- The Chiefs are -5 point favorites vs the Raiders
- Total (Over/Under): 46 points
- Watch this game on CBS
The Kansas City Chiefs (3-0-0) visit Allegiant Stadium to take on the Las Vegas Raiders (3-0-0) on Oct. 4. Kickoff is scheduled for 4:25 pm in Paradise, NV.
The Chiefs are betting favorites in this matchup, with the spread sitting at -5 (-108).
The Chiefs vs. Raiders Over/Under is 46 total points for the game.
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Chiefs vs. Raiders Odds, Spread, Over/Under
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
| Chiefs | -5 -108 | 46 +105 | -210 |
| Raiders | +5 -120 | 46 -140 | +175 |
Chiefs vs. Raiders Prediction
The winning team model predicts the Chiefs will win this game with 66.2% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.
Chiefs vs Raiders Spread Prediction
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Raiders will cover the spread with 53.6% confidence.
This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Chiefs players this game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Chiefs Player Prop Bets Today
- Brashard Smith has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last 7 games (+7.05 Units / 92% ROI)
- Xavier Worthy has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 11 of his last 15 games (+6.50 Units / 38% ROI)
- Patrick Mahomes has hit the Interceptions Over in 9 of his last 13 games (+5.65 Units / 42% ROI)
- Patrick Mahomes has hit the Carries Under in 9 of his last 13 games (+4.80 Units / 33% ROI)
- Kenneth Walker III has hit the Longest Rush Over in 12 of his last 18 games (+4.80 Units / 23% ROI)
And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Raiders players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Raiders Player Prop Best Bets Today
- Ashton Jeanty has hit the Longest Rush Under in 13 of his last 16 games (+9.65 Units / 51% ROI)
- Ashton Jeanty has hit the Rushing Yards Under in 11 of his last 16 games (+5.25 Units / 29% ROI)
- Kirk Cousins has hit the Passing Yards Under in his last 5 games at home (+5.00 Units / 87% ROI)
- Kirk Cousins has hit the TD Passes Over in 6 of his last 11 games (+4.50 Units / 41% ROI)
- Michael Mayer has hit the Receptions Over in 5 of his last 6 games at home (+4.05 Units / 52% ROI)
First Touchdown Scorer Bet for Raiders vs Chiefs
| Player Name | 1st TD Odds |
|---|---|
| Kenneth Walker | +350 |
| Ashton Jeanty | +550 |
| Brock Bowers | +850 |
| Travis Kelce | +850 |
| Rashee Rice | +875 |
Anytime Touchdown Scorer Bet for Raiders vs Chiefs
| Player Name | Anytime TD Odds |
|---|---|
| Kenneth Walker | -175 |
| Ashton Jeanty | -135 |
| Brock Bowers | +125 |
| Travis Kelce | +160 |
| Rashee Rice | +160 |
Receiving Props: Total Receiving Yards for Raiders vs Chiefs
| Player Name | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| Brock Bowers | 76.5 -115 | 76.5 -115 |
| Rashee Rice | 56.5 -115 | 56.5 -115 |
| Travis Kelce | 49.5 -105 | 49.5 -125 |
| Tre Tucker | 36.5 -115 | 36.5 -115 |
| Xavier Worthy | 35.5 -115 | 35.5 -115 |
Rushing Props: Total Rushing Yards for Raiders vs Chiefs
| Player Name | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| Kenneth Walker | 86.5 -115 | 86.5 -115 |
| Ashton Jeanty | 59.5 -115 | 59.5 -115 |
| Mike Washington Jr. | 16.5 -111 | 16.5 -118 |
| Emmett Johnson | 16.5 -120 | 16.5 -110 |
| Patrick Mahomes | 15.5 -115 | 15.5 -115 |
Chiefs Best Bets:
- The Kansas City Chiefs have hit the 1H Team Total Under in 6 of their last 7 away games (+5.20 Units / 66% ROI)
- The Kansas City Chiefs have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 10 of their last 16 games (+3.30 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Kansas City Chiefs have covered the 4Q Spread in 4 of their last 7 away games (+0.90 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Kansas City Chiefs have hit the 2H Moneyline in 9 of their last 16 games (+0.90 Units / 3% ROI)
- The Kansas City Chiefs have hit the 3Q Game Total Under in 4 of their last 7 away games (+0.30 Units / 3% ROI)
Raiders Best Bets:
- The Las Vegas Raiders have hit the 1H Team Total Under in 12 of their last 17 games (+7.50 Units / 37% ROI)
- The Las Vegas Raiders have hit the 2Q Moneyline in 9 of their last 16 games (+6.55 Units / 37% ROI)
- The Las Vegas Raiders have hit the 2H Game Total Over in 9 of their last 15 games (+2.43 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Las Vegas Raiders have covered the 1Q Spread in 6 of their last 9 games at home (+2.15 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Las Vegas Raiders have hit the 3Q Game Total Under in 5 of their last 8 games at home (+1.55 Units / 17% ROI)
Chiefs Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL season, the Chiefs are 2-1 (+0.9 Units / 27.27% ROI).
- Chiefs are 3-0 when betting on the Moneyline for +3 Units / 29.85% ROI
- Chiefs are 1-2 when betting the Over for -1.2 Units / -36.36% ROI
- ChiefsChiefsChiefs are 2-1 when betting the Under for +0.9 Units / 27.27% ROI
Raiders Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL season, the Raiders are 3-0 (+3 Units / 90.91% ROI).
