2 Best NFL Player Props for TNF: Bears vs Patriots

Last year’s champions of the AFC East and NFC North kick off Week 7 in Bears vs Patriots.

Beyond side, total and moneyline markets, bettors also have access to myriad player props. Below, I’ve outlined my best player prop predictions for the showcase based on NFL odds.

Bears vs Patriots Prediction: TNF Player Props

Drake Maye Over 248.5 Passing Yards (-115)

Consistent about the Bears defense this season is their total inconsistency.

Dennis Allen’s defense ranks 27th in variance entering Week 7. They’ve posted as high a pass defense DVOA grade as -53.7% and as low a grade of 63.5%.

The latter performance came in Green Bay. While New England likely poses a smaller challenge – especially without Romeo Doubs – it remains an offense on the ascendancy.

Drake Maye began the season by staying under this line in three straight. Over the last three games, he cleared it twice. It coincided with a softer defensive schedule.

Chicago, as a favorite against Bryce Young and Jordan Love, allowed both to dominate their secondary. Love threw for 367 yards while Young tossed 361 passing yards.

Even Michael Penix reached 225 passing yards against the Bears defense. Meanwhile, quarterbacks like Geno Smith, Jalen Hurts and Carson Wentz stayed under this line.

Plus, Allen’s defense plays one of the higher rates of single-high coverage in the NFL. Last year, Maye led the league in expected points added per play against the scheme.

It leads me to predict he clears this benchmark for the third time in his last four.

Demario Douglas Over 37.5 Receiving Yards (-125)

The biggest beneficiary of Doubs’ injury on Sunday appeared to be Douglas. In his absence, the normal Patriots WR3 notched seven receptions on eight targets for 86 yards.

It marked his second straight game clearing this benchmark. At home against the Raiders, he notched four receptions on five targets for 65 yards.

Douglas operates as the deep threat in Josh McDaniels’ offense. Over his last four games, he recorded at least one 30+ yard reception three times. His only failure came at Buffalo.

With Doubs heading to injured reserve, he gets a Bears defense that primarily surrendered yards to opposing wide receivers.

In the three aforementioned games against decent passing attacks (Panthers, Packers, Falcons), Chicago averaged 219 yards allowed to opposing wide receivers.

Bringing down that average is the game against Atlanta. Against the Packers and Panthers, Chicago’s defense surrendered 286 and 213 yards to opposing receivers.

By pass offense DVOA this season, New England falls between the two offenses at 10th in pass offense DVOA.

Douglas also leads the Patriots in yards per route run against single-high coverage amongst active receivers. Those tendencies lead me to predict he clears a low line.