The NBA’s Most Improved Player race is arguably the most difficult to predict each season, but there are a few trends that can help point people in the right direction when assessing the latest NBA betting lines.
3 Trends for Picking NBA Most Improved Player
Avoid Second-Year Players
Throughout the history of the NBA’s Most Improved Player award, there have only been five second-year players to win it. That includes the very first season of this honor when Alvin Robertson claimed the trophy in the 1985-86 season.
However, the last time a second-year player won MIP was when Monta Ellis did so in the 2006-07 season. Gilbert Arenas (2002-03) is the only other second-year MIP winner in this century.
Typically, the Most Improved Player is someone in their third or fourth season. Of the last 16 MIP winners, seven have been in their fourth campaign, and four more were in their third season. The average over that span is 4.4.
Consider First-Time All-Stars
Based on recent history, it could be beneficial to consider players capable of becoming first-time All-Stars.
Since 2010-11, 10 of the last 16 winners earned their first All-Star selection in the same year that they won the award. This included a stretch of five consecutive first-time All-Stars between 2020 and 2024.
Although the last two MIP winners weren’t first-time All-Stars, voters generally prefer to reward a player for leaping into stardom when it comes to this award.
Scoring Improvement Matters
Atlanta Hawks guard Nickeil Alexander-Walker won the Most Improved Player award in 2025-26, highlighting how much a scoring boost matters.
In his first season with the Hawks, Alexander-Walker averaged 20.8 points per game as a full-time starter, which was an improvement of 11.4 points compared to his last season with the Minnesota Timberwolves.
Since 2010-11, 15 of the last 16 MIP winners improved their scoring by at least five points per game compared to the previous season. Their average scoring improvement over that span is 7.5 points per contest.
Focusing on players who could benefit from increased offensive roles is a good starting point for predicting the MIP winner.
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