Buccaneers vs Bengals Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NFL, Week 1

• The Bengals are -3.5 point favorites vs the Buccaneers
• Total (Over/Under): 52.5 points
• Watch this game on FOX

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-0-0) visit Paycor Stadium to take on the Cincinnati Bengals (0-0-0) on Sep. 13. Kickoff is scheduled for 1:00 pm in Cincinnati, OH.

The Bengals are betting favorites in this matchup, with the spread sitting at -3.5 (-112).

The Buccaneers vs. Bengals Over/Under is 52.5 total points for the game.

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Buccaneers vs. Bengals Odds, Spread, Over/Under

Buccaneers vs. Bengals Prediction

The winning team model predicts the Bengals will win this game with 64.2% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

Buccaneers vs Bengals Spread Prediction

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Bengals will cover the spread with 62.5% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

Bet now on Bengals vs Buccaneers and all NFL games with BetMGM

We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Buccaneers players this game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Buccaneers Player Prop Bets Today

• Kenneth Gainwell has hit the Carries Under in 12 of his last 17 games (+6.10 Units / 29% ROI)
• Baker Mayfield has hit the Interceptions Over in 7 of his last 8 games (+6.00 Units / 66% ROI)
• Kenneth Gainwell has hit the Longest Rush Over in 12 of his last 17 games (+5.95 Units / 30% ROI)
• Baker Mayfield has hit the Completions Under in 7 of his last 8 games (+5.85 Units / 64% ROI)
• Baker Mayfield has hit the TD Passes Under in 8 of his last 11 games (+5.85 Units / 47% ROI)

And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Bengals players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Bengals Player Prop Best Bets Today

• Chase Brown has hit the Rushing Yards Over in 9 of his last 11 games (+6.65 Units / 52% ROI)
• Ja’Marr Chase has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 7 of his last 8 games at home (+5.85 Units / 63% ROI)
• Tee Higgins has hit the Longest Reception Over in 8 of his last 10 games (+5.75 Units / 50% ROI)
• Samaje Perine has hit the Receptions Under in his last 5 games at home (+5.00 Units / 62% ROI)
• Evan McPherson has hit the Field Goals Under in his last 4 games (+4.30 Units / 92% ROI)

Anytime Touchdown Scorer Bet for Bengals vs Buccaneers

Receiving Props: Total Receiving Yards for Bengals vs Buccaneers

Rushing Props: Total Rushing Yards for Bengals vs Buccaneers

Buccaneers Best Bets:

• The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 9 of their last 12 games (+5.45 Units / 40% ROI)
• The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have hit the 3Q Game Total Over in 10 of their last 14 games (+5.10 Units / 30% ROI)
• The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have hit the 1H Team Total Under in 11 of their last 17 games (+4.70 Units / 25% ROI)
• The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have hit the 3Q Moneyline in 2 of their last 4 games (+2.00 Units / 28% ROI)
• The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have covered the 3Q Spread in 5 of their last 8 away games (+1.75 Units / 18% ROI)

Bengals Best Bets:

• The Cincinnati Bengals have hit the Team Total Over in 12 of their last 18 games (+5.10 Units / 24% ROI)
• The Cincinnati Bengals have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 8 of their last 11 games at home (+4.55 Units / 35% ROI)
• The Cincinnati Bengals have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in their last 4 games at home (+4.00 Units / 82% ROI)
• The Cincinnati Bengals have covered the 1Q Spread in 5 of their last 6 games at home (+3.80 Units / 51% ROI)
• The Cincinnati Bengals have hit the 3Q Game Total Over in 10 of their last 16 games (+3.10 Units / 16% ROI)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Keys to the Game vs. the Cincinnati Bengals

The Buccaneers are 4-15 (.211) when allowing 22 or more points (9th-lowest in NFL) and 14-1 (.933) when allowing less than 22 points since the 2024 season (6th-best in NFL).

The Buccaneers are 4-10 (.286) when making less than 5 explosive passes in a game (8th-lowest in NFL) and 14-6 (.700) when making 5 or more explosive passes in a game since the 2024 season (8th-best in NFL).

The Buccaneers were 2-6 (.250) when having a turnover margin within one of the opposing team last season — 7th-worst in NFL; League Avg: .497.

The Buccaneers were 2-8 (.200) when committing 1 or more turnovers last season — T-7th-worst in NFL; League Avg: .375.