- Raiders are 3-0 when betting on the Moneyline for +5.2 Units / 142.47% ROI
- Raiders are 1-2 when betting the Over for -1.2 Units / -36.36% ROI
- Raiders are 2-1 when betting the Under for +0.9 Units / 27.27% ROI
Kansas City Chiefs: Keys to the Game vs. the Las Vegas Raiders
The Chiefs are 7-2 (.778) when possessing the ball longer than their opponent since the 2025 season — T-7th-best in NFL. The Raiders has allowed an average time of possession of 31 min and 41 s since the 2025 season — highest in NFL.
Chiefs are 2-7 (.222) when making less than 5 explosive passes in a game (T-5th-worst in NFL) and .636 when making 5 or more explosive passes in a game since the 2025 season (10th-best in NFL).
The Chiefs are winless (0-4) when allowing 250 or more passing yards since the 2025 season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .449.
The Chiefs are undefeated (3-0) this season — T-best in NFL; League Avg: .500.
Las Vegas Raiders: Keys to the Game vs. the Kansas City Chiefs
The Raiders are 4-12 (.250) when making less than 7 explosive plays since the 2025 season — T-8th-worst in NFL; League Avg: .423.
The Raiders are 6-14 (.300) since the 2025 season — T-4th-worst in NFL; League Avg: .498.
The Raiders are 1-12 (.077) when allowing 22 or more points since the 2025 season — 6th-worst in NFL; League Avg: .269.
The Raiders are winless (0-3) when allowing more than 3 explosive runs since the 2025 season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .344.
Additional Matchup Notes for Kansas City Chiefs vs. Las Vegas Raiders
The Raiders have been successful on just 34.1% of rush attempts this season — T-3rd-worst in NFL. The Chiefs have allowed a success rate of just 35.1% on rush attempts this season — 5th-best in NFL.
The Raiders have been successful on just 28.0% of rush attempts with motion this season — 2nd-worst in NFL. The Chiefs have allowed a success rate of just 28.6% on rush attempts against motion this season — best in NFL.
The Raiders were successful on just 28.0% of rush attempts last week — 2nd-worst in NFL. The Chiefs allowed a success rate of just 29.0% on rush attempts last week — 4th-best in NFL.
The Chiefs were successful on 53.1% of plays they ran last week — T-4th-best in NFL. The Raiders allowed a success rate of 56.9% last week — 3rd-worst in NFL.
The Chiefs were successful on 90.9% of plays they ran on play action passes last week — 2nd-best in NFL. The Raiders allowed a success rate of 87.5% on play action passes last week — 3rd-worst in NFL.
The Chiefs are 7-2 (.778) when possessing the ball longer than their opponent since the 2025 season — T-7th-best in NFL. The Raiders has allowed an average time of possession of 31 min and 41 s since the 2025 season — highest in NFL.
Kansas City Chiefs Offense: Important Stats
The Chiefs have scored on 67% of their drives (4/6) in the 1st quarter this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 27%.
The Chiefs have started 6 drives inside their own 10 yard line this season — most in NFL.
The Chiefs ran successful plays on 88% of pass attempts on first read passes in Week 3 — T-best in NFL; League Avg: 56%.
The Chiefs have run successful plays on 72% of rush attempts against a stacked front since the 2025 season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 46%.
Las Vegas Raiders Offense: Important Stats
The Raiders have run successful plays on 34% of rush attempts since the 2025 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 43%.
The Raiders have run successful plays on 31% of rush attempts in the 2nd half since the 2025 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 43%.
The Raiders have run successful plays on 28% of rush attempts in the 4th quarter since the 2025 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 41%.
The Raiders have run successful plays on 32% of rush attempts against a base front since the 2025 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 43%.
Kansas City Chiefs Defense: Important Stats
The Chiefs defense has allowed successful plays on 7% of rush attempts in the 3rd quarter this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 45%.
The Chiefs’ opponents have averaged 48.0 Passing Attempts per TD (288 Pass Attempts/6 Passing TDs) in the 2nd half since the 2025 season — best Pass Attempts Per TD rate in NFL; League Avg: 20.5.
The Chiefs defense has allowed 2 TD passes this season — T-fewest in NFL.
The Chiefs defense has allowed 6 touchdowns on 185 completions (30.8 Completions Per TD) in the 2nd half since the 2025 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 13.0.
Las Vegas Raiders Defense: Important Stats
The Raiders defense has forced 12 fumbles this season — most in NFL.
The Raiders defense has not allowed scores on any opponent drives (12 drives) in the 4th quarter this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 37%.
The Raiders defense forced 5 turnovers in Week 3 — T-most in NFL.
The Raiders defense has allowed successful plays on 25% of plays in the 4th quarter this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 43%.
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More NFL Betting Predictions:
- Anytime & First Touchdown Scorer Predictions
- Receiving Yards Prop Predictions
- Rushing Yards Prop Predictions
- Passing Yards Prop Predictions
- Receptions Made Prop Predictions
- Rushing Attempts Prop Predictions
- Passing Touchdowns Prop Predictions
- QB Interception Prop Predictions
- Field Goals Made Prop Predictions
- NFL Betting Previews: Every Game
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