrease in home run potential due to the conditions. The under has hit in three of the four games played in Cleveland this postseason, averaging 4.25 total runs per game.
Prediction: Under 6.5 or pass
Rays vs. Guardians Odds: ALCS, Game 4
- Rays moneyline: -115
- Guardians moneyline: -105
- Total: 6.5
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