- The Bears are -2 point favorites vs the Falcons
- Total (Over/Under): 48 points
- Watch this game on FOX
The Chicago Bears (3-2-0) visit Mercedes-Benz Stadium to take on the Atlanta Falcons (2-3-0) on Oct. 18. Kickoff is scheduled for 1:00 pm in Atlanta, GA.
The Bears are betting favorites in this matchup, with the spread sitting at -2 (+100).
The Bears vs. Falcons Over/Under is 48 total points for the game.
Bet now on Falcons vs Bears & all NFL games with BetMGM
Bears vs. Falcons Odds, Spread, Over/Under
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
| Bears | -2 +100 | 48 +120 | -120 |
| Falcons | +2 -130 | 48 -160 | +100 |
Bears vs. Falcons Prediction
The winning team model predicts the Falcons will win this game with 61.6% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.
Bears vs Falcons Spread Prediction
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Falcons will cover the spread with 68.6% confidence.
This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.
Bet now on Falcons vs Bears and all NFL games with BetMGM
We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Bears players this game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Bears Player Prop Bets Today
- Caleb Williams has hit the Pass Attempts Over in 12 of his last 16 games (+7.60 Units / 42% ROI)
- Rome Odunze has hit the Longest Reception Over in 11 of his last 14 games (+7.55 Units / 47% ROI)
- D’Andre Swift has hit the Receptions Under in 12 of his last 18 games (+6.45 Units / 28% ROI)
- Luther Burden III has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 12 of his last 17 games (+6.20 Units / 31% ROI)
- Luther Burden III has hit the Longest Reception Over in 12 of his last 17 games (+6.10 Units / 31% ROI)
And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Falcons players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Falcons Player Prop Best Bets Today
- Olamide Zaccheaus has hit the Longest Reception Under in 11 of his last 13 games (+8.60 Units / 57% ROI)
- Olamide Zaccheaus has hit the Receptions Under in 7 of his last 8 games at home (+6.45 Units / 54% ROI)
- Michael Penix Jr. has hit the Interceptions Under in 6 of his last 7 games (+4.90 Units / 57% ROI)
- Austin Hooper has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 9 of his last 13 games (+4.30 Units / 29% ROI)
- Austin Hooper has hit the Receptions Over in 8 of his last 13 games (+4.05 Units / 23% ROI)
First Touchdown Scorer Bet for Falcons vs Bears
| Player Name | 1st TD Odds |
|---|---|
| D'Andre Swift | +390 |
| Bijan Robinson | +400 |
| Kyle Monangai | +625 |
| Drake London | +950 |
| Roschon Johnson | +1000 |
Anytime Touchdown Scorer Bet for Falcons vs Bears
| Player Name | Anytime TD Odds |
|---|---|
| Bijan Robinson | -250 |
| D'Andre Swift | -185 |
| Drake London | +110 |
| Luther Burden III | +180 |
| Rome Odunze | +195 |
Receiving Props: Total Receiving Yards for Falcons vs Bears
| Player Name | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| Drake London | 86.5 -135 | 86.5 +100 |
| Luther Burden III | 50.5 -111 | 50.5 -118 |
| Rome Odunze | 45.5 -115 | 45.5 -115 |
| Colston Loveland | 36.5 -120 | 36.5 -111 |
| Kyle Pitts | 29.5 -115 | 29.5 -115 |
Rushing Props: Total Rushing Yards for Falcons vs Bears
| Player Name | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| Bijan Robinson | 91.5 -115 | 91.5 -115 |
Bears Best Bets:
- The Chicago Bears have hit the 2H Moneyline in 13 of their last 19 games (+8.85 Units / 35% ROI)
- The Chicago Bears have covered the Spread in 14 of their last 22 games (+6.45 Units / 27% ROI)
- The Chicago Bears have hit the Moneyline in 14 of their last 22 games (+6.35 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Chicago Bears have covered the 2H Spread in 13 of their last 19 games (+6.23 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Chicago Bears have covered the 4Q Spread in 13 of their last 19 games (+6.10 Units / 28% ROI)
Falcons Best Bets:
- The Atlanta Falcons have hit the 1H Moneyline in 11 of their last 20 games (+6.05 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Atlanta Falcons have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 13 of their last 20 games (+5.05 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Atlanta Falcons have hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 11 of their last 17 games (+4.00 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Atlanta Falcons have hit the 2Q Moneyline in 9 of their last 17 games (+2.90 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Atlanta Falcons have hit the 1H Team Total Over in 11 of their last 18 games (+2.69 Units / 12% ROI)
Bears Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL season, the Bears are 3-2 (+0.8 Units / 14.55% ROI).
- Bears are 3-2 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.35 Units / 4.55% ROI
- Bears are 1-4 when betting the Over for -3.4 Units / -61.82% ROI
- BearsBearsBears are 4-1 when betting the Under for +2.9 Units / 52.73% ROI
Falcons Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL season, the Falcons are 2-3 (-1.2 Units / -22.22% ROI).
- Falcons are 2-3 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.75 Units / -12.82% ROI
- Falcons are 3-2 when betting the Over for +0.8 Units / 14.55% ROI
- Falcons are 2-3 when betting the Under for -1.3 Units / -23.64% ROI
Chicago Bears: Keys to the Game vs. the Atlanta Falcons
The Bears are undefeated (11-0) when forcing at least one fumble since the 2025 season — T-best in NFL; League Avg: .633.
