• The Padres are -155 favorites vs the Twins
• Twins vs Padres Over / Under today: 8 Runs
• Twins / Padres TV Channel: TWTV | PDTV

The Minnesota Twins (+125) visit Petco Park to take on the San Diego Padres (-155) on August 21, 2026. First pitch is scheduled for 9:40 pm in San Diego, CA.

This season, the Twins are 63-65 against the spread (ATS), while the Padres are 69-57 ATS.

Twins vs Padres Starting Pitchers Today:

• Twins starting pitcher: Connor Prielipp 3-6, 5.36 ERA
• Padres starting pitcher: Randy Vasquez 8-6, 4.31 ERA

Twins vs. Padres Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

Twins vs Padres Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Twins will win Friday‘s MLB game with 51.8% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.

Bet now on Twins vs Padres and all games with BetMGM

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Twins players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Twins Player Prop Bets Today:

• Luke Keaschall has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 19 of his last 25 away games (+15.65 Units / 57% ROI)
• Ryan Jeffers has hit the Hits Over in 21 of his last 25 games (+14.85 Units / 30% ROI)
• Brooks Lee has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 10 away games (+14.10 Units / 141% ROI)
• Luke Keaschall has hit the Total Bases Over in 19 of his last 25 away games (+12.80 Units / 34% ROI)
• Luke Keaschall has hit the Singles Over in 18 of his last 25 away games (+11.20 Units / 42% ROI)

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Padres Player Prop Best Bets Today:

• Jackson Merrill has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 7 games at home (+17.60 Units / 251% ROI)
• Fernando Tatis Jr. has hit the Singles Under in 19 of his last 25 games (+13.65 Units / 51% ROI)
• Luis Campusano has hit the Runs Under in 18 of his last 20 games (+13.55 Units / 33% ROI)
• Jackson Merrill has hit the Hits Over in 17 of his last 20 games at home (+11.70 Units / 29% ROI)
• Jackson Merrill has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 16 of his last 20 games at home (+11.50 Units / 49% ROI)

Twins Best Bets Today:

• The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Over in 30 of their last 50 away games (+12.15 Units / 22% ROI)
• The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 28 of their last 45 away games (+9.10 Units / 16% ROI)
• The Minnesota Twins have covered the Run Line in 20 of their last 30 away games (+8.45 Units / 19% ROI)
• The Minnesota Twins have hit the Team Total Over in 26 of their last 45 away games (+5.20 Units / 10% ROI)
• The Minnesota Twins have hit the Moneyline in 16 of their last 30 away games (+5.00 Units / 16% ROI)

Padres Best Bets Today:

• The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 21 of their last 30 games at home (+10.90 Units / 29% ROI)
• The San Diego Padres have covered the Run Line in 24 of their last 40 games (+10.15 Units / 20% ROI)
• The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in 27 of their last 45 games at home (+8.40 Units / 17% ROI)
• The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 16 of their last 24 games at home (+8.10 Units / 30% ROI)
• The San Diego Padres have hit the Team Total Under in 30 of their last 50 games at home (+8.00 Units / 13% ROI)

Twins Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Twins are 70-57 against the Run Line (-0.85 Units / -0.47% ROI).

• 63-65 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.25 Units / -0.17% ROI
• 67-53 when betting on the total runs Over for +7.95 Units / 5.62% ROI
• 53-67 when betting on the total runs Under for -20.85 Units / -14.88% ROI

Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Padres are 69-57 against the Run Line (+7 Units / 4.12% ROI).

• 68-60 when betting on the Moneyline for +4.05 Units / 2.68% ROI
• 56-69 when betting on the total runs Over for -19.95 Units / -14.11% ROI
• 69-56 when betting on the total runs Under for +7.75 Units / 5.52% ROI

Padres vs Twins Home Run Prop Bets Today

Padres vs Twins Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Padres vs Twins Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Twins Keys to the Game vs. the Padres

The Twins are just 24-18 (.571) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs this season — 3rd lowest in MLB.

The Twins are just 11-8 (.579) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH this season — lowest in MLB.

The Twins are just 19-24 (.442) vs the bottom 10 runs allowed teams this season Today, they face the Padres (ninth fewest runs allowed).

The Twins are just 10-30 (.250) when tied entering the 7th inning since the 2025 season — lowest in MLB.

Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Twins

The Padres are 22-16 (.579) vs the top 10 runs allowed teams this season Today, they face Twins (26th fewest runs allowed).

The Padres are 55-0 (1.000) when leading entering the 9th inning this season — tied for best in MLB.

The Padres are 12-5 (.706) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 3rd best in MLB.

The Padres are 10-51 (.164) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 4th best in MLB.

Twins Hitting Stats & Trends

The Twins are just 24-18 (.571) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs this season — 3rd lowest in MLB.

Games involving the Twins went OVER in 60% of their games (20.3% ROI) on the road this season — highest in MLB.

The Twins are just 11-8 (.579) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH this season — lowest in MLB.

Games involving the Twins went OVER in 58% of their games (17.6% ROI) after a loss this season — highest in MLB.

Padres Hitting Stats & Trends

The Padres are 26-12 (.684) against the run line (14.4% ROI) vs the top 10 runs allowed teams this season Today, they face Twins (26th fewest runs allowed).

The Padres are 34-29 (.540) against the run line (-1.1% ROI) at home this season — 5th best in MLB.

The Padres are 22-16 (.579) vs the top 10 runs allowed teams this season Today, they face Twins (26th fewest runs allowed).

The Padres are 22-16 (16.4% ROI) vs the top 10 runs allowed teams this season Today, they face Twins (26th fewest runs allowed).

Twins Pitching Stats & Trends

Twins pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 8% when going through the lineup the third time in a game this month (17 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 20%.

Twins pitchers have walked 2 of 45 batters (4%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning over the past seven days (5 games) — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.

Twins pitchers walked 433 of 6,078 batters (7%) in the 2024 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Twins pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 9% when going through the lineup the third time in a game over the last 14 days (12 games) — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 20%.

Padres Pitching Stats & Trends

Opponents have a groundball rate of 47% against Padres pitchers over the last 14 days (12 games) — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.

Padres pitchers have an ERA of 2.78 (107.0 IP) over the last 14 days (12 games) — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 4.07.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Padres pitchers this month (18 games) — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.

Padres pitchers have a strikeout rate of 31% with runners in scoring position over the last 14 days (12 games) — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 21%.

More MLB Reading:

• Home Run Predictions Today
• Best NRFI Bets Today
• Strikeout Props Today
• MLB Starting Pitchers Today

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