Are the Vikings Going to Start Regressing Soon?

Powered by one of the league’s best defenses, the Vikings enter their Week 6 bye at 5-0.

Kevin O’Connell’s team leads the NFC North and is one of three remaining unbeaten teams. . O’Connell, a previous NFL Coach of the Year winner, is amongst the favorites to win again.

To the average observer, the Vikings are incapable of doing anything wrong. While the offense remains a question, an elite defense keeps that problem at bay.

What I’m here to say is that, upon closer inspection, a looming regression case exists in Minnesota in relation to their NFL odds.

Most fascinating? The Miami Dolphins showed teams the blueprint for how to beat this team.

When you consider the regression case against the upcoming schedule, it may be time to consider selling Minnesota. Let’s dive into the analysis.

The Vikings Defense is Good, but Beatable

Entering Week 6, the Vikings pace the NFL in defensive DVOA. At a -24.6% rating, Brian Flores’ unit sits ahead of teams like Seattle, Jacksonville and San Francisco.

What’s fascinating is that their worst rating of the season came as 11.5-point home favorites to Miami. In that game, Minnesota recorded a +1.7% defensive DVOA rating.

The pass vs run splits are further noticeable. Minnesota’s pass defense showed up well against Miami’s pass offense, recording a -43.6% DVOA rating. It qualifies as their best of the season.

But Miami dominated Minnesota on the ground. After three straight ratings north of -35%, Minnesota posted a 15.6% rush defense grade, their worst of the season.

Taking it a step further, Minnesota recorded a 31.6% rushing success rate (9th) compared to a +0.065 rush EPA per play (26th). Translation: Miami exploded or achieved nothing.

A similar pattern happened against the Bears in Week 2. Fumble recoveries helped the Vikings defense to a -42.8% rush defense DVOA rating, but it didn’t stop the Bears from succeeding.

Like Miami, Chicago struggled to a 32.1% rushing success rate. It placed Minnesota 14th amongst all Week 2 defenses.

But Minnesota’s rush EPA per play on rushes excluding turnovers came in at -0.124 (18th). For context, their rating for the season is -0.214 (2nd).

This leads me to a working belief about the Vikings defense: Teams that can run the ball effectively will see better results.

Further driving my belief in a Vikings regression case? The team sits at 5-0 despite three wins by seven or fewer points. According to FTN Fantasy, Minnesota’s win expectancy is 3.8.

Vikings Upcoming Schedule Features Troubling Matchups

Coming out of the bye, Minnesota faces an absolute gauntlet of strong rushing attacks.

Indianapolis comes to town in Week 7. Shane Steichen brings a Jonathan Taylor-led rushing attack that ranks seventh in rush offense DVOA this season.

It includes a -29.4% rating against a strong Texans run defense compared to a 5.5% rating for the season.

A week later, Minnesota travels to face the Detroit Lions. Detroit deploys an even better rushing attack (10%, 2nd in DVOA). It includes three performances north of 18% in rush DVOA.

If that weren’t enough, Minnesota then returns home to face the Buffalo Bills. Josh Allen and James Cook contribute to a rushing attack that leads the NFL with an 18.8% rating.

Through five games, Buffalo has only recorded a below-average rush offense DVOA performance against Houston.

It’s going to place the Vikings defense under a microscope.

While the defensive trends are impossible to ignore, it’s equally important to note only one defense (Kansas City) has faced an easier set of opposing units.

As it stands, the Vikings project to face eight games against the 16-best rushing offenses. Six of those games come against the seven-best rushing attacks.

It leaves me bearish on the Vikings as an NFC North threat, despite the market rating them as favorites.

While a missed postseason would shock me, Vikings Under 10.5 Wins has my attention at current price (+145). To me, the ceiling for O’Connell’s team is 11 wins, despite five already.