The Oklahoma City Thunder are one win away from another trip to the NBA Finals when they face the San Antonio Spurs in Game 6 of the Western Conference finals. Tipoff is 8:30 p.m. ET on Thursday at Frost Bank Center in San Antonio on NBC.
San Antonio is a 3.5-point NBA betting favorite to keep its season alive and force a Game 7. Check out my Thunder vs. Spurs prediction for Game 6:
Thunder vs. Spurs Prediction: Game 6 on May 28
- Spurs under 111.5 points
I like the under on the Spurs’ team total (111.5) for my Game 6 best bet on Thursday. There are multiple avenues for this to happen.
For one, San Antonio could be fading against the defending champions. The Spurs’ inexperience might finally be catching up to them, as well as the fact that they went so hard in Game 1 of this series.
Victor Wembanyama’s recent output probably best illustrates my theory. Wembanyama made just four shots (all of which were near the rim) in a 20-point effort. He only grabbed six rebounds after collecting 41 total boards across the first two games. There is a reasonable chance that the increased minutes are starting to take a toll on him.
While Wembanyama’s points prop (26.5) could be worth a look in Game 6, I’d rather fade San Antonio’s team total because it’s unlikely that the offense does well if he struggles again. There is also a chance the Spurs simply run out of steam if the Thunder get off to a strong start.
However, there is also a path for San Antonio to win a defensive battle, as it did in Game 5. The Spurs evened the series with a 103-82 win. Both of San Antonio’s victories in this series have followed that blueprint, as the Spurs and Thunder were tied at 101 after regulation in Game 1.
Through five games, the Spurs have finished below 111.5 points in regulation three times. Not counting overtime in the opener, they’ve averaged about 108 points per game in this round. That’s about what I’m projecting in what could be another slugfest on Thursday.
Prediction: Spurs under 111.5 points
Thunder vs. Spurs Odds for Game 6
- Thunder spread: +3.5
- Spurs spread: -3.5
- Total: 219.5
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