NBA Most Improved Player Odds 2024-25: Wemby Enters on Top

The NBA’s Most Improved Player has become an interesting race in recent seasons.

Philadelphia 76ers guard Tyrese Maxey won the award in 2023-24 after entering the year with +1200 odds. There was an argument that he might have already been too good to win MIP, but his selection followed a familiar formula of recent winners: a good player establishes himself as an All-Star.

Maxey was the fifth consecutive MIP to earn his first All-Star selection in the same season he won the award. Seven of the past eight winners have been first-time All-Stars, with the lone exception being Pascal Siakam, who earned an All-Star nod the year after he won MIP.

Over the last eight seasons, no player older than 26 has won Most Improved Player. But there also hasn’t been a second-year player who won the award over that span, either.

Most importantly, voters care about scoring. The last eight winners have averaged a scoring increase of 7.2 points per game from the previous season, with Julius Randle’s scoring increase of 4.6 in 2020-21 being the lowest mark to win MIP.

Bettors need to target a young, potential first-time All-Star projected for a scoring average bump of five-plus points

With that formula in mind, here is a look at who might win this year’s Most Improved Player award based on the latest NBA odds: 

Odds to Win 2024-25 NBA Most Improved Player

NBA Most Improved Player Favorite

Victor Wembanyama (+900)

Victor Wembanyama opens as a controversial favorite in the Most Improved Player market.

While Wembanyama will almost certainly earn his first All-Star selection this year, the reigning Rookie of the Year isn’t usually the type of player that wins these awards. 

Wembanyama, in particular, was better than advertised as a generational prospect in his debut campaign.

But let’s allow the trading team to explain: 

“Most Improved (and awards in general) aren’t a prediction on who (we) believe fits the criteria, but a prediction on who we think the writers will vote for,” BetMGM senior trader Halvor Egeland said. “They tend to vote for players that make the jump to becoming a superstar, not the player who actually improved the most year over year.”

The path for Wemby winning this award is similar to Ja Morant’s MIP campaign in 2021-22.

Morant, who won Rookie of the Year in 2019-20, had a noticeable statistical bump in his third season. He averaged 27.4 points, 6.7 assists, and 5.7 rebounds per game for a Grizzlies team that finished as the No. 2 seed in the West.

In addition, it’s important to note that the media will decide this race. 

I might not believe Wemby has a high chance of winning this award, but writers do. ESPN polled a group of NBA experts in August, and Wemby led the way with 14% of the first-place votes for MIP.

Would I pick Wemby to win this award? No. Would I make him the favorite? No. More on that later.

But a bet on him in this market is much more appealing than the -250 odds for him to win the NBA’s Defensive Player of the Year, especially considering he’d also have to be an outlier to win that trophy.

NBA Most Improved Player Sleeper

Cade Cunningham (+2500)

How about a 25/1 price tag on another former No. 1 overall pick looking for his first All-Star nod?

Detroit Pistons point guard Cade Cunningham is my favorite long shot after showing signs of growth in his third season. He averaged 22.7 and 7.5 assists in 62 games last year.

Cunningham can win this award by staying on the floor and leveling up into one of the best point guards in the league. My primary concern is how much more he can produce as a scorer after averaging 22.7 points per game last year, though this will be his best situation yet.

As my Pistons betting preview mentioned, Cunningham’s supporting cast has improved. There are now adults in the room to lead this team between head coach J.B. Bickerstaff and assistant Fred Vinson, who has a sterling reputation for improving a team’s shooting.

If the Pistons show any signs of growth, Cunningham will be a big reason for that. I’m comfortable betting on his talent at this price in an unpredictable market.

The other long shot I bet was Oklahoma City’s Jalen Williams at +2000.

Williams averaged 19.1 points per game to finish fourth in MIP voting last year. If he has another scoring bump as the team’s No. 2 option, he could secure his first All-Star selection.

NBA Most Improved Player Prediction

Jonathan Kuminga (+1000)

If you’ve read my Warriors betting preview, I’m high on this team’s chances after missing last year’s playoffs.

Part of that optimism comes from the potential leaps of Jonathan Kuminga and Brandin Podziemski. Both players are due for a more significant role after the Warriors lost Klay Thompson in the offseason, meaning both players are worth a look in this market.

Podziemski is more of a long shot at 30/1 after averaging 9.2 points per game as a rookie last year. Kuminga, meanwhile, is second in this market at 10/1 after making strides last season. He went from averaging roughly nine points per game to a scoring average of 16.1.

Kuminga has no accolades through three seasons, but he will undoubtedly get recognition if he settles in as Golden State’s No. 2 option behind Stephen Curry.

While this 10/1 price tag isn’t as appealing, don’t be surprised if Kuminga becomes the favorite early in the year.

2023-24 NBA Most Improved Player Voting

List of Most Improved Player Winners