Chiefs vs Broncos: NFL Week 1 Odds, Prediction

Below, bettors can find NFL odds and a Chiefs vs Broncos prediction for their Week 1 MNF matchup.

Chiefs vs Broncos Odds: Spread, Moneyline & Over/Under

Who is Favored to Win Chiefs vs Broncos?

Current prices favor the Chiefs to win on MNF against the Broncos. As a -145 moneyline favorite, Kansas City possesses a 59.2% implied probability to win the game.

Early support favored the Chiefs, who moved from -2.5 at open to -3. Recent support for Denver moved the Chiefs back to a 2.5-point home favorite with their moneyline holding steady at -150.

Broncos vs Chiefs Prediction

Based on the Broncos’ inexperience against good offenses and Kansas City’s presumed ability to run the ball, my Chiefs vs Broncos prediction is the Chiefs Spread (-3, -105).

Confidence here is relatively low given the unknowns surrounding Patrick Mahomes’ health. Additionally, it’s difficult to evaluate this game in a nutshell given the 2025 meetings.

Zero stock should be placed into Denver’s defensive performance in Week 17. Kansas City started Chris Oladokun at quarterback against an elite unit that sold out to stop the run.

A presumably healthy Mahomes, along with the addition of Kenneth Walker, should lead to a higher offensive ceiling against an overestimated Denver defense.

The unit finished fifth in DVOA last year – third against the run, 10th against the pass – but faced the fifth-easiest set of opposing offenses.

In fact, the defense faced 47% of snaps against quarterbacks 30th or worse in EPA per play, per Clevta Analytics.

What’s most concerning about the Broncos is that inferior offenses played well. Marcus Mariota led the Commanders to 26 points while the Giants scored 32 points in Denver.

Both teams achieved success by relying on their tight ends. Zach Ertz notched 10 receptions for 103 yards while Giants tight ends amassed 154 yards on six receptions.

Whether an aging Travis Kelce can achieve the same feat remains to be seen. If there’s room for optimism, it’s that he notched nine receptions and 91 yards against Denver in Week 11.

Both ranked as season highs for Kelce.

For as much optimism as I have in Kansas City moving the ball, I enter the game concerned about the defense.

Corner remains a question mark against the Broncos. Even after re-signing L’Jarius Sneed and drafting Mansoor Delane, they still have to face Jaylen Waddle and Courtland Sutton.

It might be enough to keep me off the Chiefs on a key number unless the spread moves in Denver’s direction.