- The Royals are -125 favorites vs the Marlins
- Royals vs Marlins Over / Under today: 8.5 Runs
- Royals / Marlins TV Channel: FDFL | FDKC | MLBN
The Kansas City Royals (-125) visit loanDepot park to take on the Miami Marlins (+105) on Saturday, July 19, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10pm EDT in Miami, FL, FL.
This season, the Royals are 47-51 against the spread (ATS), while the Marlins are 57-39 ATS.
Royals vs Marlins Starting Pitchers Today:
- Royals starting pitcher: Michael Wacha 4-9, 3.75 ERA
- Marlins starting pitcher: Cal Quantrill 3-8, 5.60 ERA
Royals vs. Marlins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Royals | -1.5 +135 | O 8.5 -105 | -125 |
| Marlins | +1.5 -160 | U 8.5 -115 | +105 |
Royals vs Marlins Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Royals will win Saturday‘s MLB game with 51.9% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Royals players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Royals Player Prop Bets Today:
- Jac Caglianone has hit the Hits Under in 15 of his last 20 games (+16.80 Units / 84% ROI)
- Jac Caglianone has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 21 of his last 25 games (+16.20 Units / 48% ROI)
- Nick Loftin has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 6 games (+16.00 Units / 267% ROI)
- Jac Caglianone has hit the Total Bases Under in 17 of his last 20 games (+15.85 Units / 56% ROI)
- Jac Caglianone has hit the Singles Under in 21 of his last 25 games (+15.80 Units / 45% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Marlins Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Kyle Stowers has hit the Home Runs Over in 5 of his last 8 games at home (+20.10 Units / 251% ROI)
- Agustin Ramirez has hit the Hits Under in 13 of his last 20 games at home (+13.95 Units / 60% ROI)
- Kyle Stowers has hit the Runs Over in 14 of his last 20 games (+13.65 Units / 68% ROI)
- Agustin Ramirez has hit the Total Bases Under in 16 of his last 20 games at home (+9.80 Units / 31% ROI)
- Agustin Ramirez has hit the Singles Under in 12 of his last 15 games (+8.60 Units / 50% ROI)
Royals Best Bets Today:
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the Team Total Under in 68 of their last 98 games (+36.40 Units / 32% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the Game Total Under in 56 of their last 90 games (+19.70 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have covered the Run Line in 28 of their last 36 away games (+18.10 Units / 33% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 58 of their last 97 games (+15.40 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 20 of their last 35 away games (+13.20 Units / 34% ROI)
Marlins Best Bets Today:
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 21 of their last 32 games (+16.35 Units / 50% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have covered the Run Line in 49 of their last 77 games (+14.40 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Under in 37 of their last 59 games (+13.90 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 34 of their last 56 games (+9.05 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 28 of their last 48 games at home (+8.15 Units / 15% ROI)
Royals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Royals are 50-48 against the Run Line (-10.5 Units / -7.53% ROI).
- 47-51 when betting on the Moneyline for -4.7 Units / -3.98% ROI
- 38-59 when betting on the total runs Over for -26.17 Units / -24.44% ROI
- 59-38 when betting on the total runs Under for +17.2 Units / 15.85% ROI
Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Marlins are 57-39 against the Run Line (+9.7 Units / 7.58% ROI).
- 45-51 when betting on the Moneyline for +7.05 Units / 6.96% ROI
- 46-49 when betting on the total runs Over for -8.9 Units / -8.34% ROI
- 49-46 when betting on the total runs Under for -1.5 Units / -1.44% ROI
Royals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Michael Wacha has thrown his breaking pitches for a strike just 51% (394/778) of the time since last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 102 total IP; League Avg: 62% — 0 Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .351 (13-for-37) against Michael Wacha’s low fastballs this season — 6th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .267 — 11th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .292 (19-for-65) against Michael Wacha’s elevated fastball this season — 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .212 — sixth Percentile.
34 of Michael Wacha’s 84 strikeouts (41%) have come on changeups this season — 5th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 13% — 94th Percentile.
Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a line drive rate of 41% (26/63) against Cal Quantrill with runners in scoring position this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 38 total IP; League Avg: 24% — first Percentile.
Cal Quantrill has allowed an OPS of 1.063 (183 PA’s) against right-handed batters this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 38 total IP; League Avg: .694 — 0 Percentile.
Right-handed batters are hitting .371 (63-for-170) against Cal Quantrill this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 38 total IP; League Avg: .244 — 0 Percentile.
Opponents batting at the bottom of the order are hitting .365 (35-for-96) against Cal Quantrill this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 38 total IP; League Avg: .229 — first Percentile.
Royals Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins
The Royals are just 2-40 (.048) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .093.
The Royals were just 4-50 (.074) when they allowed 5 or more runs in the 2024 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .196.
The Royals are just 11-78 (.124) when allowing 5 or more runs since last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .197.
The Royals are just 12-51 (.190) when allowing 2 or more home runs since last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .288.
Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Royals
The Marlins are just 51-78 (.395) at home since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .531.
The Marlins were just 39-14 (.736) when leading entering the 7th inning in the 2024 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .856.
The Marlins were just 7-42 (.143) when allowing 2 or more home runs in the 2024 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .289.
The Marlins are just 107-151 (.415) since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Royals Hitting Stats & Trends
Royals hitters have drawn walks in 6% of their PA’s against LHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Royals hitters have drawn walks in 7% of their PA’s with runners in scoring position this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 10%.
Royals hitters are slugging .637 against LHP this month (7 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: .406.
Royals hitters have drawn walks in 7% of their PA’s against RHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Marlins Hitting Stats & Trends
Marlins hitters are slugging just .349 against LHP since last season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .393.
Marlins hitters have an OPS of just .404 (124 PA’s) against LHP this month (10 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .708.
The Marlins have a winning percentage of just 40% at home since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 53%.
Marlins hitters have an OBP of just .291 (3,000 PA’s) against LHP since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .312.
Royals Pitching Stats & Trends
The longest HR allowed by the Royals pitchers in the 2024 season traveled 519.4 feet — — longest in MLB; League Avg: 470.4
Royals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 20% in close and late situations since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
Royals pitchers have an ERA of 3.51 (1114.2 IP) on the road since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 4.20.
Royals pitchers have an ERA of 3.58 (415.1 IP) on the road this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 4.25.
Marlins Pitching Stats & Trends
Marlins pitchers have walked 5% of batters this month (14 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Marlins pitchers had an ERA of 5.37 (751.0 IP) at home in the 2024 season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.98.
Marlins pitchers have walked 4% of batters over the past seven days (3 games) — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
Marlins pitchers have walked 5% of batters over the last 14 days — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
More MLB Reading:
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