Cincinnati Bengals: Keys to the Game vs. the Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Bengals were 3-1 (.750) when allowing an average of less than 5 yards on first down (7th-best in NFL) and 3-10 (.231) when allowing an average of more than 5 yards on first down last season (T-8th-lowest in NFL).

The Bengals were 3-5 (.375) when within 7 points entering the 4th quarter last season — T-9th-worst in NFL; League Avg: .496.

The Bengals were 2-9 (.182) when converting less than 50% of third down conversion opportunities last season — 4th-worst in NFL; League Avg: .451.

The Bengals were 3-5 (.375) when within 7 points at the two minute warning last season — T-10th-worst in NFL; League Avg: .496.

Additional Matchup Notes for Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Cincinnati Bengals

The Bengals threw 9 touchdown passes in the last 4 weeks of the regular season — 4th-most in NFL. The Buccaneers allowed 9 passing TDs in the last 4 weeks of the regular season — T-3rd-fewest in NFL.

The Bengals have gone three and out on 13.1% of their drives since Week 10 — T-4th-best in NFL. The Buccaneers have forced three and outs on 13.3% of opponent drives since Week 10 — 3rd-lowest in NFL.

The Bengals averaged 2.2 passing TDs per game in the last 4 weeks of the regular season — 4th-best in NFL. The Buccaneers allowed 2.2 passing touchdowns per game in the last 4 weeks of the regular season– T-3rd-highest in NFL.

Buccaneers TEs averaged just 5.1 targets per game last season — lowest in NFL. The Bengals allowed 6.8 receptions per game to TEs last season — highest in NFL.

Buccaneers RBs averaged 9.5 yards after the catch last season — 4th-best in NFL. The Bengals allowed 10.7 yards after catch per reception to RBs last season — 2nd-highest in NFL.

Buccaneers WRs averaged 21.4 targets per game last season — 5th-highest in NFL. The Bengals allowed just 8.8 receptions per game to WRs last season — T-lowest in NFL.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers Offense: Important Stats

The Buccaneers averaged -0.52 epa per play on contested throws last season — 3rd-worst in NFL; League Avg: -0.11.

The Buccaneers targeted TEs 15% of the time (86 Pass Attempts/558 plays) last season — lowest in NFL; League Avg: 23%.

The Buccaneers had a third down conversion rate of 10% on contested throws last season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 31%.

The Buccaneers had a third down conversion rate of 35% on first read passes last season — 3rd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 45%.

Cincinnati Bengals Offense: Important Stats

The Bengals averaged -0.34 epa per play against tight coverage last season — 5th-best in NFL; League Avg: -0.50.

The Bengals ran successful plays on 21% of pass attempts on passes when their QB was pressured last season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 28%.

The Bengals averaged just 4.8 yards per play on first drive of the game last season — T-3rd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 5.6.

The Bengals averaged just 5.0 yards per play on motion plays last season — 5th-worst in NFL; League Avg: 5.7.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers Defense: Important Stats

The Buccaneers defense has allowed 86 of 292 (29%) first downs on the ground last season — lowest in NFL; League Avg: 38%.

The Buccaneers defense allowed successful plays on 47% of pass attempts on contested throws last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 33%.

The Buccaneers defense allowed 50.1 receiving yards per game (851/17) to RBs last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 31.0.

Only 11% of the plays ran against the Buccaneers were in the red zone last season — T-2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 15%.

Cincinnati Bengals Defense: Important Stats

The Bengals defense missed 171 tackles last season — most in NFL.

Offenses facing the Bengals targeted TEs 31% of the time (165 Pass Attempts/534 plays) last season — highest in NFL; League Avg: 23%.

The Bengals defense allowed 7.0 yards after the catch (2,446 RAC / 348 receptions) last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 5.2.

The Bengals defense allowed 7.3 yards per dropback (1,173 yards/161 attempts) when targeted at a depth of 1-5 yards last season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 5.6.

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More NFL Betting Predictions:

• Anytime & First Touchdown Scorer Predictions
• Receiving Yards Prop Predictions
• Rushing Yards Prop Predictions
• Passing Yards Prop Predictions
• Receptions Made Prop Predictions
• Rushing Attempts Prop Predictions
• Passing Touchdowns Prop Predictions
• QB Interception Prop Predictions
• Field Goals Made Prop Predictions
• NFL Betting Previews: Every Game

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