NBA Coach of the Year Odds 2024-25: Udoka Begins as Favorite

There is a science to predicting the NBA’s Coach of the Year.

Oklahoma City Thunder’s Mark Daigneault won the award in 2023-24, leading his team to 57 wins and the No. 1 seed in the Western Conference. Oklahoma City had a win increase of 17 games from the prior season, clearing its preseason win total by 12.5 games.

And all those factors follow a familiar pattern in this market.

Over the last 14 seasons since 2010-11, the Coach of the Year has had an average playoff seed of 1.7. Nine of the 14 winners have claimed the No. 1 seed.

The average win total for the last 14 Coach of the Year winners has been 57.2, which jumps to 59.7 by removing the three shortened seasons. The previous 14 recipients of this award have guided their respective teams to an average win improvement of 11.6 compared to the prior season.

Lastly, the average preseason win total since 2010-11 has been 45.2. Voters want to reward a coach of a team that exceeds expectations.

Simply put, I’m targeting a coach of a team with this profile:

• No. 1 seed potential
• 50 wins or fewer last year
• Path to clearing win total by double-digit games

Here’s a look at the latest NBA odds and who might be the best bet to win this year’s award:

Odds to Win 2024-25 NBA Coach of the Year

NBA Coach of the Year favorite

Ime Udoka (+800)

The Houston Rockets are ready to return to playoff contention after winning 41 games last year. That’s the next phase of their rebuild, and Ime Udoka is more than qualified to help this young team make that leap. That’s why the Rockets’ playoff odds are enticing at plus-money.

But are we sure Houston has No. 1 seed upside in a loaded Western Conference?

The Thunder aren’t going away after winning 57 games last year, and the West continues to get deeper and more competitive each season. Winning 50 games wasn’t enough to host the opening round of the playoffs last year.

Perhaps the Rockets (preseason win total of 43.5) surprise everyone like the Thunder did last year, proving they are ready to contend with a young roster.

I’m not convinced. I’m passing on Udoka as the favorite.

NBA Coach of the Year sleeper

Mike Budenholzer (+2500)

Mike Budenholzer won Coach of the Year in 2018-19, leading the Milwaukee Bucks to a 60-22 record and a No. 1 seed in the East. The Bucks had a preseason win total of 48 that year after winning 44 games in the previous campaign.

This will be Budenholzer’s first season at the helm for the Phoenix Suns, but if he can help them reach their full potential, he will have a solid case to win another Coach of the Year award.

Phoenix barely avoided the Play-In Tournament last year, winning 49 games with an oft-injured big three of Kevin Durant, Devin Booker, and Bradley Beal. Expectations remain the same, as the Suns futures odds have a preseason win total of 47.5.

If the Suns can stay healthy and improve their shot diet under Budenholzer, it wouldn’t be surprising to see them challenge the top of the conference. That was the expectation this time last year when they traded for Beal, after all.

NBA Coach of the Year prediction

Kenny Atkinson (+2000)

The Boston Celtics remain the team to beat in the East, but what if they have a championship hangover during the regular season? 

If the top seed in that conference is up for grabs, the New York Knicks, Philadelphia 76ers, Milwaukee Bucks, and Cleveland Cavaliers are all lurking as formidable threats.

Of those teams, only the Cavs have a preseason win total below 50, providing more wiggle room for exceeding expectations. Kenny Atkinson also has a narrative case on his side, as this is his first season as Cleveland’s head coach.

The Cavaliers have become an elite defense, ranking sixth in the league in defensive rating during last year’s 48-win campaign that earned them the No. 4 seed in the East. But there is room for improvement on the other end after Cleveland ranked 18th in offensive rating.

If Atkinson can help orchestrate a better offense, the Cavs will suddenly have more upside than the betting markets indicate. This award could be the best way to bet on that.

I’m also betting on the Cavs to win their division, as highlighted in my Cavaliers betting preview for 2024-25.

2023-24 NBA Coach of the Year Voting

List of Coach of the Year Winners