NBA Most Improved Player Odds & Favorites for 2027

Per early NBA odds, Charlotte Hornets guard Brandon Miller is the betting favorite to win the Most Improved Player award during the 2026-27 season. Miller’s +800 value suggests an implied probability of 11.11%.

For context, Atlanta Hawks guard Nickeil Alexander-Walker was named the NBA’s Most Improved Player in 2025-26. In his first season with the Hawks, Alexander-Walker averaged a career-best 20.8 points per game on 46% shooting.

The Hawks have now had consecutive MIP winners, both of whom accomplished the feat in their first season with the team. Dyson Daniels won the Most Improved Player trophy in 2024-25.

Check out the updated odds and predictions for the NBA’s Most Improved Player market ahead of the 2026-27 season:

Odds to Win NBA Most Improved Player 2027

Who Will Win the NBA Most Improved Player in 2027?

It would be a mistake to try to call the winner of the 2026–27 Most Improved Player award this far in advance. Few markets are as volatile as this one, and the 2025–26 race was a perfect example of how quickly things can shift.

Nickeil Alexander-Walker ultimately closed as a heavy favorite (-1250), but he opened the season as a 200/1 long shot. He was one of seven different players to hold favorite status at BetMGM over the course of the year.

The lead changed hands repeatedly. Alexander-Walker overtook Detroit Pistons center Jalen Duren in April, after Duren had surged past Atlanta forward Jalen Johnson in early March. Johnson himself had jumped ahead of Portland Trail Blazers forward Deni Avdija in late February.

Avdija controlled the market for much of the winter before Duren initially claimed the top spot by passing Chicago Bulls guard Josh Giddey in mid-November. Giddey’s brief run as the favorite came after he moved ahead of teammate Matas Buzelis, while Houston Rockets guard Amen Thompson opened the season as the frontrunner.

Here’s how those seven players were priced entering the year:

• Amen Thompson +800
• Matas Buzelis +1400
• Deni Avdija +1600
• Josh Giddey +2000
• Jalen Johnson +5000
• Jalen Duren +8000
• Nickeil Alexander-Walker +20000

That level of movement highlights why the MIP market is so appealing — long shots have a real path to winning because the race is inherently unpredictable.

Still, recent trends offer at least some direction. Over the past two seasons, the award has gone to players who changed teams and stepped into significantly larger roles with the Hawks.

Alexander-Walker is the latest example. He averaged just 9.4 points, 3.2 rebounds, and 2.7 assists as a reserve with the Minnesota Timberwolves before signing a four-year, $62 million deal with Atlanta. Initially coming off the bench, he moved into the starting lineup after an early injury to Trae Young. His emergence was convincing enough that the Hawks eventually dealt Young to the Washington Wizards in January.

His breakout followed a path nearly identical to Dyson Daniels’ the year prior. Daniels entered that season as a +6600 long shot after being traded from the New Orleans Pelicans in the Dejounte Murray deal. With Atlanta, he went from a part-time starter to a full-time contributor, starting all 76 games and averaging 33.8 minutes.

The expanded role unlocked his production. Daniels averaged at least 14 points, five rebounds, four assists, and three steals — joining Magic Johnson, Michael Jordan, Michael Ray Richardson, and Alvin Robertson as the only players to hit those marks in a single season. He also finished second in Defensive Player of the Year voting, cementing himself as one of the league’s elite perimeter defenders.

One interesting wrinkle: neither Daniels nor Alexander-Walker made the All-Star team. That breaks a previous trend in which five straight MIP winners earned their first All-Star selection in the same season. Even so, seven of the last 10 winners have been first-time All-Stars.

That may suggest a slight shift in how voters evaluate the award, though it’s worth noting that both Duren and Avdija — who finished second and third in 2025–26 — did earn their first All-Star nods.

Looking ahead to 2026–27, the most logical targets are players poised for expanded roles with a realistic path to All-Star consideration. Miller makes a lot of sense as the favorite after the Hornets traded away LaMelo Ball. Miller could be poised for a big year in Charlotte.

He’s my pick as of today, but I prefer to target long shots from a betting perspective.

Prediction: Brandon Miller

NBA Most Improved Player Voting, 2025-26

Past NBA Most Improved Player Winners