The Cincinnati Reds have a win total of 81.5 entering the 2026 season, based on the latest MLB win totals market at the BetMGM online sportsbook.
Reds Over/Under Wins 2026
- Over 80.5 wins: -110
- Under 80.5 wins: -110
Reds Win Total Prediction 2026
- Under 82.5 wins (Pick made Feb. 19)
Per the current MLB betting lines, I like the under on the Reds’ win total for the 2026 season.
In Terry Francona’s first season at the helm, the Reds won 83 games and notched their first postseason berth since 2020. It was a step in the right direction for a young team, but improvement isn’t always linear.
I wouldn’t be surprised if Cincinnati took a step back in 2026.
Projections seem to agree with me. PECOTA projects 78.9 wins for the Reds this year. ATC, a composite projection system at FanGraphs, has Cincinnati winning 79.3 games.
On paper, the Reds look better than they were last year. They signed Eugenio Suarez to provide some power in the middle of their lineup. Elly De La Cruz is healthy. Hard-throwing righty Chase Burns will get a full season after making eight starts last year.
There are a lot of ways that things could work for Cincinnati, so I don’t blame anyone for being more interested in its over. But I see more paths to the regression.
For one, the Reds’ rotation is unlikely to produce the second-most fWAR again. The Philadelphia Phillies are the only team to have a rotation rank in the top five in fWAR in 2025 after doing so in 2024. It’s difficult to bank on pitchers being consistent on a yearly basis.
If the staff regresses, it puts a lot of pressure on a lineup that ranked 24th in wRC+. The Reds haven’t ranked better than 17th in that metric since 2021.
The National League Central sent three teams to the postseason last year. Prior to that, the division hadn’t had multiple playoff teams since 2021.
The division race could feature multiple disappointed teams in 2026, including the Reds.
Reds Win Total History
(Data from Sports Odds History)
| Year | Win Total | Wins | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 79.5 | 83 | Over |
| 2024 | 82.5 | 77 | Under |
| 2023 | 65.5 | 82 | Over |
| 2022 | 73.5 | 62 | Under |
| 2021 | 81.5 | 83 | Over |
| 2020 | 32.5 | 31 | Under |
| 2019 | 78.5 | 75 | Under |
| 2018 | 74 | 67 | Under |
| 2017 | 69.5 | 68 | Under |
| 2016 | 70.5 | 68 | Under |
| 2015 | 77.5 | 64 | Under |
| 2014 | 84.5 | 76 | Under |
| 2013 | 91 | 90 | Under |
| 2012 | 87.5 | 97 | Over |
| 2011 | 85.5 | 79 | Under |
| 2010 | 79 | 91 | Over |
| 2009 | 79.5 | 78 | Under |
| 2008 | 77.5 | 74 | Under |
| 2007 | 76.5 | 72 | Under |
| 2006 | 74 | 80 | Over |
| 2005 | 77 | 73 | Under |
| 2004 | 72.5 | 76 | Over |
| 2003 | 78.5 | 69 | Under |
| 2002 | 78.5 | 78 | Under |
| 2001 | 84.5 | 66 | Under |
| 2000 | 92.5 | 85 | Under |
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