The Bears are undefeated (4-0) when the opposing team commits 60 yards or more in penalties. since the 2025 season — best in NFL; League Avg: .502.
The Bears are 3-2 (.600) this season — T-7th-worst in NFL; League Avg: .494.
The Bears are 1-2 (.333) after a win this season — T-10th-worst in NFL; League Avg: .500.
Atlanta Falcons: Keys to the Game vs. the Chicago Bears
Falcons are 3-10 (.231) when making less than 3 explosive run plays in a game (T-5th-worst in NFL) and .778 when making 3 or more explosive run plays in a game since the 2025 season (T-9th-best in NFL).
The Falcons are winless (0-6) whe trailing at the end of the first half since the 2025 season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .229.
The Falcons are 2-3 (.400) this season — T-9th-worst in NFL; League Avg: .494.
The Falcons are 1-5 (.167) when tied at the end of quarter 1 since the 2025 season — T-3rd-worst in NFL; League Avg: .500.
Additional Matchup Notes for Chicago Bears vs. Atlanta Falcons
The Falcons are averaging 4.8 yards per carry since the 2025 season — T-4th-best in NFL. The Bears have allowed 5.0 yards per carry since the 2025 season — 4th-worst in NFL.
The Falcons have been successful on just 15.4% of pass attempts when their QB was under pressure this season — 2nd-worst in NFL. The Bears have pressured opposing QBs on 36.2% of passing plays this season — 3rd-best in NFL.
The Falcons have thrown for 20+ yards on 11.2% of attempts this season — 4th-best in NFL. The Bears allowed 20+ yards on 11.5% of attempts this season — 4th-worst in NFL.
The Bears have run 23.0% offensive plays in the red zone this season — best in NFL. The Falcons have allowed their opponent to run 18.6% of plays in the red zone this season — 5th-worst in NFL.
The Bears are averaging 5.5 yards per carry on rushes up the middle this season — 2nd-best in NFL. The Falcons have allowed 4.8 yards per carry when defending rushes up the middle this season — 4th-worst in NFL.
The Bears are averaging 4.6 yards per carry on rushes up the middle since the 2025 season — 3rd-best in NFL. The Falcons have allowed 4.7 yards per carry when defending rushes up the middle since the 2025 season — worst in NFL.
Chicago Bears Offense: Important Stats
The Bears committed 5 turnovers in Week 5 — T-most in NFL.
The Bears have run 23% of their plays in the red zone this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 15%.
The Bears ran successful plays on 26% of plays on first read passes in Week 5 — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 49%.
The Bears have 5 TDs that were 20+ yards this season — T-2nd-most in NFL.
Atlanta Falcons Offense: Important Stats
The Falcons have averaged 8.6 yards per play on first drive of the game this season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 5.4.
The Falcons have thrown the ball 43% of the time (134 Pass Attempts/310 plays) this season — lowest in NFL; League Avg: 53%.
The Falcons have run successful plays on 15% of pass attempts on passes when their QB has been pressured this season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 28%.
The Falcons have averaged -1.01 epa per play against tight coverage this season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: -0.41.
Chicago Bears Defense: Important Stats
The Bears defense have allowed 13.4 yards per play on contested throws this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 5.5.
The Bears defense has allowed passes of 40+ yards on 7 of 130 attempts (5%) this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 2%.
The Bears defense have allowed 12.0 yards per play against play action passes this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 7.3.
The Bears defense has allowed 27.8 yards per dropback (501 yards/18 attempts) when targeted at a depth of 20+ yards this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 12.5.
Atlanta Falcons Defense: Important Stats
Opponents have run the ball against The Falcons defense on just 31% of plays (101 carries/327 plays) this season — lowest in NFL; League Avg: 42%.
The Falcons defense allowed an average of 3.6 yards after contact per carry (34 carries) in Week 5 — 3rd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 1.8.
The Falcons defense did not have a deep ball thrown against them in Week 5 — lowest in NFL; League Avg: 11%.
Opponents have run the ball 20.2 times per game against The Falcons defense (101 carries / 5 games) this season — lowest in NFL; League Avg: 25.9.
Looking to place a bet on this game with a First Bet Offer up to $1,500? Bet now on Falcons vs Bears and all NFL games with BetMGM
More NFL Betting Predictions:
- Anytime & First Touchdown Scorer Predictions
- Receiving Yards Prop Predictions
- Rushing Yards Prop Predictions
- Passing Yards Prop Predictions
- Receptions Made Prop Predictions
- Rushing Attempts Prop Predictions
- Passing Touchdowns Prop Predictions
- QB Interception Prop Predictions
- Field Goals Made Prop Predictions
- NFL Betting Previews: Every Game
More NFL Odds at BetMGM
If you’re looking for more NFL odds, check out the sportsbook’s betting markets throughout the year.
From futures like Rams Super Bowl odds and Lions odds to make the playoffs to game odds like spread, money lines, and totals, there’s never a break in the action.
Log in to your BetMGM account today — or sign up for a new account via the online sportsbook or BetMGM iOS app or BetMGM Android app — to start betting!
The content provided in this blog is intended for entertainment purposes only. All views and opinions expressed are the authors and reflect their individual perspectives on sports, betting, and related topics. This content should not be considered professional betting advice or the official views of BetMGM LLC. Please gamble responsibly. If you or someone you know is experiencing issues related to gambling, seek help from a licensed health professional. This blog is not liable for any losses, damages, or consequences resulting from betting activities.
