• The Guardians are -135 favorites vs the Red Sox
• Red Sox vs Guardians Over / Under today: 6.5 Runs
• Red Sox / Guardians TV Channel: GDTV | NESN

The Boston Red Sox (+110) visit Progressive Field to take on the Cleveland Guardians (-135) on May 30, 2026. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10 pm in Cleveland, OH.

This season, the Red Sox are 23-33 against the spread (ATS), while the Guardians are 29-30 ATS.

Red Sox vs Guardians Starting Pitchers Today:

• Red Sox starting pitcher: Sonny Gray 5-1, 3.33 ERA
• Guardians starting pitcher: Parker Messick 6-1, 2.28 ERA

Red Sox vs. Guardians Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

Red Sox vs Guardians Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Guardians will win Saturday‘s MLB game with 55.9% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.

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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Red Sox Player Prop Bets Today:

• Jarren Duran has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 9 games (+18.00 Units / 200% ROI)
• Willson Contreras has hit the Total Bases Over in 12 of his last 15 away games (+10.50 Units / 58% ROI)
• Willson Contreras has hit the Hits Over in his last 10 games (+10.00 Units / 49% ROI)
• Jarren Duran has hit the Singles Under in 18 of his last 25 away games (+9.55 Units / 30% ROI)
• Willson Contreras has hit the Walks Under in 13 of his last 15 games (+8.60 Units / 28% ROI)

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Guardians Player Prop Best Bets Today:

• Angel Martinez has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 9 games at home (+23.90 Units / 266% ROI)
• Travis Bazzana has hit the Hits Over in 16 of his last 20 games (+10.25 Units / 31% ROI)
• Patrick Bailey has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 17 of his last 25 games (+9.95 Units / 34% ROI)
• Patrick Bailey has hit the Runs Under in his last 9 games at home (+9.00 Units / 43% ROI)
• Patrick Bailey has hit the Singles Under in 19 of his last 25 games (+8.75 Units / 20% ROI)

Red Sox Best Bets Today:

• The Boston Red Sox have hit the Team Total Under in 26 of their last 40 games (+10.45 Units / 22% ROI)
• The Boston Red Sox have covered the Run Line in 13 of their last 21 away games (+7.55 Units / 26% ROI)
• The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 8 of their last 9 games (+7.05 Units / 59% ROI)
• The Boston Red Sox have hit the Moneyline in 10 of their last 15 away games (+5.45 Units / 34% ROI)
• The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 22 of their last 40 games (+4.25 Units / 10% ROI)

Guardians Best Bets Today:

• The Cleveland Guardians have covered the Run Line in 27 of their last 50 games at home (+9.65 Units / 17% ROI)
• The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 32 of their last 50 games at home (+9.50 Units / 14% ROI)
• The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Team Total Under in 9 of their last 10 games (+8.10 Units / 73% ROI)
• The Cleveland Guardians have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 26 of their last 45 games (+6.55 Units / 13% ROI)
• The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 28 of their last 50 games at home (+5.90 Units / 11% ROI)

Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Red Sox are 23-31 against the Run Line (-8.25 Units / -11.84% ROI).

• 23-33 when betting on the Moneyline for -17.55 Units / -25.34% ROI
• 25-29 when betting on the total runs Over for -7.05 Units / -11.42% ROI
• 29-25 when betting on the total runs Under for +1.35 Units / 2.19% ROI

Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Guardians are 29-30 against the Run Line (+0.15 Units / 0.21% ROI).

• 34-25 when betting on the Moneyline for +8.4 Units / 11.68% ROI
• 28-31 when betting on the total runs Over for -5.7 Units / -8.82% ROI
• 31-28 when betting on the total runs Under for +0.1 Units / 0.15% ROI

Guardians vs Red Sox Home Run Prop Bets Today

Guardians vs Red Sox Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Guardians vs Red Sox Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Guardians

The Red Sox are just 2-18 (.100) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .210.

The Red Sox are just 2-20 (.091) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .248.

The Red Sox are just 0-30 (.000) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .054.

The Red Sox are just 5-18 (.217) when their opponents score in the first inning this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .355.

Guardians Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox

The Guardians are 24-1 (.960) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .860.

The Guardians are 9-2 (.818) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs this season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .706.

The Guardians are just 1-20 (.048) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .140.

The Guardians are 12-1 (.923) when they’ve had 10 or more hits this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .752.

Red Sox Hitting Stats & Trends

Red Sox hitters are slugging just .362 against RHP this season — 3rd lowest in MLB.

The Red Sox are batting .184 with two-strikes this season — tied for best in MLB.

Red Sox hitters have an OPS of just .659 (1,019 PA’s) at home this season — 5th lowest in MLB.

Red Sox hitters are slugging .287 with two-strikes this season — tied for 3rd best in MLB.

Guardians Hitting Stats & Trends

Guardians hitters have a groundball batting average of just .200 this season — lowest in MLB.

The Guardians are hitting just .173 against pitchers who have thrown at least 80 pitches in the game this season — 2nd lowest in MLB.

Guardians hitters have struck out in just 19% of their PA’s against LHP this season — 4th best in MLB.

Guardians hitters have missed on just 23% of swings this season — 2nd best in MLB.

Red Sox Pitching Stats & Trends

Red Sox pitchers have walked 5% of batters when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — best in MLB.

The Red Sox have allowed 0.91 runs per game (51/56) in late innings this season — 2nd best in MLB.

Red Sox pitchers have a strikeout rate of 28% in close and late situations this season — 2nd best in MLB.

Red Sox pitchers have allowed three-ball counts to 19% of batters they faced (398/2,093 PA’s) this season — 4th lowest in MLB.

Guardians Pitching Stats & Trends

Guardians pitchers have a strikeout rate of 35% in close and late situations this season — best in MLB.

Guardians pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% with runners in scoring position this season — 2nd best in MLB.

Guardians pitchers have a strikeout rate of 25% this season — 2nd best in MLB.

Guardians pitchers have struck out 27% of left-handed batters they faced this season — best in MLB.

More MLB Reading:

• Home Run Predictions Today
• Best NRFI Bets Today
• Strikeout Props Today
• MLB Starting Pitchers Today

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