The No. 4 seed Los Angeles Lakers and No. 5 seed Houston Rockets will face each other in Round 1 of the Western Conference playoffs.
Houston is an overwhelming -650 favorite to win its first playoff series since 2020 against a short-handed Los Angeles team. Luka Dončić and Austin Reaves are out indefinitely entering the postseason, but could one of them make an early return if the series goes long enough?
Lakers vs. Rockets Round 1 Odds
- Lakers series moneyline: +475
- Rockets series moneyline: -650
- Over 5.5 games: +100
- Under 5.5 games -120
Lakers vs. Rockets Round 1 Prediction
With Houston trading as a huge favorite in the latest NBA odds for a series that could feature some variance, I think there are multiple angles worth exploring in my Lakers vs. Rockets Round 1 prediction.
For starters, Houston’s series spread of -2.5 being -110 might be the best way to approach this matchup. The Rockets taking care of business in five games or fewer is certainly on the table if the Lakers have only LeBron James to lean on.
Even at full strength, the Lakers lost in five games to the Minnesota Timberwolves in last year’s opening-round series. The Denver Nuggets also eliminated them in five games in 2024 and in four contests in 2023. If Dončić or Reaves never return, I think a short series is the most likely scenario.
According to Databallr, Dončić and Reaves have the highest on-off net rating on the team, whereas the Lakers have actually been better without James this year than with him on the floor.
The Rockets have a high enough floor to handle a James-led Lakers team. Their defensive rating ranks sixth in the NBA, and their offensive rating is eighth.
However, I also don’t blame anyone for being a bit nervous about Dončić’s potential return. That’s why it could be worth sprinkling the +2000 value on the Lakers to lose Game 1 before coming back to win the series. If he’s able to come back sooner than expected, there is a path to the Lakers squeaking out a win.
The Rockets fell in seven games to an older Golden State Warriors team in Round 1 last year. Their offense went through too many cold stretches, which could be a problem again if JJ Redick schemes up the correct coverages.
My best bet for this series is Houston making quick work of Los Angeles. But if the Lakers hang around long enough to get healthy, there is a chance this series could be more entertaining than expected.
Best bet: Rockets series spread (-2.5)
Lakers vs. Rockets Game 1 Odds
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