Bears vs Packers Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NFL, Week 5

• The Bears are -1 point favorites vs the Packers
• Total (Over/Under): 44 points
• Watch this game on FOX

The Chicago Bears (3-1-0) visit Lambeau Field to take on the Green Bay Packers (2-2-0) on Oct. 11. Kickoff is scheduled for 1:00 pm in Green Bay, WI.

The Bears are betting favorites in this matchup, with the spread sitting at -1 (-150).

The Bears vs. Packers Over/Under is 44 total points for the game.

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Bears vs. Packers Odds, Spread, Over/Under

Bears vs. Packers Prediction

The winning team model predicts the Bears will win this game with 53.1% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

Bears vs Packers Spread Prediction

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Bears will cover the spread with 52.1% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

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We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Bears players this game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Bears Player Prop Bets Today

• D’Andre Swift has hit the Receptions Under in 13 of his last 18 games (+8.75 Units / 38% ROI)
• Colston Loveland has hit the Receptions Over in 13 of his last 19 games (+6.75 Units / 29% ROI)
• Luther Burden III has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 12 of his last 17 games (+6.20 Units / 31% ROI)
• Luther Burden III has hit the Longest Reception Over in 12 of his last 17 games (+6.10 Units / 31% ROI)
• Kyle Monangai has hit the Carries Over in 13 of his last 19 games (+6.05 Units / 26% ROI)

And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Packers players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Packers Player Prop Best Bets Today

• Jonnu Smith has hit the Longest Reception Under in 12 of his last 16 games (+7.27 Units / 40% ROI)
• Josh Jacobs has hit the Longest Reception Under in 9 of his last 11 games (+6.80 Units / 54% ROI)
• Josh Jacobs has hit the Receptions Under in 6 of his last 7 games (+5.65 Units / 63% ROI)
• Jordan Love has hit the Rushing Yards Under in 11 of his last 16 games (+5.45 Units / 30% ROI)
• Jonnu Smith has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 11 of his last 16 games (+5.35 Units / 29% ROI)

Bears Best Bets:

• The Chicago Bears have hit the Moneyline in 15 of their last 22 games (+9.60 Units / 30% ROI)
• The Chicago Bears have hit the 2H Moneyline in 13 of their last 19 games (+9.05 Units / 36% ROI)
• The Chicago Bears have covered the Spread in 15 of their last 22 games (+8.55 Units / 36% ROI)
• The Chicago Bears have hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 14 of their last 19 games (+8.10 Units / 38% ROI)
• The Chicago Bears have covered the 4Q Spread in 14 of their last 19 games (+8.10 Units / 37% ROI)

Packers Best Bets:

• The Green Bay Packers have hit the 2H Game Total Over in 12 of their last 18 games (+4.95 Units / 24% ROI)
• The Green Bay Packers have hit the Game Total Over in 13 of their last 21 games (+4.20 Units / 18% ROI)
• The Green Bay Packers have hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 11 of their last 18 games (+3.10 Units / 15% ROI)
• The Green Bay Packers have hit the 3Q Game Total Under in 5 of their last 7 games at home (+2.35 Units / 28% ROI)
• The Green Bay Packers have hit the 1H Team Total Under in 11 of their last 19 games (+2.35 Units / 10% ROI)

Bears Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Bears are 3-1 (+1.9 Units / 43.18% ROI).

• Bears are 3-1 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.5 Units / 22.9% ROI
• Bears are 1-3 when betting the Over for -2.3 Units / -52.27% ROI
• BearsBearsBears are 3-1 when betting the Under for +1.9 Units / 43.18% ROI

Packers Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Packers are 0-2 (-2.2 Units / -50.57% ROI).

• Packers are 2-2 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.35 Units / -20.77% ROI
• Packers are 2-2 when betting the Over for -0.2 Units / -4.55% ROI
• Packers are 2-2 when betting the Under for -0.2 Units / -4.55% ROI

Chicago Bears: Keys to the Game vs. the Green Bay Packers

The Bears are 10-2 (.833) when not throwing an interception since the 2025 season — T-7th-best in NFL. The Packers have intercepted 11 passes since the 2025 season — T-5th-fewest in NFL.

The Bears are undefeated (4-0) when the opposing team commits 60 yards or more in penalties. since the 2025 season — best in NFL; League Avg: .509.

The Bears are undefeated (11-0) when forcing at least one fumble since the 2025 season — T-best in NFL; League Avg: .643.

