MLS Predictions, Odds: San Jose Earthquakes vs. Austin FC

min read
San Jose Earthquakes forward Preston Judd against the Seattle Sounders during the first half of an MLS soccer match Saturday, March 23, 2024, in San Jose, Calif.
(AP Photo/Godofredo A. Vásquez)
Nick Hennion @nickhennion May 24, 2024, 5:24 PM
  • San Jose Earthquakes is a -0.5-goal favorite against Austin FC.
  • Austin won 4-3 in the previous meeting, ending a streak of four straight draws.
  • Why bettors should expect goals to flow on Saturday at PayPal Park.

On Saturday at PayPal Park, the San Jose Earthquakes will attempt to stop their losing run against Austin FC. 

San Jose has lost three games on the bounce, including a midweek U.S. Open Cup match against Sacramento Republic F.C. 

Meanwhile, Austin currently sits third in the Western Conference and has dropped all three points only once in their last five. When these sides last met, Austin earned a 4-3 win. 

Here’s a look at the MLS odds and my prediction for Saturday’s late kickoff. 

MLS Odds – San Jose Earthquakes vs. Austin FC

  • San Jose Earthquakes Moneyline: -130
  • Austin FC Moneyline: +290
  • Draw Moneyline: +290
  • Over/Under: 3.5 Goals (+135/-190)

MLS Predictions – San Jose Earthquakes vs. Austin FC

Same Game Parlay: Both Teams to Score & Over 2.5 Goals (-135)

It’s difficult to foresee a scenario where these sides play a low-event match, given the previous meeting featured loads of chances at both ends. 

In addition to combining for seven goals, San Jose and Austin generated 5.26 post-shot expected goals with both teams clearing two post-shot expected goals. 

The match featured six big scoring chances and 14 shots on target, eight of which came from San Jose. To date, that’s their highest shots on target number for the season. 

That represents a recurring theme for the way these teams like to play their matches against one another. 

Both teams have scored in five straight meetings, with four of those five games clearing 3.5 goals. 

Plus, this is an Austin side that enters Saturday’s fixture as a major negative regression candidate defensively. 

Entering the match, they have conceded only 17 goals off 22.4 expected and 15 non-penalty goals off 20.8 npxGA, per 

Given they surrendered 2.7 expected goals to San Jose at home, I worry about the Austin defense on Saturday. 

That said, San Jose faces a short week after playing a road U.S. Open Cup match on Tuesday. 

Although they’ve faced the most penalty kicks in MLS to date, this remains a San Jose defense that’s 11th-worst in MLS in non-penalty expected goals against per 90 minutes. 

Even if San Jose contributes the lion’s share of the scoring, I’ll be surprised if they keep Austin off the scoresheet. 

As a result, I’ll take Austin to find the net and help send this game over 2.5 goals on Saturday. 

San Jose Earthquakes Form 

May 21 at Sacramento Republic: 3-4, L (U.S. Open Cup)

May 18 vs. Orlando: 0-1, L

May 15 at Portland: 2-4, L

May 11 at Colorado Rapids: 3-2, W

May 7 vs. Oakland Roots SC: 1-0, W (U.S. Open Cup)

Austin FC Form

May 18 vs. Sporting KC: 3-2, W

May 15 vs. Houston: 1-0, W

May 11 at FC Dallas: 1-2, L

May 4 at Vancouver: 0-0, D

April 27 vs. LA Galaxy: 2-0, W

San Jose Earthquakes vs. Austin FC Head-to-Head Record

April 6: Austin FC, 4-3 (Q2 Stadium)

Oct. 21, 2023: Draw, 1-1 (PayPal Park)

April 29, 2023: Draw, 2-2 (Q2 Stadium)

Aug. 6, 2022: Draw, 3-3 (Q2 Stadium)

April 2, 2022: Draw, 2-2 (Earthquakes Stadium)

MLS Match Schedule This Weekend

HomeAwayDateTime (ET)Location
NYCFCSan Jose EarthquakesMay. 317:30 PMYankee Stadium
D.C. UnitedToronto FCJun. 17:30 PMAudi Field
Inter MiamiSt. Louis SCJun. 17:30 PMChase Field
NY Red BullsOrlando SCJun. 17:30 PMRed Bull Arena
Philadelphia UnionMontrealJun. 17:30 PMSubaru Park
Chicago FireLA GalaxyJun. 18:30 PMSoldier Field
Minnesota UnitedSporting KCJun. 18:30 PMAllianz Field
Nashville SCNew England RevolutionJun. 18:30 PMGEODIS Park
Real Salt LakeAustin FCJun. 19:30 PMAmerica First Field
LAFCFC DallasJun. 110:30 PMBMO Stadium
Portland TimbersHouston DynamoJun. 110:30 PMProvidence Park
Vancouver WhitecapsColorado RapidsJun. 110:30 PMBC Place
Atlanta UnitedCharlotte FCJun. 22:45 PMMercedes-Benz Stadium

MLS Eastern Conference Standings

TeamRecord (Wins-Draws-Losses)PointsGoal Differential
Inter Miami10-4-33415
FC Cincinnati10-3-3337
NY Red Bulls7-5-3266
Columbus Crew6-6-2248
Toronto FC7-2-7230
Charlotte FC6-4-622-1
Philadelphia Union4-7-4194
Nashville SC4-7-419-1
D.C. United4-6-618-6
Orlando City4-5-617-7
Atlanta United4-4-7162
CF Montreal4-4-716-12
Chicago Fire2-6-812-13
NE Revolution2-1-107-17

MLS Western Conference Standings

TeamRecord (Wins-Draws-Losses)PointsGoal Differential
Real Salt Lake8-6-23013
LA Galaxy7-7-2285
Minnesota United7-4-3255
Austin FC6-5-5230
Vancouver Whitecaps6-4-5224
Colorado Rapids6-4-622-1
Houston Dynamo6-3-6210
Portland Timbers5-4-7190
Seattle Sounders4-6-6180
St. Louis SC3-7-416-2
FC Dallas3-4-713-6
San Jose Earthquakes3-2-1011-11
Sporting KC2-5-811-5

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About the Author

Nick Hennion

Read More @nickhennion

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.