The Bears are undefeated (5-0) when allowing less than 10 rushes of four or more yards since the 2025 season — T-best in NFL; League Avg: .713.

Green Bay Packers: Keys to the Game vs. the Chicago Bears

Packers are 9-3 (.750) when allowing an average of less than 5 yards on first down (8th-best in NFL) and just .125 when allowing an average of more than 5 yards on first down since the 2025 season (3rd-worst in NFL).

Packers are 10-5-1 (.625) when allowing less than 5 yards per rush (10th-best in NFL) and just .200 when allowing more than 5 yards per rush since the 2025 season (T-6th-worst in NFL).

Packers are 9-1-1 (.818) when converting 55% or more of its red zone chances into touchdowns (4th-best in NFL) and just .200 when converting less than 55% of its red zone chances into touchdowns since the 2025 season (6th-worst in NFL).

The Packers are 5-4 (.556) when rushing less than 25 times since the 2025 season — 5th-best in NFL; League Avg: .279.

Additional Matchup Notes for Chicago Bears vs. Green Bay Packers

The Packers have a third down conversion rate of just 26.1% this season — worst in NFL. The Bears defense has allowed a third down conversion rate of just 23.7% this season — 2nd-best in NFL.

The Packers have gone three and out on 28.9% of their drives this season — 4th-worst in NFL. The Bears have forced three and outs on 31.7% of opponent drives this season — best in NFL.

The Packers have scored on 23.8% of their drives in the second half this season — T-4th-worst in NFL. The Bears defense has allowed scores on 26.3% of opponent drives in the second half this season — 3rd-best in NFL.

Bears RBs have averaged 5.4 touches per game in the red zone since the 2025 season — 3rd-highest in NFL. The Packers have allowed 19 rushing touchdowns in the Red Zone to RBs since the 2025 season — T-most in NFL.

The Bears have 9 rushing touchdowns this season — 2nd-most in NFL. The Packers have allowed 7 rushing TDs this season — T-2nd-most in NFL.

The Bears are 10-2 (.833) when not throwing an interception since the 2025 season — T-7th-best in NFL. The Packers have intercepted 11 passes since the 2025 season — T-5th-fewest in NFL.

Chicago Bears Offense: Important Stats

The Bears ran 29% of their plays in the red zone in Week 4 — best in NFL; League Avg: 15%.

The Bears have run 25% of their plays in the red zone this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 15%.

The Bears have 5 TDs that were 20+ yards this season — T-most in NFL.

The Bears have run 293 plays this season — most in NFL.

Green Bay Packers Offense: Important Stats

The Packers have thrown the ball 82% of the time (9 Pass Attempts/11 plays) on 3rd and short this season — highest in NFL; League Avg: 43%.

The Packers have run successful plays on 12% of rush attempts in the 4th quarter this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 42%.

The Packers have gone three and out 7 times in the 2nd quarter this season — most in NFL.

The Packers have averaged 5.6 yards per play against tight coverage since the 2025 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 3.2.

Chicago Bears Defense: Important Stats

The Bears defense did not allow a third down conversion in Week 4 — T-best in NFL; League Avg: 35%.

The Bears defense pressured opposing QBs on 53% of pass attempts in Week 4 — best in NFL; League Avg: 19%.

The Bears defense did not allow a late down conversion in Week 4 — best in NFL; League Avg: 10%.

The Bears defense hit opposing QBs on 53% of pass attempts in Week 4 — best in NFL; League Avg: 19%.

Green Bay Packers Defense: Important Stats

The Packers defense has allowed 11.2 yards from scrimmage per touch (134 yards / 12 touches) on 3rd and short this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 5.1.

The Packers defense has allowed successful plays on 45% of pass attempts open coverage this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 62%.

The Packers defense has allowed successful plays on 45% of pass attempts on contested throws since the 2025 season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 33%.

Offenses facing the Packers have thrown the ball 45% of the time (117 Pass Attempts/260 plays) this season — 2nd-lowest in NFL; League Avg: 53%.

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More NFL Betting Predictions:

• Anytime & First Touchdown Scorer Predictions
• Receiving Yards Prop Predictions
• Rushing Yards Prop Predictions
• Passing Yards Prop Predictions
• Receptions Made Prop Predictions
• Rushing Attempts Prop Predictions
• Passing Touchdowns Prop Predictions
• QB Interception Prop Predictions
• Field Goals Made Prop Predictions
• NFL Betting Previews: Every Game

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